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🏈🏈🏈 “To BEt, or not to BEt, that is the question” ...Fubah2's risky bets

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Legend
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Posted: #3651

WILDCARDS  Jan 13:

W +3.0     TEXANS +8.5 -400                               *BB 3u
W +3.0     HOUSTON +7.5 -350                                 3u
 L -27.50    BOTH TEAMS to score 20+? YES -550         5u
W+10.0    LIVE BET hedge: Houston -30.5 -110         10u
W +3.0    LIVE BET mid 1stQ; Dolphins win 1stQ +7.5 -370 *BB 3u
W +3.0    1st LIVE BET,1stQ opening drive: CHIEFS -300 *BB 3u
W +5.0    2nd LIVE BET: CHIEFS -350                           5u
W +5.0    3rd LIVE BET very late 1stQ: CHIEFS -565    *BB 5u

= 7 - 1  +4.5u     (4 - 0 *Best Bets!)

 
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Posted: #3652

WILDCARDS  Jan 14:

W+3.0      LIVE BET early 2Q: Packers win 1h -695 *BB 3u
  L -2.8      K'BOYS -2.5 -280 *BB
  L -3.0      K'BOYS -2.0 -300 *BB
  L -3.2      K'BOYS -1.5 -320 *BB
W+3.0     3rdQ LIVE BET: Dallas +16.5 -250        *BB 3u
 L -2.70     LIVE BET with FGA pending.... 1stQ UNDER 10.5 -135 2u
W+2.0     LIVE BET: BOTH teams to score 15+? Yes -450 2u
W+3.0     Early 2Q Lions lead 14 - 10...LIVE BET: LIONS -250 *BB 3u
W+3.0     LIVE HEDGE BET: RAMS +2.5 -105               *BB 3u
W+5.0     Late 4Q, 24 - 23 LIVE BET: LIONS -185       5u

= 6 - 4  +7.3u        (4 - 3 *Best Bets)

 
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Posted: #3653

WILDCARDS  Jan 15:

L - 2.25      LIVE BET: 1stQ TDs under 1.5 -225
W +1.0     early 4thQ...TEAM to make NEXT SCORE? Steelers -163
W +1.0     LIVE: under 10 left...TEAM to make NEXT SCORE? BUFFY -185

W +1.0     next team to score BUCS -180   (winner on Safety!!)
W +2.0     LIVE BET game early 1stQ...BUCS +8.5 -400  *BB 2u
W +1.0     LIVE BET 2Q, 13 - 3....BUCS -320                    *BB
W +1.0     LIVE BET Mid-3Q: BUCS -280

=  6 - 1   +4.75u              (2 - 0 *Best Bets!)

 
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Posted: #3654

Fubah's  NFL PLAYOFFS  to date:

Jan 13:  7 - 1  +4.50u      (4 - 0 *Best Bets!)
Jan 14:  6 - 4  +7.30u      (4 - 3 *Best Bets!)
Jan 15:  6 - 1  +4.75u      (2 - 0 *Best Bets!)

       = 19 - 6  +16.55u    (10 - 3 *Best Bets!)

 
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Posted: #3655

Interesting DIVISIONAL playoffs stat...

 

 

Dating back to 2002, [and obviously excluding the covid year 2020]

the HEAVY HOME FAVs of  -8 and higher are just  8 - 16 ATS

 

This year, Ravens and 49ers fall into that category.surprised

 

Conversely,

the visiting +8 or better dogs  [this year it's Texans and Packers]

getting an avg ML of +350,  have staged 8 upsets!! moneybag

 

 
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Posted: #3656

HOME teams in the divisionals, with much higher point differentials from reg season, are 15 - 5  su

 
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Posted: #3657

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

HOME teams in the divisionals, with much higher point differentials from reg season, are 15 - 5  su
Yuck....squelch that....I was looking at the wrong column in my stats...

It should read:   40 - 16  su    for the homies owning a very wide margin in point differential (per end reg season)

 
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Posted: #3658

I am leaning RAVENS but likely to wait for an ingame opp because when I saw the stats on heavy home favs of -8+  and they are only 8 -16 ATS  or a paltry 16 - 8 su at an average -450 moneyline...yikes! an_getaway....PASS on the pre-game bet there!!

 
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Posted: #3659

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Fubah's  NFL PLAYOFFS  to date:

Jan 13:  7 - 1  +4.50u      (4 - 0 *Best Bets!)
Jan 14:  6 - 4  +7.30u      (4 - 3 *Best Bets!)
Jan 15:  6 - 1  +4.75u      (2 - 0 *Best Bets!)

       = 19 - 6  +16.55u    (10 - 3 *Best Bets!)

Keep it going! an_cheers

 
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Posted: #3660

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Interesting DIVISIONAL playoffs stat...

 

an_light Dating back to 2002, [and obviously excluding the covid year 2020]

the HEAVY HOME FAVs of  -8 and higher are just  8 - 16 ATS

 

This year, Ravens  and 49ers  fall into that category.surprised

Despite that, the 49ers line has a slight move up from -9.5 to -10 in many books

 

Heavy underdogs (+8 pts and up) are 16 - 8 to cover ATS

 
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Posted: #3661

Star  TE for RAVENS, Mark Andrews, was hoping to play this weekend but will not suit up.

 
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Posted: #3662

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Interesting DIVISIONAL playoffs stat...   Dating back to 2002, [and obviously excluding the covid year 2020] the HEAVY HOME FAVs of  -8 and higher are just  8 - 16 ATS   This year, Ravens  and 49ers  fall into that category. Despite that, the 49ers line has a slight move up from -9.5 to -10 in many books

Now the fav line on RAVENS has been edged over to -10 as well!

Will be interesting to see how this plays out with those two heavy home favs.  Ravens and Niners. Statistically the odds appear to be that at least one of them will fail to cover even -9.5,  let alone -10.

 

 
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Posted: #3663

Yes, one will definitely cover. Take Ravens now and slam Niners if Ravens don't cover. Simple enough game plan hahaha clover

A broken Rolex is right twice A-day hahaha
 
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Posted: #3664

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Interesting DIVISIONAL playoffs stat...   Dating back to 2002, [and obviously excluding the covid year 2020] the HEAVY HOME FAVs of  -8 and higher are just  8 - 16 ATS   This year, Ravens  and 49ers  fall into that category. Despite that, the 49ers line has a slight move up from -9.5 to -10 in many books Now the fav line on RAVENS has been edged over to -10 as well! Will be interesting to see how this plays out with those two heavy home favs.  Ravens and Niners. Statistically the odds appear to be that at least one of them will fail to cover even -9.5,  let alone -10.

As long as Lamar Jackson does not turn over the ball more than once, the Ravens should prevail SU.

But a defensive or SpT score against coupled with another lucky break to the Texans and the Ravens would not only fail to cover but could lose SU. an_speechless Ravens are the stronger team definitely at this venue.  But it didn't work out so well for Dallas and they were even stronger at home than Ravens are here!

 
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Posted: #3665

Quote Originally Posted by 2goodhahaha:

Yes, one will definitely cover. Take Ravens now and slam Niners if Ravens don't cover. Simple enough game plan hahaha

The odds of a SU moneyline win for the heavy underdog in the same span is 8 winners vs. just 16 losers, with an average moneyline on the dog of around +350....seems like a good deal too!

 
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Posted: #3666

@fubah2

Good luck in this round! clover 

 
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Posted: #3667

 

wifi test  

 

greetings from vegas !an_2drinks

the 6 of us are all at the MGM for the first game  if anyone in the area wanna stop by

were easy to spot   look for the old guy who brought his whole damn desktop computer an_wink fubah !!

 

just got my ticket on ravens

 

 

"I'm the MOST HONEST HUMAN BEING that God has EVER created!!" - Donald Trump
 
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Posted: #3668

@KellyM_1964

Have fun in Vegas, and win some money, baby! an_cheers 

 

 
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Posted: #3669

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by 2goodhahaha: Yes, one will definitely cover. Take Ravens now and slam Niners if Ravens don't cover. Simple enough game plan hahaha The odds of a SU moneyline win for the heavy underdog in the same span is 8 winners vs. just 16 losers, with an average moneyline on the dog of around +350....seems like a good deal too!
Game #1 of Divisionals...1stQ, Ravens lead 3 - 0: Ravens ball 2nd poss ...LIVE BET: TEXANS 1stQ +3.5 -334 *BB 3u

 
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Posted: #3670

Quote Originally Posted by Europa:

@fubah2 Good luck in this round!

@Europa

Thanks!  BoL with your bets today!!! an_cheers

 
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Posted: #3671

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by 2goodhahaha: Yes, one will definitely cover. Take Ravens now and slam Niners if Ravens don't cover. Simple enough game plan hahaha The odds of a SU moneyline win for the heavy underdog in the same span is 8 winners vs. just 16 losers, with an average moneyline on the dog of around +350....seems like a good deal too!Game #1 of Divisionals...1stQ, Ravens lead 3 - 0: Ravens ball 2nd poss ...LIVE BET: TEXANS 1stQ +3.5 -334 *BB 3u
Score now tied to end 1stQ....but Texans had opening possession so this possession/stats by Ravens - now over their own 40 after QB dash - will even up the possessions at 3 apiece in the stats.......and at least in the early going here the game looks dead even on the field.... no turnovers yet....

 
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Posted: #3672

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by 2goodhahaha: Yes, one will definitely cover. Take Ravens now and slam Niners if Ravens don't cover. Simple enough game plan hahaha The odds of a SU moneyline win for the heavy underdog in the same span is 8 winners vs. just 16 losers, with an average moneyline on the dog of around +350....seems like a good deal too!Game #1 of Divisionals...1stQ, Ravens lead 3 - 0: Ravens ball 2nd poss ...LIVE BET: TEXANS 1stQ +3.5 -334 *BB 3u Score now tied to end 1stQ....but Texans had opening possession so this possession/stats by Ravens - now over their own 40 after QB dash - will even up the possessions at 3 apiece in the stats.......and at least in the early going here the game looks dead even on the field.... no turnovers yet....
After the TD, RAVENS are -1000 moneyline......but a turnover could tie the game!! No way does it look like Ravens are 10 to 1 better than Texans!

 
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Posted: #3673

@fubah2 

 good luck!

 
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Posted: #3674

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Interesting DIVISIONAL playoffs stat...   Dating back to 2002, [and obviously excluding the covid year 2020] the HEAVY HOME FAVs of  -8 and higher are just  8 - 16 ATS   This year, Ravens  and 49ers  fall into that category. Despite that, the 49ers line has a slight move up from -9.5 to -10 in many books Now the fav line on RAVENS has been edged over to -10 as well! Will be interesting to see how this plays out with those two heavy home favs.  Ravens and Niners. Statistically the odds appear to be that at least one of them will fail to cover even -9.5,  let alone -10. As long as Lamar Jackson does not turn over the ball more than once, the Ravens should prevail SU. But a defensive or SpT score against coupled with another lucky break to the Texans and the Ravens would not only fail to cover but could lose SU. an_speechless  Ravens are the stronger team definitely at this venue.  But it didn't work out so well for Dallas and they were even stronger at home than Ravens are here!
Added Live bet, score tied at 10 apieace:  TEXANS +14.5 -275 alt-line  *BB 4u

 
 
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Posted: #3675

Quote Originally Posted by Europa:

@KellyM_1964 Have fun in Vegas, and win some money, baby!

@Europa

 peace_5 thanks europa .it would b more fun if the ravens were leading by 20 right now . this one is looking really tough . 4 of our group  bought tickets on ravens spread , one took texans and one passed

"I'm the MOST HONEST HUMAN BEING that God has EVER created!!" - Donald Trump
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