The BIGGEST (and maybe the BEST, yes I said it) WRITE-UP on the board for this Sunday: DOLPHINS@JETS

scalabrine:

It's often been said that the public bets teams and wiseguys bet numbers. What would the number have to be for you walk away from betting the Dolphins?

All the things the OP posted is why I would take the Jets here.

They know they've been playing poorly, they will now put extra effort, focus and energy into this weeks practice to right the ship.

That's called "REGRESSION TO THE MEAN".

The Jets are playing on a unsustainable poor level of play, and the further a team plays below their averages they tend to play that much  further above their averages when they come-out of that poor play.

Don't be surprise if that describes the Jets this weekend............................. 

theclaw,

Just out of curiosity, why can you say that the above theory will come to fruition this week? I mean, couldn't you say the same thing every week about Jacksonville and Tampa Bay? Or Philly when they were slumping? Or Washington?

I mean I guess my point is. Isn't it impossible to tell when a team is going to "come out of their slump"? If you used the "regression to the mean" theory for every team that is slumping, it seems like it is a total crapshoot?

I could be missing something though. BOL

All the things the OP posted is why I would take the Jets here.

They know they've been playing poorly, they will now put extra effort, focus and energy into this weeks practice to right the ship.

That's called "REGRESSION TO THE MEAN".

The Jets are playing on a unsustainable poor level of play, and the further a team plays below their averages they tend to play that much  further above their averages when they come-out of that poor play.

Don't be surprise if that describes the Jets this weekend............................. 

In honor of Colin Cowherd and his AWFUL "Blazing 5" picks....I made a list of 5 picks that are my initial top 5 leans. I MIGHT play them all in Vegas or just a few of them. I don't like playing TOO many games because that can possibly lead to a bankroll disaster if not careful.

(BUT with all due respect to Cowherd, last year he did pretty damn solid with his "Blazing 5")

My top 5 plays on the card would be as follows:

Chicago, Miami, Houston, San Diego, and NYG.

Again these are subject to change. But after doing a little research (and I mean a little) these are the 5 that I would probably play. I've been slumping BAD in NFL betting the last few weeks (maybe Vegas is what I need to come out of that slump?) Lol but in all honesty, I would take a 3-2 card and run like hell

My biggest fear is going out there and getting overly excited and start doing stuff I normally wouldn't haha.

I enjoy having more or less a 1 on 1 chat/discussing games in a small group so I will probably use this thread as a place to do that. I HATE popping into various threads, making a post, and then never visiting that thread again. Haha. Let's kill the books this weekened buddy

All the things the OP posted is why I would take the Jets here.

They know they've been playing poorly, they will now put extra effort, focus and energy into this weeks practice to right the ship.

That's called "REGRESSION TO THE MEAN".

The Jets are playing on a unsustainable poor level of play, and the further a team plays below their averages they tend to play that much  further above their averages when they come-out of that poor play.

Don't be surprise if that describes the Jets this weekend............................. 

There is no reason to wager on this game, it's a 3-4 point game and either team could win this division matchup....much smarter plays out there this week. Let the rookies waste their time trying to figure out this one..