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Too Much Jacksonville Love

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Posted: #1
Way too much JAX love. Have they all of a sudden found a way to score TDs? That offense looked horrible on the road in Oakland so how will they even score ONE TD in Seattle? At first I was leaning JAX plus the points, but the more I looked into it, the more I started liking Seattle. JAX run game has gone stagnant, and they have no QB to get the ball to receivers. 19 is a lot to give in the NFL, but if you cant score, you cant cover. I see Seattle eclipsing 28 points easily, and I doubt JAX scores a TD. So why all the JAX love? Just because they are +19?

Jacksonville willmore than likely be a big public play

I may lay the 19 or tease them down below 14
 
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Posted: #2
Hawks-44
Jags-6


 
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Posted: #3
I think the Jags have a great shot at staying within the number. this is a sandwich game for the Hawks as they are off San Fran and hve Houston on deck. GL though
 
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Posted: #4
Seakhawk defense completely shut down Collin Kaepernick and the 49er offense... what makes everyone think JAX offense will hang in there longer than 49er offense?
 
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Posted: #5
I think you are missing a few things here to consider...

1.  SEA let down...  If you think about the last game as being a huge division rival game and possible playoff match up, this weak non-divisional match up seems like a let down spot here...

2.  Think about it from a coaching standpoint...

If you are in a game that you are winning by more then 3 scores, you would probably look pretty stupid if one of your key players gets hurt because he is still on the field...  so if the game goes as you see it, SEA should be playing their second string players while JAX keeps their starters in to get as many game reps as possible...  

Also if this is a game that you think can win easily, then you limit the amount of playbook you want to show... meaning if there are things that they want to save in terms of plays, scheme, concept etc.  then it would make sense for SEA to keep it vanilla on both sides of the ball... almost like  preseason football... 

honestly I think the only two plays are JAX or no play here...  You dont seem comfortable with having eat that many points... thats why you talk about a 6 point tease...  If you have to tease a spread then you cant be that comfortable with it... why bet on it then?



 
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Posted: #6
Quote Originally Posted by dl36:

I think you are missing a few things here to consider...

1.  SEA let down...  If you think about the last game as being a huge division rival game and possible playoff match up, this weak non-divisional match up seems like a let down spot here...

2.  Think about it from a coaching standpoint...

If you are in a game that you are winning by more then 3 scores, you would probably look pretty stupid if one of your key players gets hurt because he is still on the field...  so if the game goes as you see it, SEA should be playing their second string players while JAX keeps their starters in to get as many game reps as possible...  

Also if this is a game that you think can win easily, then you limit the amount of playbook you want to show... meaning if there are things that they want to save in terms of plays, scheme, concept etc.  then it would make sense for SEA to keep it vanilla on both sides of the ball... almost like  preseason football... 

honestly I think the only two plays are JAX or no play here...  You dont seem comfortable with having eat that many points... thats why you talk about a 6 point tease...  If you have to tease a spread then you cant be that comfortable with it... why bet on it then?




Some faith in covers nfl capping...

Has been restored
 
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Posted: #7
They had a similar situation last season against Arizona and Buffalo scores were Hawks 58 Cards 0 and Hawks 50 Bills 17 I just don't see them letting off the gas even if they do they will still be in the high 40's with the Jags with a number closer to 0 than 10
 
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Posted: #8
In the NFL, over the years, favorites over 14 points cover only abut 25% of the time, I'm more than happy to pass on this one, but if you have any hesitancy, find another team to bet on - why are you preoccupied with this one, would you be afraid to take the Broncos and lay the 14+ against the Raiders Monday night?
 
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Posted: #9
seattle WILL have a letdown--to the tune of only 31-6
 
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Posted: #10
My point exactly speak
 
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Posted: #11

Okay rookie. Lay off the ESPN a little bit and maybe you'll get an objective point of view.

You'll understand why gambling is gambling soon enough. The downfall of the average bettor is the "what have you done for me lately" mentality. ESPN does a great job of reminding you constantly about what a team has done lately.

 
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Posted: #12

Quote Originally Posted by tothemoney:

They had a similar situation last season against Arizona and Buffalo scores were Hawks 58 Cards 0 and Hawks 50 Bills 17 I just don't see them letting off the gas even if they do they will still be in the high 40's with the Jags with a number closer to 0 than 10

Not a similar situation. They came into the first game beating Chicago 23-17, a close win against a NON DIVISIONAL OPPONENT, not a blowout VS a divisional opp in which they would extend tremendous amounts of energy and effort.

A similar situation would be after beating a hated DIVISIONAL OPPONENT the 49ers 42-13 then failing to cover as 11 favs the next week.

 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by oli_renaud91:


Some faith in covers nfl capping...

Has been restored

My only problem is this... when has Petey Carrol EVER let off the gas/break EVER?

Answer=NEVER

You guys can spout all the stats you want about big dogs covering 75% or w/e, but not looking at the situation and pete's/seattle's history of going full throttle all 60 minutes regardless. It's his style, the team's style, and he's not gonna let up just because the poor jax jag's come to town or he's afraid of a few injuries.

No play for me, but BOL

 
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Posted: #14
Giants by 20.
 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by GregmLV:

My only problem is this... when has Petey Carrol EVER let off the gas/break EVER?

Answer=NEVER

You guys can spout all the stats you want about big dogs covering 75% or w/e, but not looking at the situation and pete's/seattle's history of going full throttle all 60 minutes regardless. It's his style, the team's style, and he's not gonna let up just because the poor jax jag's come to town or he's afraid of a few injuries.

No play for me, but BOL


Pete Carroll maybe full throttle, but he's playing against his former defensive coordinator, Gus Bradley.  So I'm not sure he will try to run up the score.

But then again, the Jags will have difficulty scoring more than 3 points.
 
 
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