🏈🏈🏈 “To BEt, or not to BEt, that is the question” ...Fubah2's risky bets

@fubah2

Good luck to your bets today, Fubah!  

* My 2024 weekly results:

Week 01:   1 - 0
Week 02:   3 - 1     (Loser: -115)
Week 03:   5 - 2    (Losers: -110, *-175)
Week 04:   6 - 2    (Losers: -250, -180)
Week 05:   5 - 2    (Losers: *-230, -175)
Week 06:   6 - 0
Week 07:   8 - 4    (Losers: *-108, -115, -153, *-210)
Week 08:   5 - 2    (Losers: -120, -125) 
Week 09:   9 - 8  (Losers: -105; +1.5 -120; +17.5 -250; +3 -142; +3.5 -150; -150; +3.5 -180; -105)
Week 10:   6 - 4    (Losers: *-4 -140; +120; +8 -128; *-127)
Week 11:  16 - 6     (Losers: -150; -6.5 -145; -287; -4 -152; -150; -2.5 -150)
Week 12:   8 - 1    (Loser: *-7.5 -125)
Week 13:   7 - 4    (Losers: *-118; -150; -130; +4.5 -145)
Week 14:   5 - 1    (Loser: +150 hedge bet)
Week 15:   5 - 1      (Loser: -125 hedge bet)
Week 16:   3 - 1    (Loser: +8.5 -152)
Week 17:   6 - 3    (Losers: *+3 -140; +0.5 -138; *+12.5 -175 hedge bet)
Week 18:   6 - 3    (Losers: ATL -3 -290; GB -3 -345; *under 43.5 -334)

Playoffs:    4 - 1     (Loser:  *Minn -135)

YTD:  114 - 46    71%    [36 - 12 *Best Bets 75%]

                     ( -7374 juice total from 46 posted losers)

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[Quote: Originally Posted by fubah2]

When I look at upcoming games where one team holds MASSIVE edges over their significantly weaker opponent, my handicapping sheets "circle" those for su wins!  I have subsequently used those indicators to make MOST of my su bet selections!

 Last 8 weeks; includes WildCards:

"circled"   = 58 - 14  su   and   43 - 26 - 2 ATS!

Divisional round has 3 teams "circled" with MASSIVE edges to win SU:  KC, Detroit  and Philly

Good Afternoon Mr Fubah any leans or straight up are you looking at ?

@vc1028

  Hey VC!  Howz it with you these days?

Yes, as a matter of fact I do...

GAME 1:  fortunate TEXANS @WORLD CHAMPIONS

My analysis/handicapping sheets have this game "circled" as a highly probable win SU for the CHIEFS.  My personal handicapping stats reveal a 58 - 14  W/L  when a team is thusly "circled" -- approx 80% likely while 20% unlikely......or a 4 to 1 ratio.

So if the CHIEFS were a moneyline fave of UNDER say around -375 or less, I see this as having value.

But they are not!  Most of the ML odds we see are around -525 give or take

Way too high, even though, aside from my 8 week stats, I personally feel they have an 85% chance to win su (or roughly 5.7 to 1) due largely to being very healthy, at home, TEXANS missing star WR, and TEXANS coming off a fortuitous HOME win may have them thinking they are on par with the top tier CHIEFS.......

Chiefs play (but win) a lot of very close HOME games though!!!  So a TEXANS cover also has reasonably good odds to succeed!

So, Chiefs are a lean and I am waiting for LIVE play...

I am hoping for a reduced ML to grab the CHIEFS during live play - probably from TEXANS being up early (or if a TEXANS injury; or if it looks like KC is going to freight train them)......*AND* I like the idea of seeing if I can fanangle a middle shot (probably stretching the spread on Texans (in game) using an alt-line to provide a wider sweet spot.

BoL with your bets!!

@fubah2

 Brother, so the plan is to LIVE bet Chiefs at lower ML value, not spread?

@Tailer187

  Hey man!!    Hope you're doing well....

YES, that's my plan.  KC is the much better team, and barring flukes, multiple bad breaks, BAD officiating at the WRONG time, and/or a KEY INJURY (which could happen!!!) - iow, all things being equal - KC wins this by 4 to 12 pts in my analysis....

NOT THE SPREAD, because they win often just by 2 to 5 pts..... SU is the way to go but only if it appears they are playing well....

Thank you Fubah your knowledge and insight has made me a better handicapper and more patience continued success great job especially sharing ??

@fubah2

 I'm good my brother! Alright, hopefully you can post it when you think it's best time to place a bet on KC during live. Thanks man as always!

Thanks, EUROPA!  

BoL on your bets today and from what I see we can both win! 

@Tailer187

 Sure will do!

But the game unfortunately starts off with a KC possession and then 3 pts, which RAISES the moneyline a bit.....so we need Houston to take the lead to get a good  ML on KC -- must be before late first half though....

  KC 

Big play for TEXANS and the ML on KC drops to -350 ....that's takeable *BUT* I'm hoping for lower....

@fubah2

 Anything around 200ML we take it?

Only 8 or so mins into 1Q...TEXANS driving deep...LIVE BET: CHIEFS -320

Damn they didn't touchdown lol

Damn.....but I would still like the play even up to -375 as I wrote above....

Anything around -370 we take it!!!

I got -320 earlier

4 mins left in 1Q and CHIEFS take a small lead 6 - 3 ...

Halftime shtats  show a small but definite edge to Houston.

They are getting pressure on Mahomes while the CHIEFS are only mediocre at getting pressure on Stroud and the CHIEFS **MUST** improve in the pass rush or Texans are surely going to tie it and then this game becomes a coin-flipper and I may be looking to bail with a hedger... That late drive for FG makes me nervous now...

TEXANS get the ball first in 3Q....

Still considering maybe taking HOUSTON an an underdog ALT-point spread for a middle shot...

It's now a 13 - 12 coin flipper....but edge to Houston.

Houston has the offense and defense.

Chiefs only have an offense... NO defense!   

Late 3Q and Houston has a significant edge...KC ball deep own end...LIVE hedge BET: TEXANS +215

Apparently this year Andy Reid was 11 - 0 when leading at HT....but those streaks don't last forever.....could fall apart here UNLESS  Chiefs manage to get a significant break (like a turnover, or big pass interference call, or some such) otherwise this could be an upset.....Their D simply is NOT pressuring Stroud!!!

Game #2: 

Very LUCKY COMMANDOS  @the BEST team in the NFL

Regardless result of first game, will approach this game the same way as game 1.

ML is too high to take Detroit ....yet....but hopefully it drops to under -375 LIVE