NFL Season Record +9.0 units
Ravens -3.5 (3 units)
A wise sage – the Golden Bachelor Gerry says “don’t find the one you want to live with, find the one you can’t live without”. I used similar logic for tonights matchup between the Bengals and the Ravens. Don’t tell me what is going to work tonight, tell me what cant be stopped tonight….
And I just can not come up with any argument to think that the Bengals (29 DVOA against the run) are going to be able to stop the Ravens running game (1 DVOA rushing). This is the key to the game – as simple as it sounds. If the Ravens can run at will – and they should – how can you make an argument to bet the Bengals?
Actually, the Ravens aren’t only first in the NFL in rushing DVOA, they are incredibly well balanced overall and by most adjusted stats metrics are the #1 team in the NFL overall. They just cant finish (also what the Golden Bachelor complains about). I think I saw the Ravens have only been behind in a game 30 total minutes so far this season – which is incredible that they have lost 3 games.
If anything – the Ravens have been underachieving in relation to their record so far.
Burrow is banged up – there are videos floating around with him in a wrist brace – while his calf injury seems to better. Who knows. They are missing Tee Higgins tonight also. But all that said…. I don’t think the Bengals will move the ball at will – they will get theirs – but not like an advantage that the Ravens have on the ground.
So my final rose goes to the team that is here for all of the right reasons – the Ravens – because I cant come up with any way that the Bengals will stop the run tonight and the Ravens should score on a very high percentage of their drives tonight. It will be a tearful limo ride home for Burrow and the Bengals tonight, and they won’t have much closure or understanding of how it all went so bad so quickly.
Ravens 34 Bengals 17
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