To hedge or not to hedge, here is the math and why hedging is a bad idea....

Please help Brorher 

Would you hedge a Liverpool  champions league winner Futures that pays around  $8400 ( invested $1440)  ??

If they advance to the final game I  cash for 1800 on a to make final game future ..

I don't see Villarreal beating Liverpool by 2+ Tuesday,  but I am concerned they lose to Man City in the championship.( think Liverpool would beat Real Madrid ) ...

Would you bet Man City to win the championship at +115 ??? If so how much ?? 

I'm tempted to put $3k+ down ...

Many THANKS in advance if you have time !!! 

I understand you're against hedging , but I also know you're a soccer guy .

While Liverpool and Man City have played to 2 draws , I'm intrested to see what you think happens if they meet I the finals ..

DU4L....

I am just seeing this. Hit me up on Twitter if you need an immediate response.

But I certainly hope you didnt cash out. You are in a GREAT position now.

GL

Thank you Brother,  I'll hit you up there in the near future...Have a FANTASTIC summer , can't wait to read your thoughts on the WORLD CUP 

My hate for man city put me in a even better spot ...

Couldn't bring myself to make my largest soccer better ever on a team I despise with passion 

Ended up taking REAL MADRID at +1000 for $420 before the match to win the UCL

https://www.covers.com/forum/soccer-36/please-help-do-i-hedge-this-champions-league-future-103637716

After reading this.... Im pretty sure I cant wait for YOUR World Cup thread!

6 months and counting...

Hopefully FIFA 23 on the ps4 gives accurate predictions for the world cup , or I'll be broke 

 urban jungle

16 year old thread being bumped.  I was excited.  But it was just spam.

The only best way to hedge is hedging your futures bet.

For example: Last season if you got Eagles 10 to 1 odds to win the super bowl then a week before the super bowl between the Chiefs vs Eagles matchup. Place a bet on the Chiefs -1. You can bet the same amount on the Chiefs you did on Eagles futures or you can be 5 times on the Chiefs to even value with the 10 to 1 Eagles bet. Now you hedged on both teams to make profit.

 Alot of time I will put together a bullshit parlay with a late game in there just case I hit the early ones, I can hedge out and guarante $.

Why not just leave the last "bullshit game" out of the parlay if you're just gonna hedge it later and pay juice anyway.  

I can’t wait to see your plate for Thursday and the weekend. I also love the Jets Monday night and hoping your on the same side

lol at post #2.   15 year old stupidity cracking me up today.  

@vanzack

 Gamblers unwilling to do the math and yet blame bad luck for losing on a consistent basis. Even worse is the ignorance of the accumulated Vig of betting high volumes of games over time. More math swept under the rug.

@Newtons Law

 Do you post NBA picks

@vanzack

 Do you pick NBA games

“The harder I work, the more lucky I get.” -Thomas Jefferson.      Your analysis proves this man correct   

16 year old thread, and still relevant.  This gets discussed every day on twitter and here at covers.  Still widely misunderstood.

I love looking at all of the banned avatars from days gone by.

@vanzack

 Im glad this got bumped up from so long ago. Its something ive never thought about. 

Ive been betting a long time and im basically around even all time, slightly losing many years, more recently being a winner the last few seasons as I've learned. I usually have a couple fun cheap parlays i play each week during football season and ive always hedged that last game, never thought about it like this. 

From now on i will do it the way you suggested. A couple times this year i actually hit those longshot parlays but i hedged away half my profit. 

Yes but its always nice to be reminded.  

You can bring a horse to water but you cant make them drink it.

Some People still believe the world flat and covid is fake.  All you can do is put facts out.  You cant help how someone interprets it!

Hedging depends on other factors too.  I started out as a parlay lotto guy.  If you play enough parlay, you would also notice that your last leg is usually the ones that fawks you up.  Maybe it has something with the last game of the day being jinx or Monday night being shady.  

Now hedging depends on the individual and how much the parlay pot is.  If $100 ticket pays $10,000, you know darn well I'll hedge for half pay because I have never seen what $5k looks like before.  If it pays $700 on a three teamer, let her ride.  $700 is chump change to some folks.  

Now there's the third strategy.  No matter how much my payout on a parlay will be, I'll hedge the last leg to get my initial wager back.  

So it's either even or a handsome pay.  Can't lose this way.  

Why parlay?  Because we are busy to bet single bet and roll all in onto the next leg which pays more.  Parlay should be done in segments.  Early games parlay n cash out, double header parlay n cash out.  Silly would mean betting early, double header, snf, MNF, all on a parlay.  Parlay is still for suckers but it's a lottery and I'm not expecting to win any parlay or lottery anytime soon.  Small bet n take a shot at big time multiplier for fun.  Yes, losing money for fun.  

I raraely hedge but I did this past Sunday. Had a 6 teamer that would hit for significant money heading into the GB game needing GB to cover the spread. Hedged on minnesota and it has been knawing at me since. Could have atleast caught a live game hedge at big + money once they went down. With that said, I only hedged about 20% of the parlay payout. Could have been worse 

Great info 

With the ease of access and in game betting in todays market, hedging can be beneficial with an in-game play trying to hit a middle. Obviously involves risk once the game starts as your line may never land in your favor, but for the most part, you can usually find better in game lines than the opening/closing line. 

Was thinking the same thing...