8. The Cover - The bookies are unable to adjust the line for more extreme situations such as these.
The books simply can't lay more than 3 to the Bills here even though they know they should. They can't break a certain rule they have for away/home line comparison.im jet fan.i NEVER PLAY THEM.2 DAY I WILL...big article 4 easy call..gl
The traditional line shift from home to away is 6/6.5/7 (more with stronger home fields).
If the Jets were at the Bills, a line shift of 6.5 would be -3.5 Bills in Buffalo.
This makes sense to them given the 4-3 above .500 Bills would lay .5 point more than what the Jets are laying here to the 1-6 below .500 visiting Jets who would be just as desperate but still must win in a tough venue.
I say that rule is crap and is to our advantage.
There is NO RUNNING game on the Bills. There is a backup who contemplated retiring not just a few months ago. There is a Jets team with a coach and QB on life support who will knock over their own grandmother to get the ball in the end zone today.
But the books simply can't give out a proper line of 6-6.5 and even 7. Now that would be a tougher and more ballsy line.
Before you say the line is 'right where it should be', consider the Skins/Titans line last week which, with all the Kirk Cousins hysteria, got to 7 for the Skins at home. Skins were 1-5 playing the 2-4 Titans.
Does anyone here really believe this ravaged Bills team, also playing their backup QB, with no RB's in this spot, coming off a emotional high from last week's win, against a much more dependable Jets team that has hung tough with the Broncos and Patriots and jumped out to a 21-3 lead at Lambeau this year, is worth 4 points LESS than what the lousy Skins gave the Titans?
No way in hell!
Yes, the Skins only won by 2 but there are too many problems to list on this page as to why that is, starting with a massive overvaluing of Kirk Cousins by the public. Still the books made them lay 7 as a public team.
That is why 3 is a bargain.
And please, to the posters who will play the Bills, don't let your ONE counterargument be: The Bills run defense is great and the Jets will have trouble moving the ball on the ground.
Wrong. The trio of RB's the Jets have will still be able to counter that. Maybe not with 200+ yards like last week, but enough to get over this number. Geno will be going all out today too.
9. One big con to betting the Jets
They simply do not force turnovers and that is a problem.
They have an atrocious 1 INT ALL YEAR!!! And only 2 forced fumble recoveries.
This is because of the backups and rookies in their secondary putting a lot more pressure on the front 7.
If the Jets limit their turnovers, they'll be fine. But lose the ball and they'll have to make up those points with 80 yard drives. The encouraging stat? Zero TO's against the Pats last week.
I wouldn't worry as much this week about this given Rex called out his underperforming secondary, to at a minimum, be more aggressive and get the ball in the hands of green jerseys.
So we have argued sufficiently with ample evidence for a WIN and a COVER. What more do you want?
The line is fishy? I just can't do it! 70% of the public is on the Jets! Covers bloodbath coming! All of that is meaningless and is your own anxiety pushing you to play with much less info and far worse spots. All of the same was said about the Broncos just a few days ago against the Chargers. All of it will be said every single NFL week from now until the end of time on this board.
4 stars
The pick:
Jets -3 OVER Bills
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