To begin, even though last week was a 6-1 ATS week, losing that last game on Monday night really hurt. Probably bc I wasn't expecting any "surprises" like Darnold missing the game in lieu of Flacco. Most people, including myself, would have thought of that as a gift. But I think the NE Defense also did, took him and the offense with returning WR's lightly, and were ALMOST completely embarrassed on MNF. In the end, it wasn't close and just an overall terrible affair to even have on the television.
Which brings me to tonights game...not sure about other handicappers, but I actually DO research and come out with teams and sides that I think have a 70% or higher chance of winning ATS. If that % is anywhere in the ballpark of 70% for a SU win, it becomes a big play. So when looking into tonights game, I'm a bit miffed at the line movements. But, when putting things into analytic circumstances, there is an actual play on the game, so i have to respect the numbers.
INDIANAPOLIS (PK): So, the Colts are on the road, in what should be a chilly affair, against a team that is ahead of them by 1 game in the race for the AFC Central. Yet the Colts have moved as a favorite, underdog, and now a PK. Taking analytics out of this, i would push for a Titans win at home, where they seem to always play close affairs and come back to win. ESPECIALLY given the line in tonights game. But if that were the case, and if the NFL was this easy, why wouldn't the Colts be a 3 point UNDERDOG? It's because they are going to ride their defense, a running game, and a low scoring game to victory. Add in that the Colts are 13-4 ATS in the last 17 meetings and, if that wasn't enough, are 6-2 ATS in the last 8 in Tennessee. I think this is close, Rivers does VERY well lifetime against Tennessee, almost as bad as he is vs. Baltimore, and I"m going to bite.
I am also going to give out a play in soccer, which is by a wide margin my best sport. It begins at 11:45 PST so keep that in mind if you are interested. And it's not because i live in the United States am i giving this play, it's because I truly believe in it. A bit of a longshot, yes, but still in my opinion lots of value.
USA MNT (PK) +105: I understand the best U.S. player is NOT going to be playing, and thats Pulisic. But I also understand their opponent and the Welsh have very few top class players, outside of Garreth Bale and Ben Davies. They have already said Bale is NOT starting, so the U.S. doesn't have to worry about 60 minutes or so of his relentless speed and skill on the field. Ben Davies is solid (plays for Tottenham), but is not going to be game changer against this crop of U.S. talent. Since the game is being played in Europe, most of the U.S. team will be European based players, which is a VERY good thing. They know how the game is played out there, don't have to adjust to any time differences, and are the best the United States has to offer. The list of Weston McKennie (Juventus), Sergino Dest (Barcelona), Zac Steffen (Manchester City), Gio Reyna (Dortmund), and Yunus Musah (17 yr. old Valencia player with Italian and English ties but chose U.S.), will form a core for many years to come. But they will also be super motivated in a "friendly" to at least keep the score close, if not surprise with a win. I think Berhalter is a solid coach, the matchup is right, and a PK at least will guarantee if a tie happens, you don't lose. Full disclosure, I played this two days ago at +1/4 which means i win half my bet if it ties, but the PK is still very valuable.
As always, open to comments, but keep them productive. Tail or fade, good luck to all...
write up by the way mah man 
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