Lets look at the issue logically in terms of possibilities... I fsomeone can break it down further please tell me if I am missing something...
So HOU +7.5 wins -145 $6000 to win $4137.95
1. Let it ride... which if you like HOU, you got them money line... The risk however is that if they lose, you lose $6000, which is your worst scenario in terms of loses.. and thinking about avoiding this is why you started this thread right?
2. Hedge CHI moneyline
The might be some value in getting moneyline dog as the money you put down will cover losses if
The problem with this is that every cent towards CHI takes a way money on the original HOU +7.5 wins bet but at least you avoid the worse case scenario...
3. Play CHI ATS
If CHI is a dog, you might have a unique middle situation... If HOU wins by 1 or 2 you middle... Just think if the line goes to +3.5! You also avoid the worst case scenario... The disadvantage of this strategy is that you will have to pay -110 odds likely, which is less value then money line in the actual hedging process...
4. I want you to consider a final alternate strategy...
Let it ride, but watch the game and look to put some money down on an opportune half time line...
If HOU is up at half time, you might be able to a large middle range...
Think about this...
If HOU is up at the half 24-10 and the half time line is CHI -4, then put some money on CHI...
Your middle numbers are now HOU wins by 1-9 points...
My thinking behind this is that CHI will not give up with their playoff hopes in question... So say they make a come back in the game with some turn overs or kick returns but end up losing 34-30...
HOU wins so you win your +7.5 wins and CHI covers so you win money on that...
5. My overall assessment of your situation is that with the -145 odds, it might serve you better to perserve your $6000 then to try to focus collecting winnings at that pay out rate...
But consider this, if you max out your hedge possibility, putting $4137.95 on CHI money line to win 5171.25...
You now are at a point that if HOU wins you end up with $6000 with no winnings and if HOU loses you end up with about $4966, losing 1k in the process...
But like you, my gambling juices don't going with this prospect, so I would recommend trying to middle on a nice half time line and put down like $4000 on CHI at the half and cheer for the middle...
Just make sure you get a window larger then 6 points as hitting right on 7 would end up with a push and you still walk away with $10k...
So from an entertainment and agressive gambling standpoint I would let it ride and then try to go for a middle at the half and walk away with a little more then 14k...
If played correctly, this could be the best gambling experience of your life...
I would reccomend if you put the money down at the half to then just sit and watch the game and get wasted in the process
... I say this because you will either not care that you ended up losing some, but you might just be celebrating an exciting gambling experience as it happens...
Let it ride!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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