Thursday~~ PITT @ TENN Convo

Question

This is normally a spot where I&#x27;d love to back Tennessee, as a home dog in primetime. I&#x27;ve bet Tennessee twice this season, and both times it was a best bet (max play) for me. First, against Detroit (&#x2B;3.5), and again last week vs. Minny (&#x2B;5.5).&#xD;&#xA;After watching Tennessee get waxed last Sunday, with Hasselback at the helm... I can&#x27;t justify putting money on them in this spot. The Titans couldn&#x27;t even move the ball past mid-field until late in the game when Minny went into a prevent. I&#x27;m a fan of Jake Locker; but with Hasselback behind center against a stout Steelers D, there is no way I am taking Tenn. unless the line is &#x2B;7 or more. Steelers didn&#x27;t look great against the Eagles, but I think they show up strong on Thursday.&#xD;&#xA;One thing that worries me is the reverse line movement I&#x27;m seeing.. PITT from -6.5 to -5.5.. Thoughts and opinions appreciated..&#xD;&#xA;Lean: Steelers -5.5

Magic_Steam · Answer

This is normally a spot where I&#x27;d love to back Tennessee, as a home dog in primetime. I&#x27;ve bet Tennessee twice this season, and both times it was a best bet (max play) for me. First, against Detroit (&#x2B;3.5), and again last week vs. Minny (&#x2B;5.5).&#xD;&#xA;After watching Tennessee get waxed last Sunday, with Hasselback at the helm... I can&#x27;t justify putting money on them in this spot. The Titans couldn&#x27;t even move the ball past mid-field until late in the game when Minny went into a prevent. I&#x27;m a fan of Jake Locker; but with Hasselback behind center against a stout Steelers D, there is no way I am taking Tenn. unless the line is &#x2B;7 or more. Steelers didn&#x27;t look great against the Eagles, but I think they show up strong on Thursday.&#xD;&#xA;One thing that worries me is the reverse line movement I&#x27;m seeing.. PITT from -6.5 to -5.5.. Thoughts and opinions appreciated..&#xD;&#xA;Lean: Steelers -5.5

kn0wn · Answer

feel exactly the same way but i also dont understabd the line movement...i cannot see how titans will keep this even within 10...

jbkizzle · Answer

Logic says the Steelers are significantly better than the Titans.

The line disagrees.

Also, home teams have been great on Thursday night (a short week)

I'm laying off this one. But I'd probably lean Titans +5.5 (and regret that decision on Friday haha)

usikbasterd · Answer

polamalu re injured his calf against the eagles and lamar woodley is also out too...i think minnesotas D has been playing better than steelers D this year..who would&#x27;ve known minnesota would be 4-1 this right now and tied for 1st place in a division with the bears, lions AND packers

nuggins · Answer

yep...as of now, Minny does have the stronger D...and Steelers are not even close to being called 'stout'

Steelers covering on the road is a scary thing... and most times over the L few years they do not

NP

Magic_Steam · Answer

I agree with all you guys.. Home feild advantage is big in this game..The Steelers are a veteran bunch, with a great coaching staff.. They will put so much pressure in the face of Hasselback. and we all have seen how that works out.

kahlon66 · Answer

I was thinking Pittsburgh covers however they have not been so good on the road, and their offense wasnt really good against the Eagles.  I just have a feeling its going to be a close game 3-4 points difference and a Steelers win.

theKCco_op · Answer

Line movement is a concern but I&#x27;m with you on how Tennessee has looked recently.  They narrowly beat an undisciplined bad Detroit team and have gotten blown out every other game losing by a combined score of 140-44.  With this being one of only 2 prime time nationally televised games for them I see why they would step up but I still see them struggling on offense.  I was on them significantly as well last week and didn&#x27;t mind the fact Hass was starting.  Well count me in as being wrong on that one as well.  I will likely just lay off this game.

KnicksFan18 · Answer

tennesee &#x2B; whatever

maki-daddy · Answer

I agree, have had the same spot w/ the Titans but... what I&#x27;ve taken to lately in this position is go with the 1H bet on Titans, or whatever home...  The true better team will "should" cover by end of game.  I may be wrong on this one, but seems the home dog has a better chance at the 1H cover (last week Jags, Titans, Chiefs, with only Chiefs covering game).  On games where home team severely under-matched w/ reverse line moves or static lines although majority of $ on favorite I feel a little better knowing they can play one half well and keep in the game short-term, potential for blowout 2H.  Just my opinion and may be way off on this one... will have to look into long-term trends...

Biscuit · Answer

Good point.   Teams usually don&#x27;t lose that badly unless the coach is over matched, or they&#x27;ve just quit.   I&#x27;m not sure what&#x27;s going on with them.   They have trouble running the ball, and they have the worst time of possession stats in the NFL.....avg less than 25 mins/game (not incl OT)I&#x27;m laying off this one, GLTA

tigerbet09 · Answer

Take tennesse with an outright win this line shows wat the play is...BOL to all.

mrquija27 · Answer

Tenn is god awful this year.  Might be worst team in the NFL.  I watched the Detroit game obviously and they are lucky to win that and only won that because are special teams and defense are so fucking bad its pathetic.  They let us score 14 points in the last 18 seconds or so to take this game to OT.  And we shouldve won but our own offensive lineman ran the wrong play or something like that and we got stuffed on a 4&amp;1 inside the 10 I believe.  Trust me no way you can back Tenn.

mrquija27 · Answer

Dont look at the 44 they put up on us.  14 from returns.  7 on the worst defensive play ever. and 3 in OT.  They earned 20 against the worst defense in the league.  Pitt is a world difference better then detroit on defense and our offense is so off this year its depressing.  I cant stress enough how we beat ourselves in that game.  Tenn has not WON a game yet.

choiOi · Answer

I would look at the total too.....Unders been 5-0 for the game. Unders been 4-0 for 1st half since wk 2 Thursday...5-0 1st half if you count wk1 wed as thurs games.

Unders been solid cause it's a short week, and the offenses don't have much time to prepared.

Hartsvillehyena · Answer

Detroit got burned badly for two special teams touchdowns in that game and Jake Locker threw for 380 yards against their defense. Tennessee intercepted Shaun Hill but got called for an awful roughing the passer penalty to extend Detroit&#x27;s next to last drive...Detroit recovered an onside kick then threw a lob for the game tying TD...pretty sure both teams did enough to beat themselves in that game.So in a nutshell...please don&#x27;t take spit on my hometown Titan&#x27;s only win of the young season.

Hartsvillehyena · Answer

Magic Steam - in reference to the reverse line movement going the direction of the Titans, please keep in mind that the line moved towards Tennessee in last weekend's Minnesota game as well.

I am a Titans season ticket holder, i normally have a very good read on my team...i felt as if we could play with Detroit, but that is the only game where i felt we would compete. The offense cannot move the ball with any consistency and their defense has no leadership and is on pace to break an NFL record for points allowed in a season. On top of that opposing QBs are completing 75% of their passes against us, we cannot cover tight ends(see San Diego game), nor can we stop the run or rush the passer...this team is poorly constructed and there is no way i could recommend betting on them with a short week and a veteran well balanced Pittsburgh team coming to town.

Best of luck my friend

SuperCappa · Answer

The line movement doesn&#39;t concern me at all. I see it as a way to fool the public due to Palomalo&#39;s injury. If I&#39;m not mistaken, the Steelers won two games without him or Harrison and a few others. He knows how to read offenses well but without him the Steelers don&#39;t lose any speed. I think Harrison will be a huge problem for Hasselbeck and Johnson. The return of Mendenhall also gives them a boost. Tennessee is having problems on both sides of the ball and I wouldn&#39;t overthink this one. Its Pitts or no play for me.

Pasteur · Answer

This game has me scratching my head. Will Mendenhall fix the Steelers running game? One decent game isn't enough to answer that imo. Will the return of Britt provide a spark to the Titans offense? It depends how well he practices. I think he's the most talented player they have on offense and it's obvious they've missed him so far. With Britt in the lineup, Washington won't get smothered as much and could open up the offense.

We can all agree the Titans are not a good football team. What we need to focus on is, are the Steelers a good enough team to exploit this and cover the spread? I just don't know yet. They're aces with their QB, WR, and coaching. They have question marks with their defense and running game.

SuperCappa · Answer

As harts mentioned. To be exact the Titans have allowed 181pts in five games. That&#39;s 36.2 pts per game. I read on this earlier. This could get ugly really fast and go OVER the mark as well. Big Ben hasn&#39;t put up big numbers yet and is long due. If I&#39;m not mistaken he didn&#39;t throw any touchdowns against Phi. You have to think Tomlin and company will be working on that right away. I&#39;m just saying.

Topo · Answer

I&#x27;ve had a strong desire to bet against both of these teams this year, which is why I struggle to pick a winner here.  At gunpoint I&#x27;d pick the Titans, but there is no way I&#x27;d put money on them right now.

abragman · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by Magic_Steam]  This is normally a spot where I&#x27;d love to back Tennessee, as a home dog in primetime. I&#x27;ve bet Tennessee twice this season, and both times it was a best bet (max play) for me. First, against Detroit (&#x2B;3.5), and again last week vs. Minny (&#x2B;5.5).&#xD;&#xA;After watching Tennessee get waxed last Sunday, with Hasselback at the helm... I can&#x27;t justify putting money on them in this spot. The Titans couldn&#x27;t even move the ball past mid-field until late in the game when Minny went into a prevent. I&#x27;m a fan of Jake Locker; but with Hasselback behind center against a stout Steelers D, there is no way I am taking Tenn. unless the line is &#x2B;7 or more. Steelers didn&#x27;t look great against the Eagles, but I think they show up strong on Thursday.&#xD;&#xA;One thing that worries me is the reverse line movement I&#x27;m seeing.. PITT from -6.5 to -5.5.. Thoughts and opinions appreciated..&#xD;&#xA;Lean: Steelers -5.5  [/Quote]This is as clean as reverse line movement gets....people pounding the Steelers and the line getting softer. Buy low (the "who could bet on that team" team at home) and sell "high" I suppose. Steelers defense is way overrated, as great as they once were those days are over.

choiOi · Answer

Pitt haven&#39;t won a road game TY. Oak rolled them up for 30pts. This Pitt defense is shameful. Regardless of record..Titans can still win this game.

SuperCappa · Answer

I think Det or Buf is a smarter play @&#x2B;5 or &#x2B;4.5 depending on your line. These two teams can score and are road underdogs to two struggling offensive teams. I think this is a mistake by the oddsmakers or maybe there are just too many stars in Phi that draw the public to place heavy wagers on them. Arizona on the other hand thrives off turnovers but generates nothing impressive on offense. So if turnovers are limited its usually going to be an uphill battle for them. Both Det and Buf are coming off losses and to me these lines are inflated thanks to the public. These are probably the best plays on the board and if I am correct about this I will consider myself on my next level. I haven&#39;t read on these games and I don&#39;t want. This is solely based on how I&#39;ve seen them perform.

Thursday~~ PITT @ TENN Convo

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