There's a Statement Game this week

Everyone thinks the Pats are back and we are headed for Brady-Manning # whatever for the AFC Championship? Not so fast. The Colts are going to crash that party. They are better than New England, but America doesn't know it yet. This is a classic statement game where everyone gets to find out. The Colts are physical this year and it's turned them into contenders much more so than Luck throwing for millions of points. They have a sack now and can hold their own against NE who bullied them in last year's playoff game. The tide has turned and the better team should get it done.

I've watched KC the last two weeks and they are not good. I'm sorry, but you can't be dogs to the Bills and then favs against Seattle, I don't care where the games are played. KC's pass rush masks a lot of problems. Wilson should mitigate that with his legs though. Seattle leads the NFL in rush YPC and rush TDs. KC is a run team too, only they aren't as good. The difference is though the Seahawks have the best run D in the league while the Chiefs are #30. No reason Seattle shouldn't run wild here. Better team getting 4 more points than they should be.

Not a believer in the Browns. They've been out gained on the year and their run game has been woefully inefficient since their Pro Bowl center went down. Watt should have a game here. Texans off a bye and this is basically a playoff game for them. Too much being made of the switch to Mallett. He's been in the league for four years and in this system for over half that time with O'Brien. He should be ready, and if you've watched Ryan Fitzpatrick you know Mallett is a huge upgrade. Clowney and Cushing back for Houston too. Give me the points.

I'd normally look to buy low and bet a team off some blowout losses. But there is more selling to be done. The Bears are putrid, have a ton of turmoil, and should throw in the towel here. I love betting against teams that were contenders coming into the season and now have nothing to play for. They usually lay down like dogs. Minny is young, hungry, improving, rested, and will be a play-on the rest of the year. Chicago is old, unmotivated, and playing out the string of a 10+ loss season.

GL.

Great to see you back posting. 

Excellent point. My initial lean on this game was KC but I'm slowly coming around to SEA. 

GL

KC is #30 in YPC allowed. I don't look at total yards. Meaningless. DVOA is kinder to KC but it is still #3 vs #21 in rush D. KC has a bad rush defense by any measure. Turbin and Micheal actually have better YPC numbers than Lynch and SEA is very high on them.

KC #16 in defensive DVOA. They just don't pass the eye test either. I've watched them play extensively the last two weeks and they are very underwhelming. Their great ATS record won't last and they'll come crashing back. 

Like your picks except Indy , while Indy is a very good team at home, the biggest games are where Brady and the pats excel, so being dogs that they are, pats is a better choice for the gambler risk/reward scenario, for example if this game goes down to the wire and is won by a field goal, pats backers walk away with a draw or win, my money is on Brady and the pats! 

Bol!

Interesting thing on Browns is they ave 7.4 per pass while giving-up 5.8, that's a 1.6 diff, one of the best in the league.

And their defense is no.1 in yards per point.

They have played quite well recently and may be due a regression but maybe not just yet.

I do have a best bet fade on Pats with a regression method this week, Pats coming off back-to-back games playing on the field no where-near what the final score suggested, this is not maintainable.