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Thoughts on Ravens/Eagles (**Long**

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Posted: #1
Been a while.  Been posting NFL for a lot of years here.  Some of you know I am a season ticket holder for the Ravens and they are by far my most successful team to bet on or against in any sport because I am not biased at all.  Close to a 90% clip lifetime in Ravens regular season games (rare loss came last year in Colts backdoor).

Anyways, here are my thoughts on the game:

First, you always have to start with key injuries.  Reed left with a hamstring strain, but it appears to be minor so he should be good to go.  Keep an eye on this because you know he will bait Vick into a turnover or two.  The Eagles just resigned Gilyard at receiver which leads me to believe that Maclin might not play this week with a hip pointer.  Very big to watch as this will be a big blow to the Eagles offense.

Now, for perception.  The Ravens looked fantastic in most aspects of the game last week and everyone got to see it on Monday night.  The Eagles looked awful especially on offense in Cleveland and were lucky to escape with a win.  Everybody knows this, but remember nobody is as good or as bad as they look in one week in the NFL especially when you are talking about the difference between playing at home and on the road.  Remember Baltimore is the best home team in the NFL...19-1 last 20 home games.  Week 1 magnifies this difference sometimes as well.  Remember, the Ravens looked unbeatable last year rolling Pittsburgh in week 1 35-7 and then lost the next week on the road to a bad Titans team.  They did this again later in the year beating the Texans at home easily then losing at Jacksonville the next week.  They also lost at Seattle after beating Pitt for a second time in Pittsburgh so this group has shown that they are vulnerable to a road letdown after a big win the previous week.

Not only is this a letdown spot for the Ravens coming off a big divisional win at home, but it is also a short week after a Monday night game before heading out on the road (albeit small travel) and a potential flat spot as they could easily come in overconfident after blowing out the Bengals in every facet of the game.  The biggest key imo is who the Ravens have on deck...New England at home on Sunday night with gigantic playoff revenge.  You know they want that game bad so this is a potential lookahead/sandwich spot as well.  

You would think you'd get the Eagles best refocused effort after last week's debacle so the situational edge here is clearly in Philadelphia's favor.

Now, for the matchups.  The Ravens D looked decent, but not great last week.  They made plays when they had to, but looked vulnerable against speed in space (Hawkins) and the running game.  Without Suggs, they will also struggle to generate a consistent push and pressure.  The Eagles can take advantage of this by pounding Mccoy, running screens for Jackson, getting Mccoy the ball in the receiving game and designing runs for Vick.  Eagles are one of the better screen teams in the NFL and I think you need to run a bunch to beat this Ravens defense.  Ray Lewis is still a great LB because of his instincts/preparation, but he has lost a step in coverage and can be exploited with Mccoy/Celek catches/Vick runs.  The Ravens have a solid secondary and as always, are very opportunistic in forcing turnovers.  Webb is a top 3 corner and can run step for step with Jackson.  Williams is as solid as they come and his upside is limitless.  Jimmy Smith is the third corner with solid man up skills, but just needs to improve his ball awareness.  Combine those with Reed lurking behind and you will have problems if you try to throw 40 times a game especially with a turnover machine like Vick.  The question becomes will Andy Reid actually try to run the ball and feed Celek/Mccoy while getting the ball to Jackson in space?  He should, but how many bad game plans have we all seen Reid implement?

When the Ravens are on offense, they will be running their no huddle passing attack that Flacco looks like he has been running for years after week 1.  He has weapons all over the field and Rice is always available out of the backfield if he is not helping out in protections which he excels at.  The problem the Ravens might run into here is running a no huddle on the road isn't as easy with crowd noise especially matched up against a team with a great pass rush that likes to blitz backed by talented corners.  The Ravens have some young pieces on the offensive line that got to still be in an adjustment period learning how to block together in a no huddle (get the play seconds before the snap).  I still have questions about their tackle position despite last week.  The no huddle might keep some subs from happening, but the Eagles won't have to worry about their D line tiring because they are very deep across the board there.  If I'm the Ravens, I actually come out and surprise the Eagles by going back to their old style by running Rice 35+ times.  I don't buy any of the Eagles LB's or safeties and Leach would have a field day blowing them up to open up holes for Rice.  I doubt they do so Pitta/Rice/Boldin will have to be big in the quick passing game as Flacco tries to deal with their pressure.  Deep balls to Smith could have some success, but will Flacco have the time?

Remember the Ravens have a rookie kicker playing on the road for the first time.  As a Ravens fan, I know how this could impact a game which should be close.

Another thing to keep in mind is the Ravens backup is Tyrod Taylor, a very fast running QB that gives the Ravens a lot of practice in facing a speedy QB who can take off like Vick.

One stat in the Ravens favor is the Eagles have not been a great home team the last few years especially in home openers.  Reid is 4-9 in home openers in Philly and 1-5 the last 6.  The last three road teams to win the Eagles home opener all went on to win the Super Bowl.  If the Ravens become the fourth, they will have to win in one of the toughest situational spots possible.

I am leaning Philadelphia and the over as of right now, but want to explore a few more angles/get updated injury reports before I lock anything else in.  I will also be at this game in all Ravens gear so it could be an odd day with my money and heart in different places.  

Ramble over.  Would love to hear more thoughts/angles....
 
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Posted: #2
Now, for something useful...

Plays I did lock in:

Detroit Lions +7 -125

St Louis Rams +3 -104

New York Jets +6 -106

Atlanta Falcons -3 -115




 
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Posted: #3
 IM A BIG RAVENS FAN BRO LET KICK ASS AND TAKE NAMES LATER
 
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Posted: #4

Kc moved the ball with ease in the 1st half against that Atl def & they also lost Grimes for the season, Peyton's no huddle might dissect it

good luck this week with your plays

 
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Posted: #5
 ST. LOUIS ALWAYS PLAY THE SKINS GOOD AT HOME

A SMALL ML PLAY I THINK WORTH A FEW BEANS
 
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Posted: #6
Eagles win by 6 imo..............
 
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Posted: #7
Stuckey thats skill son!!  Ravens are a sick squad i know. But something gotta pick n choose ur battles..live to fight another day!!
 
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by PrimeTimeBoys:

Eagles win by 6 imo..............
 REMEMBER I TOLD YOU SO
 
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Posted: #9
As a life-long Jets fan, I think you'll regret that Jets pick.  Love DET and ATL though
 
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Posted: #10
If your leaning Philly I would lay off the game completely. I just can't see investing money on a dumb QB that is one of the worst decision makers in the NFL. Like u said the Ravens D should have some fun baiting him. If u are on the Ravens u want Vick to have a little early success so Reid falls in love with the pass. The more Vick has the ball the better for Ravens backers. IMO he is just a fast guy w/physical skills.......but as dumb as they come
 
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Posted: #11
Against you on every play.  SF still doesn't get the pub they deserve as the most complete team in the League.  They should be the odds on NFC Champion at this point.  I agree that WAS/STL is essentially a pick, but you're betting that WAS performance was a mirage while the "real" STL will emerge this week.  I think WAS wins a close one, wouldn't be surprised if we all push.  PIT in a must win situation against a team that took advantage of opportunities against a weak opponent.  Think PIT wins, only question is if 6 is too much.  And Peyton Manning with something to prove and in a dome against an ATL team that tends to shrink in playoff type atmospheres.  Give me the 3.
 
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Posted: #12
You are one crazy SOB to be wearing the other team's jersey in Philadelphia. Get right with your maker before entering the stadium.
 
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Posted: #13
Lol who would be afraid of a stadium?
 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by Getty3:

You are one crazy SOB to be wearing the other team's jersey in Philadelphia. Get right with your maker before entering the stadium.
it not like that up there no more those were the late 70's early 80's
 
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Posted: #15
Stuckey, you are one of the few capper I respect around here. love the right-up. I think your spot on with your assessment. I watched both games in week one, but i must say Baltimore looks very strong. I think Philly matches up way better that Cincy did, so I would also agree about leaning Philly. Lets see what some of the less, accomplished cappers think. i have a feeling public and the forum will be leaning Baltimore.
 
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Posted: #16
 
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Posted: #17
Love this essay.  Unreal.  I feel the same about BAL's D, it really didn't impress me.  Looking at the final score it appears to be a blowout game but Cincy was in it up until midway through the third...that Boldin TD shouldn't have counted IMO and really changed the game.

Anyways, I lean PHI as well, but not by much.  I have them winning this game by one point lol. 22-21.  So I planned on making it a no play but if you end up betting PHI I might drop a bit on the ML.


 
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Posted: #18
Great write up man. 

I love reading the analysis of people who are real fans of the team and fully understand their squad.

I also agree with the Philly lean. I have the game capped at Philly -3.5. That works under the assumption that Baltimore scores 21 points. After watching the Ravens, their offense is clearly capable of doing this. The thing that scares me is if you factor in their relative performance at home vs Cincinnati's road defense. They actually achieved a 2 standard deviation outperformance above their home average. This is a significant statistical outlier. If you factor in mean reversion in relative performance, I have them scoring closer to 14 on the road. Philly Defense is tough so I see Baltimore actually scoring 16. My system, factoring in mean reversion for Baltimore, sees this as 24-16 Philly.
 
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Posted: #19
Nice write up.
 
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Posted: #20
Flacco, Ray Rice  & Co are re gonna put up big numbers and are way better than anything Cleveland could throw at Philly. True, the speed and talent is there, but Eagles lack 'something' to win games; 4 INTs vs Clewill not cut it ve baltimore; and Vick will be tackled and pummeled much harder.I think you should back your Ravens here.
 
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Posted: #21
Quote Originally Posted by Quantum_Leap:

Flacco, Ray Rice  & Co are re gonna put up big numbers and are way better than anything Cleveland could throw at Philly. True, the speed and talent is there, but Eagles lack 'something' to win games; 4 INTs vs Clewill not cut it ve baltimore; and Vick will be tackled and pummeled much harder.I think you should back your Ravens here.

I think the Maclin injury is crucial, but could be somewhat negated by the Ravens not being at full strength. Not having Suggs is big for their pass rush. I think too much is being made about the Ed Reed injury. I think he could have come back in to play, but it just wasn't necessary at that point. Having said that, the potential that he could retire after the season speaks volumes of his physical condition. Though he will certainly play, I don't think it will be at 100%. Injuries at his age are magnified in their effect.
 
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Posted: #22
Thanks, Stuckey. Always love your take on these games.

I'm rolling with the Eagles as well, but waiting to hear about the injuries. Especially Maclin's iffy hip-pointer. He was fantastic. Jackson had the harder matchup w/ Haden, but I still think Maclin is the most complete and versatile receiver on the team when he's healthy. There is going to be an injury update on him today coming from the Eagles, so look for news soon.

IMO...Vick is just so, so bad sometimes. So hard for me to bet the Eagles. They never cease to disappoint. But in his defense, their offense was fine when they stayed clear of penalties. They had a 74-yard TD drive right before half on 5 plays, and of course the 91-yard drive with 6 minutes left. Vick was good when he needed to be, on that final drive.

Eagles had 12 penalties for 110 yards in the game, 4 of which were offensive holding. Their offense looked frustrated by it, and Vick said himself that his guys noticed his lack of confidence in the huddle and were puzzled by his lack of composure. He has been tweeting and interviewing and rambling non-stop the past month about how focused he is for the season. The pressure that he faced on Sunday was very much self-inflicted, so it's not surprising if he was just rattled in the moment by how awful things were going. Who knows. Probably silly to speculate. But I still think he's a leader and this team has full confidence in him, so maybe this first win will take a load off. The Eagles always underachieve, but I have to think Vick will be way more polished and they'll have fewer boneheaded penalties. 

Even though Philly has been bad in home-openers, they only lost by a touchdown the last 2 years against very tough Giants and Packers teams, and in 2009 they lost 48-22 to the Saints -- but that was Kolb's NFL debut, and he threw three picks. The year before that they crushed the Rams, and anything prior to that is irrelevant. Philly has a good home crowd, even though they're a bunch of a-holes.

I saw the line open at -1, but it was bet to -2.5 within 5 minutes. Wish I had took it. At this point, it looks like it has settled (and it will probably be mostly Ravens' money coming in), so I'm just holding out and seeing what happens with those injuries.

Will be on the Rams and Jets as well, but will probably taking SF in a ML parlay with the Bengals. Curious as to what you see in the Lions. A lot of sharp people seem to be down on the Steelers and Lions this year, and I think they've got a bad matchup with the 49ers. Lions just seem so predictable with no run game, and that defense is suspect. Although...7 is a lot of points to lay w/ a conservative 49ers offense, and w/ the ability for Stafford to gun it deep at any moment.

Thanks again for sharing.
 
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Posted: #23
via RotoWorld

Jeremy Maclin (hip) will not practice on Wednesday.

It's not a good sign, but coach Andy Reid was quick to note that Maclin has not been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Ravens. He did participate in the morning walkthrough and has a history of playing through injury drama. This remains a fluid, day-to-day situation.
 
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Posted: #24
stuckey- what do you think about teasing that ravens line up to +11? i love going through all those key numbers, but i hate playing on a road team.

thanks for any input!
 
 
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Posted: #25
I appreciate this so much, thanks bro

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