I threw down this parlay for this weekend. It seems almost too easy of a 3 teamer. I get it's too late since I've made the bet, but anyone have any reasons why or why not this will be a winner?
Packers at Miami - I took Green Bay -3. I bought a half of a point. Green Bay is on fire right now, and I don't really see anyone slowing them down.
New England at Buffalo - I took the Pats -3. They are just getting in their groove and I am still not sold on Buffalo being a real threat in any way.
Baltimore at Tampa Bay - I took the Ravens -3.5. Tampa is awful. Yeah, they have been playing well, but I don't think it will last. Baltimore will limit anything Glennon will attempt to get going. And the TB run game won't do much against the LBs in Baltimore.
$50 pays $255 and my money back for a total of $305. Again, any reasons why this is a good or bad wager? Just curious. First time post on this site. Thanks!
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
I threw down this parlay for this weekend. It seems almost too easy of a 3 teamer. I get it's too late since I've made the bet, but anyone have any reasons why or why not this will be a winner?
Packers at Miami - I took Green Bay -3. I bought a half of a point. Green Bay is on fire right now, and I don't really see anyone slowing them down.
New England at Buffalo - I took the Pats -3. They are just getting in their groove and I am still not sold on Buffalo being a real threat in any way.
Baltimore at Tampa Bay - I took the Ravens -3.5. Tampa is awful. Yeah, they have been playing well, but I don't think it will last. Baltimore will limit anything Glennon will attempt to get going. And the TB run game won't do much against the LBs in Baltimore.
$50 pays $255 and my money back for a total of $305. Again, any reasons why this is a good or bad wager? Just curious. First time post on this site. Thanks!
It certainly could hit but the odds are definitely against it. You've got 3 road teams playing mediocre teams. Tampas defense is awful but their offense with glennon isn't. The bills have the best defense in the nfl and a very lively loyal crowd that will be loud. Miami might win that game straight up , green bays run defense is terrible and miami isn't as bad as you think.
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It certainly could hit but the odds are definitely against it. You've got 3 road teams playing mediocre teams. Tampas defense is awful but their offense with glennon isn't. The bills have the best defense in the nfl and a very lively loyal crowd that will be loud. Miami might win that game straight up , green bays run defense is terrible and miami isn't as bad as you think.
Bills are tough. NE still is flawed offensively and that game could come down to a FG either way. It certainly has a solid chance of hitting, but three road games while giving points is always scary in the NFL regardless of the opponent.
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Bills are tough. NE still is flawed offensively and that game could come down to a FG either way. It certainly has a solid chance of hitting, but three road games while giving points is always scary in the NFL regardless of the opponent.
I know the odds of hitting parlays in general are bad, but I've hit 2 already this year and my friend has hit 1. I live in Wisconsin but I can't stand the Packers, but I don't see anyone slowing them down. As much as it pains me to say that.
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I know the odds of hitting parlays in general are bad, but I've hit 2 already this year and my friend has hit 1. I live in Wisconsin but I can't stand the Packers, but I don't see anyone slowing them down. As much as it pains me to say that.
Did you watch the bear packer game 2 weeks ago? I did, there were huge holes in the defense that you could've drove an 18 wheeler threw. If not for some ridiculously bad judgement by jay cutler that game would've been a shoot out of epic proportions, as the packers never really stopped chicago, cutler stopped chicago.
I will say rodgers, along with wilson, luck , manning and rivers is one of, if not, the best qb, and maybe the best player in all of football. But he don't play defense, and i don't care what they did on 3 days rest against christian ponder, throw that game out, it means nothing.
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Did you watch the bear packer game 2 weeks ago? I did, there were huge holes in the defense that you could've drove an 18 wheeler threw. If not for some ridiculously bad judgement by jay cutler that game would've been a shoot out of epic proportions, as the packers never really stopped chicago, cutler stopped chicago.
I will say rodgers, along with wilson, luck , manning and rivers is one of, if not, the best qb, and maybe the best player in all of football. But he don't play defense, and i don't care what they did on 3 days rest against christian ponder, throw that game out, it means nothing.
I agree with you on the defense. But Miami's offense isn't really an answer. With Moreno out, who I think is MUCH better than Miller, and a sub par QB, I don't know if Miami can keep up. If Brees or Rivers was playing the Dolphins, I would take them -3 as well.
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I agree with you on the defense. But Miami's offense isn't really an answer. With Moreno out, who I think is MUCH better than Miller, and a sub par QB, I don't know if Miami can keep up. If Brees or Rivers was playing the Dolphins, I would take them -3 as well.
Miami offense is terrible Moreno is still out I believe don't look at the Raider game as a true judgement of them offensively I would play GB-3 AND under the 50 points on that game
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Miami offense is terrible Moreno is still out I believe don't look at the Raider game as a true judgement of them offensively I would play GB-3 AND under the 50 points on that game
The Packers seem to be favored by 3 just about everywhere, so I'm not sure why you had to buy half a point.
Some sites have the Pats favored by just 2.5, and laying that instead of laying 3 would have been much better.
Likewise with the Ravens. I see some sites have them favored by 3, and that would have been better than laying 3.5
Your payout of 5.1 to 1 (or 6.1 FOR 1, if you prefer it expressed that way) is low. Assuming you have a 50% chance of winning each game, you will only win this bet one time in eight. (.50^3) If there were no house edge, you'd see a payout of 7 to 1. As it is, you're bucking a house edge of 23.75%! (1 - (305/400)) That's huge! That's much, much higher than the normal 4.55% house edge for straight (11 to win 10) bets.
Even assuming you have a 6% edge on each game (a 53% chance of winning each game vs. a 47% chance of losing it), the chances of winning all three bets are still only .53^3 or .1488. Given that, out of 100 such scenarios, you win $255.00 14.9 times, for a profit of $3,799.5, but you'd lose your $50.00 bet 85.1 times, for a loss of -$4,255.00. After 100 scenarios you're in the hole to the tune of -$455.50.
So no, I see nothing "good" about the wager nor do I see any "free money" here. Sorry.
Good luck with your bet.
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The Packers seem to be favored by 3 just about everywhere, so I'm not sure why you had to buy half a point.
Some sites have the Pats favored by just 2.5, and laying that instead of laying 3 would have been much better.
Likewise with the Ravens. I see some sites have them favored by 3, and that would have been better than laying 3.5
Your payout of 5.1 to 1 (or 6.1 FOR 1, if you prefer it expressed that way) is low. Assuming you have a 50% chance of winning each game, you will only win this bet one time in eight. (.50^3) If there were no house edge, you'd see a payout of 7 to 1. As it is, you're bucking a house edge of 23.75%! (1 - (305/400)) That's huge! That's much, much higher than the normal 4.55% house edge for straight (11 to win 10) bets.
Even assuming you have a 6% edge on each game (a 53% chance of winning each game vs. a 47% chance of losing it), the chances of winning all three bets are still only .53^3 or .1488. Given that, out of 100 such scenarios, you win $255.00 14.9 times, for a profit of $3,799.5, but you'd lose your $50.00 bet 85.1 times, for a loss of -$4,255.00. After 100 scenarios you're in the hole to the tune of -$455.50.
So no, I see nothing "good" about the wager nor do I see any "free money" here. Sorry.
It's going to be near 90 and humid in Miami. With GB running their no huddle hurry up, their D is going to be on the field all the time and will be completely gassed.
Last week everyone was saying NE was done now everyone thinks they're great again.......This line is so far off- it's saying NE would be -9 at home ? haha
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I'm opposite all 3.
It's going to be near 90 and humid in Miami. With GB running their no huddle hurry up, their D is going to be on the field all the time and will be completely gassed.
Last week everyone was saying NE was done now everyone thinks they're great again.......This line is so far off- it's saying NE would be -9 at home ? haha
I agree with you on the defense. But Miami's offense isn't really an answer. With Moreno out, who I think is MUCH better than Miller, and a sub par QB, I don't know if Miami can keep up. If Brees or Rivers was playing the Dolphins, I would take them -3 as well.
Moreno is playing.
You should stay away from Fins games, you don't seem to know this team at all.
Btw. Rivers did play Miami last year...and lost.
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Quote Originally Posted by baugs112:
I agree with you on the defense. But Miami's offense isn't really an answer. With Moreno out, who I think is MUCH better than Miller, and a sub par QB, I don't know if Miami can keep up. If Brees or Rivers was playing the Dolphins, I would take them -3 as well.
Moreno is playing.
You should stay away from Fins games, you don't seem to know this team at all.
It certainly could hit but the odds are definitely against it. You've got 3 road teams playing mediocre teams. Tampas defense is awful but their offense with glennon isn't. The bills have the best defense in the nfl and a very lively loyal crowd that will be loud. Miami might win that game straight up , green bays run defense is terrible and miami isn't as bad as you think.
What do you call an Eternal Optimist? An accordion player with a beeper!
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Quote Originally Posted by degengambler34:
It certainly could hit but the odds are definitely against it. You've got 3 road teams playing mediocre teams. Tampas defense is awful but their offense with glennon isn't. The bills have the best defense in the nfl and a very lively loyal crowd that will be loud. Miami might win that game straight up , green bays run defense is terrible and miami isn't as bad as you think.
I'd be very shocked if this one hit. You've got 3 popular road teams, laying points. The percentages on 3 public road favorites parlay are probably shockingly low...I do wish you luck though
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I'd be very shocked if this one hit. You've got 3 popular road teams, laying points. The percentages on 3 public road favorites parlay are probably shockingly low...I do wish you luck though
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