Thursday Night pre-Christmas degenerate special....

@supermanbets

 He's right

Tennessee is at a buy low or SF is buy high. TN gets back 2 huge weapons tonight, being down Henry is massive but taking away the No 1 & 2 receivers, every team in NFL would put up dismal numbers. This appears to one on of those games where it's just so obvious to take SF, but if that worked every time they wouldn't let us bet.

Most importantly, be on the correct side of the bs that seems to happen whenever football is played at night.

@LGG79

 @Vegas11787

The problem with that thinking is you are heavily dependent on believing that “80%” of the money is on a certain side. There is absolutely no way of knowing this and if you believe in sites that release that info then I have some Incredible beachfront property in Vatican City to sell you. It makes absolutely no sense for a sportsbook to release that info to people. Why would they?? Why give any possible edge. Why show people your books, your inside operational numbers. No company would do this 

@Vegas11787

 Oh ok. It just seemed kinda logic, because it changed a normal behavior from a line movement perspective. 

In regards to the Titans left tackle and left guard, do you think Vrabel did something about that? 

Goodluck with that Titan bet. Im still deciding. 

Trying to catch up here...

But HCG in my thread???  Drop the phone.

Now to the topics....

Merry Christmas!

HCG....

The stat you make about the Titans being 2nd against the rush....

If we look at the whole season, not adjusted for strength of schedule - using a marker like yards or YPP - maybe?

But lets look at them adjusted for SOS.  17th (football outsiders DVOA).

Now....  Lets look at them adjusted for SOS in the last 6 weeks.... 31st!!!

So the same stat that looks great suddenly becomes a little clearer that it might not be that great.  Anyway....  It is great to see you - great to see that you are still doing your thing.  Much respect for the comeback.

Totally agree PA. Its tuff to know if that 80% is authentic. So many sources out there and they all seem different in percentages. 

Vegas11787,  was chiming in on what is actually a reverse line movement. 

And until someone can make the argument otherwise...  I totally think those "numbers" are complete BS designed to make money off of rubes and to confuse people.  Thats all.

Look - for something like reverse line movement - something it seems everyone is aware of and is one of the larger "theories" out there....  Why cant anyone ever come up with the following?????

1. Definition of rules of when to be reverse line movement
2. Source of data in #1
3. Results of a historical data set

Well said.

Great discussion fellas  This is the type of stuff that makes covers great. Vans threads always leave us with better insight/knowledge/thought processes when it comes to our craft

The highest compliment. 

I always learn at Covers.  Thats why I stay around.  I love the discussions / debates.  Fuck the picks.

They put up %s (true or not) because books need action

The more action the more they make

Reverse line movement is when 80% of the money is on one team and the line is moving in the other direction.  For example, if 80% of tonight's money was on Tennessee and the line is now San Fran favored by 3 pushing 3.5.. Line should be moving to where the money is at (Tenn -3.5)

Hope that helps - I have my own theories and thoughts on RLM  

best of luck much respected brother 

I don't believe in any of that line movement crap ..Known so many cappers that stressed out all day over "reverse line movement and or just line movement in general ...These guys were always broke and stressed by mid season 

@vanzack

@pa2918

 COVERS ROCKS 

@vanzack

 Appreciate you Van and remember that Germany parlay soccer lol. Best of luck and on Niners as well at -3...

I’m interested in learning a few things about RLM

so my understanding is this :

RLM is when the majority of wagers placed are on one team but the majority of the money is on the other - and the line moves with the money. 

where I get confused is the legitimacy of the info sources. Which books are releasing these numbers? If it’s real at all, you may be able to extrapolate - but that’s the problem… does anyone have any reason or info that points to these numbers being trustworthy at all?

merry christmas y’all 

A good gambler back in the day once told me "any line movement, is good movement".

It all depends how you look at it. Despite of who, what or why is moving the line, are YOU getting a better # on the side you like?

Ultimately, you gotta be on the right side in the first place, that's the hardest thing. It's rare that a 1, 1.5 or 2 pt move matters. It's just the times that when those small line moves do fuck you, you never forget em.

My 2 cents

@vanzack

 Please see my post #12 in regard to this silly nonsense of reverse line movement.

On to tonight's game. I have no wager on the game. Tennessee is now in desperation mode. This puts them as deadly and an outright win or dead in the water.

People tend to only look at scores, stats etc. Not saying you. Much more goes on in the locker room than we are all aware of. Negativity can infuse itself for a variety of reasons. Or sometimes it only takes one player to slam a helmet against a locker and say enough is enough I am done losing are you. 

GucciCapper enjoyed this solid read.  Very nice to see both Vanzack and CG in a deep discussion. 

Regarding reverse line movement, GucciCapper used to be a big fan of it back in 2004-2006 with Big 10 Home Dogs in college basketball.  Since then, GucciCapper completely abandoned the concept of reverse line movement affecting any decision in GucciCapper’s picks.  

Anyway, GucciCapper also agrees with Vanzack on the 49ers today.  Should be an easy winner for them.  

Merry Christmas to everyone in this thread and especially to Vanzack, CG and DoubleUp4Life!

-Gucci out

Love it!!! On them as well brother! Merry Christmas!

Oh my its ShrimpNuts HCH making an appearance. Hey HCG we heard you need to win a bet to afford your PES Penile Enhancement Surgery unreal