Posted:
#6301
@fubah2
Good luck to your bets today, Fubah! 
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🏈🏈🏈 “To BEt, or not to BEt, that is the question” ...Fubah2's risky bets
Posted:
#6302
* My 2024 weekly results:
Week 01: 1 - 0
Week 02: 3 - 1 (Loser: -115)
Week 03: 5 - 2 (Losers: -110, *-175)
Week 04: 6 - 2 (Losers: -250, -180)
Week 05: 5 - 2 (Losers: *-230, -175)
Week 06: 6 - 0
Week 07: 8 - 4 (Losers: *-108, -115, -153, *-210)
Week 08: 5 - 2 (Losers: -120, -125)
Week 09: 9 - 8 (Losers: -105; +1.5 -120; +17.5 -250; +3 -142; +3.5 -150; -150; +3.5 -180; -105)
Week 10: 6 - 4 (Losers: *-4 -140; +120; +8 -128; *-127)
Week 11: 16 - 6 (Losers: -150; -6.5 -145; -287; -4 -152; -150; -2.5 -150)
Week 12: 8 - 1 (Loser: *-7.5 -125)
Week 13: 7 - 4 (Losers: *-118; -150; -130; +4.5 -145)
Week 14: 5 - 1 (Loser: +150 hedge bet)
Week 15: 5 - 1 (Loser: -125 hedge bet)
Week 16: 3 - 1 (Loser: +8.5 -152)
Week 17: 6 - 3 (Losers: *+3 -140; +0.5 -138; *+12.5 -175 hedge bet)
Week 18: 6 - 3 (Losers: ATL -3 -290; GB -3 -345; *under 43.5 -334)
Playoffs: 4 - 1 (Loser: *Minn -135)
YTD: 114 - 46 71% [36 - 12 *Best Bets 75%]
( -7374 juice total from 46 posted losers)
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Posted:
#6303
[Quote: Originally Posted by fubah2]
When I look at upcoming games where one team holds MASSIVE edges over their significantly weaker opponent, my handicapping sheets "circle" those for su wins! I have subsequently used those indicators to make MOST of my su bet selections!
Last 8 weeks; includes WildCards:
"circled" = 58 - 14 su 
and 43 - 26 - 2 ATS!
Divisional round has 3 teams "circled" with MASSIVE edges to win SU: KC, Detroit and Philly
2
Posted:
#6305
Quote Originally Posted by vc1028:
Good Afternoon Mr Fubah any leans or straight up are you looking at ?
Good Afternoon Mr Fubah any leans or straight up are you looking at ?
@vc1028
Hey VC! Howz it with you these days? 
Yes, as a matter of fact I do...
GAME 1: fortunate TEXANS @WORLD CHAMPIONS
My analysis/handicapping sheets have this game "circled" as a highly probable win SU for the CHIEFS. My personal handicapping stats reveal a 58 - 14 W/L when a team is thusly "circled" -- approx 80% likely while 20% unlikely......or a 4 to 1 ratio.
So if the CHIEFS were a moneyline fave of UNDER say around -375 or less, I see this as having value.
But they are not! Most of the ML odds we see are around -525 give or take
Way too high, even though, aside from my 8 week stats, I personally feel they have an 85% chance to win su (or roughly 5.7 to 1) due largely to being very healthy, at home, TEXANS missing star WR, and TEXANS coming off a fortuitous HOME win may have them thinking they are on par with the top tier CHIEFS.......
Chiefs play (but win) a lot of very close HOME games though!!! So a TEXANS cover also has reasonably good odds to succeed!
So, Chiefs are a lean and I am waiting for LIVE play...
I am hoping for a reduced ML to grab the CHIEFS during live play - probably from TEXANS being up early (or if a TEXANS injury; or if it looks like KC is going to freight train them)......*AND* I like the idea of seeing if I can fanangle a middle shot (probably stretching the spread on Texans (in game) using an alt-line to provide a wider sweet spot.
BoL with your bets!!
1
Posted:
#6307
Quote Originally Posted by Tailer187:
@fubah2 Brother, so the plan is to LIVE bet Chiefs at lower ML value, not spread?
@fubah2 Brother, so the plan is to LIVE bet Chiefs at lower ML value, not spread?
@Tailer187
Hey man!! 
Hope you're doing well....
YES, that's my plan. KC is the much better team, and barring flukes, multiple bad breaks, BAD officiating at the WRONG time, and/or a KEY INJURY (which could happen!!!) - iow, all things being equal - KC wins this by 4 to 12 pts in my analysis....
NOT THE SPREAD, because they win often just by 2 to 5 pts..... SU is the way to go but only if it appears they are playing well....
1
Posted:
#6311
Quote Originally Posted by Tailer187:
@fubah2 I'm good my brother! Alright, hopefully you can post it when you think it's best time to place a bet on KC during live. Thanks man as always!
@fubah2 I'm good my brother! Alright, hopefully you can post it when you think it's best time to place a bet on KC during live. Thanks man as always!
@Tailer187
Sure will do!
But the game unfortunately starts off with a KC possession and then 3 pts, which RAISES the moneyline a bit.....so we need Houston to take the lead to get a good ML on KC -- must be before late first half though....
0
Posted:
#6313
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by Tailer187: @fubah2 I'm good my brother! Alright, hopefully you can post it when you think it's best time to place a bet on KC during live. Thanks man as always! @Tailer187 Sure will do! But the game unfortunately starts off with a KC possession and then 3 pts, which RAISES the moneyline a bit.....so we need Houston to take the lead to get a good ML on KC -- must be before late first half though....
Quote Originally Posted by Tailer187: @fubah2 I'm good my brother! Alright, hopefully you can post it when you think it's best time to place a bet on KC during live. Thanks man as always! @Tailer187 Sure will do! But the game unfortunately starts off with a KC possession and then 3 pts, which RAISES the moneyline a bit.....so we need Houston to take the lead to get a good ML on KC -- must be before late first half though....
Big play for TEXANS and the ML on KC drops to -350 ....that's takeable *BUT* I'm hoping for lower....
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Posted:
#6315
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by Tailer187: @fubah2 I'm good my brother! Alright, hopefully you can post it when you think it's best time to place a bet on KC during live. Thanks man as always! @Tailer187 Sure will do! But the game unfortunately starts off with a KC possession and then 3 pts, which RAISES the moneyline a bit.....so we need Houston to take the lead to get a good ML on KC -- must be before late first half though.... Big play for TEXANS and the ML on KC drops to -350 ....that's takeable *BUT* I'm hoping for lower....
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by Tailer187: @fubah2 I'm good my brother! Alright, hopefully you can post it when you think it's best time to place a bet on KC during live. Thanks man as always! @Tailer187 Sure will do! But the game unfortunately starts off with a KC possession and then 3 pts, which RAISES the moneyline a bit.....so we need Houston to take the lead to get a good ML on KC -- must be before late first half though.... Big play for TEXANS and the ML on KC drops to -350 ....that's takeable *BUT* I'm hoping for lower....
Only 8 or so mins into 1Q...TEXANS driving deep...LIVE BET: CHIEFS -320
0
Posted:
#6319
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by Tailer187: @fubah2 I'm good my brother! Alright, hopefully you can post it when you think it's best time to place a bet on KC during live. Thanks man as always! @Tailer187 Sure will do! But the game unfortunately starts off with a KC possession and then 3 pts, which RAISES the moneyline a bit.....so we need Houston to take the lead to get a good ML on KC -- must be before late first half though.... Big play for TEXANS and the ML on KC drops to -350 ....that's takeable *BUT* I'm hoping for lower.... Only 8 or so mins into 1Q...TEXANS driving deep...LIVE BET: CHIEFS -320
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by Tailer187: @fubah2 I'm good my brother! Alright, hopefully you can post it when you think it's best time to place a bet on KC during live. Thanks man as always! @Tailer187 Sure will do! But the game unfortunately starts off with a KC possession and then 3 pts, which RAISES the moneyline a bit.....so we need Houston to take the lead to get a good ML on KC -- must be before late first half though.... Big play for TEXANS and the ML on KC drops to -350 ....that's takeable *BUT* I'm hoping for lower.... Only 8 or so mins into 1Q...TEXANS driving deep...LIVE BET: CHIEFS -320
4 mins left in 1Q and CHIEFS take a small lead 6 - 3 ...
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Posted:
#6320
Halftime shtats show a small but definite edge to Houston. 
They are getting pressure on Mahomes while the CHIEFS are only mediocre at getting pressure on Stroud and the CHIEFS **MUST** improve in the pass rush or Texans are surely going to tie it and then this game becomes a coin-flipper and I may be looking to bail with a hedger...
That late drive for FG makes me nervous now...
TEXANS get the ball first in 3Q....
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Posted:
#6321
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Halftime shtats show a small but definite edge to Houston. They are getting pressure on Mahomes while the CHIEFS are only mediocre at getting pressure on Stroud and the CHIEFS **MUST** improve in the pass rush or Texans are surely going to tie it and then this game becomes a coin-flipper and I may be looking to bail with a hedger... That late drive for FG makes me nervous now... TEXANS get the ball first in 3Q....
Halftime shtats show a small but definite edge to Houston. They are getting pressure on Mahomes while the CHIEFS are only mediocre at getting pressure on Stroud and the CHIEFS **MUST** improve in the pass rush or Texans are surely going to tie it and then this game becomes a coin-flipper and I may be looking to bail with a hedger... That late drive for FG makes me nervous now... TEXANS get the ball first in 3Q....
Still considering maybe taking HOUSTON an an underdog ALT-point spread for a middle shot...
0
Posted:
#6322
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Halftime shtats show a small but definite edge to Houston.
Halftime shtats show a small but definite edge to Houston.
They are getting pressure on Mahomes while the CHIEFS are only mediocre at getting pressure on Stroud and the CHIEFS **MUST** improve in the pass rush or Texans are surely going to tie it and then this game becomes a coin-flipper and I may be looking to bail with a hedger... That late drive for FG makes me nervous now...
.
It's now a 13 - 12 coin flipper....but edge to Houston.
Houston has the offense and defense.
Chiefs only have an offense... NO defense!
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Posted:
#6323
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
the CHIEFS **MUST** improve in the pass rush or Texans are surely going to tie it and then this game becomes a coin-flipper and I may be looking to bail with a hedger...
the CHIEFS **MUST** improve in the pass rush or Texans are surely going to tie it and then this game becomes a coin-flipper and I may be looking to bail with a hedger...
Late 3Q and Houston has a significant edge...KC ball deep own end...LIVE hedge BET: TEXANS +215
0
Posted:
#6324
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: the CHIEFS **MUST** improve in the pass rush or Texans are surely going to tie it and then this game becomes a coin-flipper and I may be looking to bail with a hedger... Late 3Q and Houston has a significant edge...KC ball deep own end...LIVE hedge BET: TEXANS +215
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: the CHIEFS **MUST** improve in the pass rush or Texans are surely going to tie it and then this game becomes a coin-flipper and I may be looking to bail with a hedger... Late 3Q and Houston has a significant edge...KC ball deep own end...LIVE hedge BET: TEXANS +215
Apparently this year Andy Reid was 11 - 0 when leading at HT....but those streaks don't last forever.....could fall apart here UNLESS Chiefs manage to get a significant break (like a turnover, or big pass interference call, or some such) otherwise this could be an upset.....Their D simply is NOT pressuring Stroud!!!
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