To Hedge or not Hedge a wins total on this Sunday?????

Question

At the beginning of the year I bet one wins total, I bet the Texans over 7.5 wins at -145 at The MGM.  I put 6 Dimes on it, and the exact payout is 10,137.95&#xD;&#xA;The Texans are sitting at 7 wins, with Chicago at home this week, so it is basically a 10 Dime game this week for me.&#xD;&#xA;I am sure I could hedge like 2500 or so, but it is always an empty feeling when you hedge and the bet wins anyway!!!!!!  I am leaning not to hedge, plus I think Houston will roll this Sunday anyway!!!!  And I don&#x27;t care if Chicago needs this game and Houston doesn&#x27;t, these are pros, and Houston is playing for a .500 season!!!&#xD;&#xA;Suggestions???

FrontRowCenter · Answer

At the beginning of the year I bet one wins total, I bet the Texans over 7.5 wins at -145 at The MGM.  I put 6 Dimes on it, and the exact payout is 10,137.95&#xD;&#xA;The Texans are sitting at 7 wins, with Chicago at home this week, so it is basically a 10 Dime game this week for me.&#xD;&#xA;I am sure I could hedge like 2500 or so, but it is always an empty feeling when you hedge and the bet wins anyway!!!!!!  I am leaning not to hedge, plus I think Houston will roll this Sunday anyway!!!!  And I don&#x27;t care if Chicago needs this game and Houston doesn&#x27;t, these are pros, and Houston is playing for a .500 season!!!&#xD;&#xA;Suggestions???

binka34 · Answer

i&#x27;d hedge it&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;chicago has to win

andarmac99 · Answer

Don&#x27;t be ridiculous. Let it ride, the Texans win this week.

Schmohawk · Answer

I am in the same boat.

I am wondering if I should hedge the bet as well. Hou should have beaten Oak and now that Chicago REALLY needs this game I am a bit worried.

I need to see the line though before I decide.

rpwd · Answer

Here is a suggestion.&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;Open a new sportsbook account and take advantage of any new account bonus.  Also, some have a loss rebate bonus on your first bet.  Look around and take the best offer.&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;Then take chicago and the points.  No line is posted but they are on the road and may be &#x2B; 2.5 dog, or take the ML if the are favored.&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;If they get points you have a chance to win both bets.&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;If you lose the Chicago bet, you can still get the loss rebate.&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;This way you can hedge while having a chance to come out way ahead.

rpwd · Answer

Check out beted.  I just saw they have some 50% deposit bonus and a bonus on the first win.  So you can hedge your bet alot easier.

PSU12 · Answer

Agree with the last poster....perfect advice...take Chicago and the points if they are a dog and Chicago ML if they are the fave...

Schmohawk · Answer

So do you guys think I should put the bet in on Chicago as soon as the lines come out?  Or wait till gametime?That is if I decide to hedge, which I am leaning towards doing.

Schmohawk · Answer

I just saw the first line get posted and it is Houston -1. WHAT SHOULD I DO?

FrontRowCenter · Answer

I see the line Houston at -1, -2, and -3.

FrontRowCenter · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by andarmac99] Don&#x27;t be ridiculous. Let it ride, the Texans win this week.&#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA;[/Quote]&#xD;&#xA;I like the way U are thinking!!!

bunny24 · Answer

You might not realize it but the Bear&#x27;s pathetic win last nite means the Texans are not only playing for a .500 season, they now get to feast on these babies of the midway....did you see them play last nite?....I don&#x27;t want to jinx you but I believe the Texans are going to be jacked sky high for this one...The bears have a horrible secondary that plays right into Texans strength...I don&#x27;t know what happenned in Oakland but I didn&#x27;t like them as huge road favorites...didn&#x27;t feel right....MAN I WISH I HAD YOUR TICKET...Texans by 21

rpwd · Answer

I can tell you don&#x27;t really want to hedge.  You want to let it ride with your oginal bet.  You made the bet because you thought it would come in and its hard to bet the other way.&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;I am taking the emotion out as an outsider.  If someone handed me your ticket from vegas out of the blue.  I would deposit the max amout into two sportsbooks to get whatever holiday bonus the are running.  Say $2500 in each with a $500 bonus to a total of $3000.  I would lay $2500 on Chicago, buying points to get &#x2B;3 or &#x2B;3.5 right away.  I save the $500 bonus in each account in case the line moves to a natural 3.0 or 3.5 and I bet the rest.  Or hold it for a half time bet (especially if Houston is wait out in front)to bet the Chic Money Line to ease the pain.&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;So a total deposit of 5K (or just under your total orginal vegas bet) risking 6K with the bonus.&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;From my point of view that would be a perfect business decision.  I am guarenteed about 10K at the end of the day, and could have 15K or  20K&#x2B; if the game ends 13-10 Houston.&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;Its a total Win-Win.  Plus like I said, some books have loss rebates and win rebates on your first wager.  Why this is so big is because your first wager can be very large as its a hedge to a 6K bet.  So at the end of the day you could have 25K total.  &#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;If you don&#x27;t hedge and Houston loses, you don&#x27;t have crap.  If you let it ride you might as well played a 5K hand of blackjack in Vegas instead of making the bet.

Shocker23 · Answer

Let it ride!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Steortex · Answer

LET IF ROLL remember 6000 is isnt like some parlay where you can hedge and get your money back and still make a profit...

bunny24 · Answer

Just a thought....Why don&#x27;t you keep pounding the Texans...I almost fell off my chair when I saw line open at -1.....There are alot of people out there that actually think the Bears are a real football team...Boise ST. could beat them.....Kyle Orton is not an NFL quarterback....the only scare the Bears can put in you is special teams...it&#x27;s the only way they can put up points....sorry buddy but hedging is not the play here...The NFL is all about finding the right spots and this is supersweet....Thank you Packers, I&#x27;m padding my wallet this Sunday....don&#x27;t listen to the so-called professionals...some time you got to keep slamming......TEXANS

rpwd · Answer

I am not slamming the texans.  Just using logic.&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;I am not worried.  Its not my money.  Just thinking how I would feel Monday if I had zero and could have had 10K.  To have that bet all year and have the Texans lay an egg in the last two weeks and and get -0-.&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;He actually has time to take advantage of bonuses and can lay out a nice win-win hedge at the sportsbooks.  Shop around for a great deal.&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;Bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.  &#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;But if you want to throw it all out there, play the adjusted line texans -7 for &#x2B;170 for another stack of cash.  Its only money...

Barnstorm · Answer

The line is up to Houston -3 in some places. If you can get those bonuses and take Chicago up to &#x2B;3.5 you may really have something there.What other teams are right at their total wins marks?

Iw1nBets · Answer

chicago winning that green bay games cost me my under bears 8.5 bet

Iw1nBets · Answer

id considering the bears had breakout years and way overchieements for Ortman plus the way theyve won games a bad beat

dl36 · Answer

Lets look at the issue logically in terms of possibilities... I fsomeone can break it down further please tell me if I am missing something...

So HOU +7.5 wins -145 $6000 to win $4137.95

1. Let it ride... which if you like HOU, you got them money line... The risk however is that if they lose, you lose $6000, which is your worst scenario in terms of loses.. and thinking about avoiding this is why you started this thread right?

2. Hedge CHI moneyline
The might be some value in getting moneyline dog as the money you put down will cover losses if
The problem with this is that every cent towards CHI takes a way money on the original HOU +7.5 wins bet but at least you avoid the worse case scenario...

3. Play CHI ATS
If CHI is a dog, you might have a unique middle situation... If HOU wins by 1 or 2 you middle... Just think if the line goes to +3.5! You also avoid the worst case scenario... The disadvantage of this strategy is that you will have to pay -110 odds likely, which is less value then money line in the actual hedging process...

4. I want you to consider a final alternate strategy...
Let it ride, but watch the game and look to put some money down on an opportune half time line...

If HOU is up at half time, you might be able to a large middle range...

Think about this...

If HOU is up at the half 24-10 and the half time line is CHI -4, then put some money on CHI...

Your middle numbers are now HOU wins by 1-9 points...

My thinking behind this is that CHI will not give up with their playoff hopes in question... So say they make a come back in the game with some turn overs or kick returns but end up losing 34-30...

HOU wins so you win your +7.5 wins and CHI covers so you win money on that...

5. My overall assessment of your situation is that with the -145 odds, it might serve you better to perserve your $6000 then to try to focus collecting winnings at that pay out rate...

But consider this, if you max out your hedge possibility, putting $4137.95 on CHI money line to win 5171.25...

You now are at a point that if HOU wins you end up with $6000 with no winnings and if HOU loses you end up with about $4966, losing 1k in the process...

But like you, my gambling juices don't going with this prospect, so I would recommend trying to middle on a nice half time line and put down like $4000 on CHI at the half and cheer for the middle...

Just make sure you get a window larger then 6 points as hitting right on 7 would end up with a push and you still walk away with $10k...

So from an entertainment and agressive gambling standpoint I would let it ride and then try to go for a middle at the half and walk away with a little more then 14k...

If played correctly, this could be the best gambling experience of your life...

I would reccomend if you put the money down at the half to then just sit and watch the game and get wasted in the process

... I say this because you will either not care that you ended up losing some, but you might just be celebrating an exciting gambling experience as it happens...

ThrllKll · Answer

Good post, dl36.What&#x27;s interesting here is that the ML on Houston this weekend should be right around -145, the exact odds of FRC&#x27;s original ticket.  This removes the discussion of whether or not there is value in hedging this bet.  This is really just a buyback situation... approach it like you just bet 6K on Houston&#x27;s ML yesterday and then decide how confident you are with that wager.  Unless you successfully middle, you are basically stuck paying the vig because your future has no odds advantage over the actual game line.If you decide to wait until halftime, you&#x27;ll have to be prepared to let the bet ride if Houston is trailing.

FrontRowCenter · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by Shocker23] &#xD;&#xA; Let it ride!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!&#xD;&#xA;[/Quote]&#xD;&#xA;I love that avatar!!!

FrontRowCenter · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by dl36] Lets look at the issue logically in terms of possibilities... I fsomeone can break it down further please tell me if I am missing something...So HOU &#x2B;7.5 wins -145 $6000 to win $4137.951.  Let it ride... which if you like HOU, you got them money line... The risk however is that if they lose, you lose $6000, which is your worst scenario in terms of loses.. and thinking about avoiding this is why you started this thread right?2.   Hedge CHI moneylineThe might be some value in getting moneyline dog as the money you put down will cover losses if The problem with this is that every cent towards CHI takes a way money on the original HOU &#x2B;7.5 wins bet but at least you avoid the worse case scenario...3. Play CHI ATSIf CHI is a dog, you might have a unique middle situation...   If HOU wins by 1 or 2 you middle...  Just think if the line goes to &#x2B;3.5!  You also avoid the worst case scenario...  The disadvantage of this strategy is that you will have to pay -110 odds likely, which is less value then money line in the actual hedging process...4.  I want you to consider a final alternate strategy...Let it ride, but watch the game and look to put some money down on an opportune half time line...If HOU is up at half time, you might be able to a large middle range...Think about this...If HOU is up at the half 24-10 and the half time line is CHI -4, then put some money on CHI...  Your middle numbers are now HOU wins by 1-9 points...My thinking behind this is that CHI will not give up with their playoff hopes in question... So say they make a come back in the game with some turn overs or kick returns but end up losing 34-30...HOU wins so you win your &#x2B;7.5 wins and CHI covers so you win money on that...5.  My overall assessment of your situation is that with the -145 odds, it might serve you better to perserve your $6000 then to try to focus collecting winnings at that pay out rate...But consider this, if you max out your hedge possibility, putting $4137.95 on CHI money line to win 5171.25...You now are at a point that if HOU wins you end up with $6000 with no winnings and if HOU loses you end up with about $4966, losing 1k in the process...But like you, my gambling juices don&#x27;t going with this prospect, so I would recommend trying to middle on a nice half time line and put down like $4000 on CHI at the half and cheer for the middle...Just make sure you get a window larger then 6 points as hitting right on 7 would end up with a push and you still walk away with $10k...So from an entertainment and agressive gambling standpoint I would let it ride and then try to go for a middle at the half and walk away with a little more then 14k...If played correctly, this could be the best gambling experience of your life...  I would reccomend if you put the money down at the half to then just sit and watch the game and get wasted in the process ...  I say this because you will either not care that you ended up losing some, but you might just be celebrating an exciting gambling experience as it happens...&#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA;[/Quote]&#xD;&#xA;All I can say is Great freaking post!!  Unreal.  It gives me some options.  Thanks DL36.   &#xD;&#xA;I loved the line, if played correctly, this could be the best gambling experience of your life, that cracked me up.

Bruschi54 · Answer

I have same thoughts on my Saints season total at 9.  Do I hedge with Carolina who still needs to win. &#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;I have 2 season bets on Indy, 10.5 wins and 11 wins.  Won one end and pushing on other.  Will they win this weekend, or do I bank some cash....!?!?!?

To Hedge or not Hedge a wins total on this Sunday?????

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