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Trends & Things 2009 NFL preseason HOF - week 1

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Veteran
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Posted: #51
SOOO MUCH INFO !!!!!
 
im loss
 
Captain
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Posted: #52
Hey everyone ....
 
Friday ...I passed on some of the trends favoring the dogs above ...
such as Minnesota + Denver ...
Friday, August 14

St. Louis at N.Y. Jets (7:05 p.m. EDT)
St. Louis - 1-5 as dog… 3-12 ATS Away One… 3-7 SUATS vs AFC… 0-5 UNDER > 37… 1-5 UNDER Game One
NY JETS - 4-1 SU/ATS Game One… 5-2 SU/ATS Home One… 2-4-1 as fav
Play : NY Jets

Minnesota at Indianapolis (7:30 p.m. EDT)
Minnesota - SERIES: 4-0… 5-0 vs AFC… 8-3 SU/ATS as dog Game One… 2-4 UNDER Game One
INDIANAPOLIS - 0-5 SU/ATS Home One… 1-7 L8 home games… 3-15 SU and 5-13 ATS L4Y… 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS Game One… 10-4 OVER vs NFC
Play : Minnesota

Cincinnati at New Orleans (8:00 p.m. EDT)
Cincinnati - SERIES: 0-5 SU/ATS… 3-9 SU Game One…
LEWIS: 0-9 w/pre season revenge
NEW ORLEANS - 0-11 (1-10 SU) Home One… 2-13 ATS
(3-12 SU) fav… 2-6 SUATS Game One… 3-9-1 UNDER vs AFC 1-5… UNDER Game One… PAYTON: 1-3 SU/ATS fav

Denver at San Francisco (10:00 p.m. EDT)
Denver - 9-3-1 Game One… 19-9 vs NFC (11-3-1 away)… 1-7 UNDER Away One
SAN FRANCISCO - SERIES: 1-9 SU and 2-8 ATS… 4-1-1 Home One… 6-2 SUATS L8 home… 8-3-1 last 12 games
Play : Denver
>>>>>>
Instead ...there are 2 pending trend picks ...with Cleveland and Chicago on Saturday .
Here are some of the aforementioned trends >>>
 
Atlanta at Detroit (4:00 p.m. EDT)
Atlanta - SERIES: 2-0-1… 3-0 RF's… 2-4 Away One
DETROIT - 1-6-1 L8 as fav… 3-9-3 HF in season opener

Chicago at Buffalo (7:00 p.m. EDT)
Chicago - SERIES: 8-1 SU/ATS… 8-2 Away One Game One… 7-3-1 vs AFC… SMITH: 6-1 dog 3 >
BUFFALO - 3-13 Home One… 0-10 UNDER vs NFC…
0-4 UNDER Game 1… JAURON: 1-9 SU and 0-10 last ten home
Play : Chicago

Cleveland at Green Bay (7:00 p.m. EDT)
Cleveland - 7-3 L10 as dog… 1-5 SUATS vs NFC… 1-5 UNDER Game One… 1-5 UNDER Away One… MANGINI: visitor 9-2-1
GREEN BAY - 10-3 SU/ATS Home One… 3-9 SU and 4-8 ATS vs AFC… 1-7 UNDER Game One
Play : Under

Tampa Bay at Tennessee (7:00 p.m. EDT)
Tampa Bay - SERIES: 4-0 SUATS… 5-0-1 (6-0 SU) Game One
TENNESSEE - 1-3 SUATS Home One… 2-6 SU/ATS last six home

Houston at Kansas City (7:00 p.m. EDT)
Houston - 3-0 SUATS Away One… 2-4-1 Game One… 3-0 OVER Game One
KANSAS CITY - 3-17 L5Y… 1-4 SUATS Game One… 1-6-1 UNDER Home One
Play : Houston

Seattle at San Diego (10:00 p.m. EDT)
Seattle - 4-1 SUATS Away One… 4-2 SUATS Game One
SAN DIEGO - SERIES: 2-6 SU and 1-7 ATS… 2-6 Game One… TURNER: 2-5 Game One
 
Play : Seattle
 
Captain
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Posted: #53
To be honest , in just about every single game , the underdog looks to be the proper side to take .
Underdogs , we know have been hitting at a level that contarians would only dream of during the regular season , particularly during this age of Turkey-day favorite stuffings along with shootouts on every monday night game.
 
If anything else , as long as they are hitting ( underdogs )  consistently above 50 % ,
particularly on week 1 of preseason , focusing one's attention on the side with a higher percentage of winners and drawing more teams ( picks ) from that lot will conceivably give you a better chance to produce winners !
There are then the many concepts unique to preseason that you can apply to choose wich teams deserve your attention .
 
On another front , 2 min wrning's team selections based on 1 or multiple parameters ( 5 total ) have looked weak thus far ..., ( Atlanta would be next ) ....That being said, it is week 2 of preseason where these seem to come alive ...
 
Do your own diligence !
and keep that in mind ....
 
As for the trend picks ...Denver really should have been there , as the trends h2h were pretty strong supporting a Broncos cover .
 
Houston over Kansas City , with KC's preseason ineptitude rivalring the one the Colts seem to match ....it is the Texans that deserve the trend pick backing ...
 
Tampa Bay owns the h2h battle against the Titans, have played well on game one unlike the Titans who have struggle in 1st week of preseason ( HOF counted as prior game to w1 ) also deserve consideration .
 
The same can also be said for Seattle over San Diego ....
 
Ironically ,
 Cleveland may have the least trend support from the lot , but With all these new coaches making debuts , some consideration should be made to new " old " coaches such as it is the case with Eric Mangini taking over for the Bowns .
 In his short tenure with the NY Jets Mangini already established a winning trend when on the road.
 
The 2 min warning stat :
  1. In week one, POOR prior season teams are 12-21 ATS at home against POOR or AVERAGE away teams.
having failed with Dallas , but still remaining viable with Houston and Cleveland as the remaining choices is the primary play with the Browns ...
With that in mind , and with Houston having other trends backing them also ...The Texans will be added to the mix of Underdog trend picks ...
Houston + 3 @ KC is an underdog trend pick as well ....
Clevleland , Chicago , and Houston are all underdog trend selections ....
 
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Captain
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Posted: #54
R Fiory awesome job bro. This info is awesome. Good luckto you on the year and keep up the post.
 
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Posted: #55
Just one thing Roberto with new coaches, players (a significant amount, i.e. Kansas City), emphasis on the the trend factor is probably overvalued.
 
CHIEFS -2
 
Good Luck!!!
"I'm afraid all we may have done is awakened a sleeping giant."
 
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Posted: #56
mrusso...I respect your opinion and choices...
 
For the sake of argument ...I will offer this post as it was presented ...>>
 
Here is an interesting stat; of all the current NFL head coaches in the league that took over their current positions from 2006 until last year they were just 3-10 ATS in their debut home preseason game with their new team.

That's a tough trend for first year Kansas City coach Todd Haley to snap as he makes first start at Arrowhead Stadium.
The biggest noise coming out of camp lately is star wide receiver Dwayne Bowe being placed on the 3rd team wide receiver group in the depth chart this week which makes us scratch our heads. Veteran receiver Bobby Engram admitted to the media that Haley is not at all happy with this receivers up to this point. In his rookie season as a head coach the former 'Zona Offensive Coordinator has a tough gig taking over this Chiefs team which is arguably top to bottom the least talented team in the league.
Also another question is how is this team going to do in their new 3-4 defensive system under ex-Cardinals DC Clancy Pendergast?

On the other hand the Gary Kubiaks' Houston Texans are a team with legit playoff chances this season for the first time in franchise history.
Both of these teams are young but the difference is Kubiak's depth chart is deeper as this game wears on. Frank Bush, who has been an assistant with the team will now take over as Defensive Coordinator.
 They are going to be an eight-man front and force offenses to go through the air, so you can expect a lot more pressure and blitzing from the Texans this season. It will be interesting to see how the Cheifs QB's react.
Bush actually worked as LB coach under KC Defensive Coordinator Pendergrast for three seasons in Arizona.

The Chiefs have brought in some veteran guys for leadership like Mike Brown, Bobby Engram, Amani Toomer, Zach Thomas, and Mike Vrabel in the off season.
All guys who most likely aren't going to go full throttle here in these preseason games.The Texans are loaded with young talent that may not be as familiar to the betting public outside of the Houston area. Loads of young guys in their 2nd, 3rd, and 4th year in the league and getting comfortable under Kubiaks system who have something to play for this preseason.
 They are clearly much deeper at almost every position then the Chiefs

A key thing when handicapping who will cover the spread in these preseason games is knowing the QB rotation.
 If we compare starters of course Matt Schaub has the edge on Matt Cassel. They don't matter as much because they will only be playing in the first quarter.
 We have to handicap the remainder of the game with the 2nd and 3rd string QB's. Let's look at Houston's back ups; Dan Orvlosky and Rex Grossman preseason stats from last year. Orvlosky had a 59% completion percentage and 2 TD/1 INT. Grossman had a 56% completion percentage and 2 TD/1 INT. Now let's glance at the Chiefs back ups Brodie Croyle and Tyler Thigpen. Croyle had a 58% completion percentage and 0 TD/1 INT. Thigpen had a 45% completion percentage and 2 TD/3 INT's.
It's a clear cut advantage who is going to control the ball more effective down the stretch of the game and that is the Houston back ups.

Also remember that Croyle who we believe will play the biggest hunk of time in this game, missed all the offseason practices because he was rehabbing from knee surgery, returned to play when the Chiefs started training camp two weeks ago.
So he will be rusty still without a doubt. In the 4th quarter it will be Rex Grossman in for Houston and Thigpen in for Kansas City; we much rather back the QB with Super Bowl experience over Thigpen. Experience down the stretch is key in these August games.

Some interesting notes Houston is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 preseason games as a dog. In head coach Gary Kubiaks tenure they are 7-3-2 ATS in preseason games. The Chiefs are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 preseason home games.
 Houston has won three of the last four meetings in the preseason and regular season both straight up and ATS.
 
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As always , best of luck with your selections !
RF
 
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Posted: #57
 
Captain
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Posted: #58
Updating :
 
Houston comes through as an underdog trend pick ...
Chicago and Cleveland do not ...1-2 on Saturday ..
Now 2-2-1 YTD
That's particularly disheartening considering :
 
trends as I highlighted above pointed to :
 
Seattle won ATS
Houston won ATS
Clev-GB Under won ( scored 17 points )
Chicago Lost
 
But, the information is still out there for everyone to use ...
 
Given the results , trend picks should have gone 2-1 ...not the reverse ...Bad selecting on my part from a " pool " of winners
 
On another front , 2 min warning trend based selections were quite good after the shaky start going 3-1 on Saturday...
( now 4-4 for week 1 )
Ignoring Atlanta and Seattle turned out to be a mistake ...
 
Saturday 15-Aug Atlanta Detroit -3.0 2, 5    Atlanta W
Saturday 15-Aug Chicago Buffalo -3.0 5     
Saturday 15-Aug Tampa Bay Tennessee -3.5 5     
Saturday 15-Aug Houston Kansas City -1.5 4, 5    Houston W
Saturday 15-Aug Cleveland Green Bay -3.0 4, 5    Cleveland L
Saturday 15-Aug Seattle San Diego -3.5 3, 5    Seattle W
Sunday 17-Aug Jacksonville Miami -3.0 5     
Sunday 17-Aug Carolina N.Y. Giants -3.0 5     
 
 
Moving on to MNF and last 2 games of week 1 >>>
 
Captain
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Posted: #59
This one is simple ...
Both Jacksonville and Carolina have favorable trends on their behalf .
As I posted earlier in this thread :
 
Monday, August 17

Jacksonville at Miami (7:30 p.m. EDT)
Jacksonville - SERIES: dog 5-1… 10-3 L13 away… 10-4 SUATS vs AFC… DEL RIO: 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS as dog
MIAMI - 2-8 SU Game One… 6-17-1 Home One
Play : Jacksonville

Carolina at N.Y. Giants (8:00 p.m. EDT)
Carolina - 15-4 vs NFC (10-2 dog)… 6-2 Game One… 4-2 SU/ATS Away One… FOX: 8-3 dog… 8-0 OVER vs NFC… 6-1 OVER Game One
NY GIANTS - SERIES: 1-5 SUATS… 3-10 SU and 3-9-1 ATS vs NFC
Play : Carolina
 
We see that in these 2 matchups , no new coaches are involved... 
In fact, we could call these matchups on MNF , the battle of the experienced coaches !
11 teams trotted out  their new coaches so far this preseason but this MNF games belong to the veteran coaches
( ok 1 a sophmore )
 
 Jacksonville offers Jack Del Rio , with the team since 2003 ...
 Tony Sparano coaching in his second year with the Dolphins .
Jonh Fox has been with the Panthers since 2002
Tom Coughlin has been with the NY Giants since 2004
 
Focusing on Jack Del Rio :
 
Jack Del Rio's record since he took over the Jaguars :
 
2003 : 3-1 SU , 3-1 ATS , 3-0 as Dog , 1-0 vs Miami ( SU/ATS )
2004 : 3-1 SU , 2-2 ATS , 1-0 as Dog , 0-1 @ Miami PK ( SU/ ATS )
2005 : 2-2 SU , 2-2 ATS, 1-1 as Dog, 1-0 vs Miami ( SU/ATS )
2006 : 3-1 SU , 3-1 ATS , 2-0 as Dog , 1-0 @ Miami ( SU/ATS )
2007 : 3-1 SU , 3-1 ATS , 0-0 as Dog , 0-1 @ Miami ( SU/ATS )
( Jacksonville lost 17-18 as 1.5 point favorites @ Miami )
2008 : 3-1 SU , 2-2 ATS , 1-0 as Dog , 0-1 vs Miami ( SU/ATS )
 
Jacksonville , then , under Jack Del Rio has gone 17-7 SU and
15-9 ATS during this span .
Jacksonville has gone 8-1 ATS as underdogs
 
Jacksonville is 3-3 SU vs Miami overall during preseason and these have been the scores when playing @ Miami >>>
lost 5-16 in 2004 , won 31-26 in 2006 , lost 17-18 in 2007
 
Tony Sparano did well in preseason debut going 3-1 SU/ATS , including the victory @ Jacksonville LY
 
Longer term , however Miami has a history of failures in week 1 of preseason , and in their fist home game ... 
trends that Tony Sparano could not avoid even in his succesful 3-1 preseason debut ...as his team lost to Tampa Bay 6-17 week 1 @ home...
You figure out the matchups , but the trends do favor Jacksonville , so they are in as an underdog trend pick
I would need to look at the other matchup in more detail, so I'll make just one trend pick for now ...
 
Trend picks record :
 
YTD >>> 2-2-1
 
" Underdog " trend picks : 1-2-1
" totals " trend picks : 1-0
" favorite " trend picks : 0-0 
 
 
2008-2009 season: 
 
" Underdog " Trend picks : 10-6
" Favorite "  trend picks : 6-8
" Totals " trend picks : 5-2
 
Overall >>> Trend picks : 21-16 ( 56.7 % )  
 
2007-2008 season:
 
Trend Picks : 12-2-1 ( 85.7 % ) !~
 
Last 2 years combined >>>
 
33-18-1 ( 64.7 % )
 
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Captain
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Posted: #60

Good luck with your plays ...!

 
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Posted: #61
 GL as always Roberto.
 
You never got back to me on that contest either?
 
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Posted: #62
I did fightintigraz , but ...
the thread was moved ...to office pools ...
 
If you can take over from week 1 ...that would be great
Thanks !
 
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Posted: #63
Carolina is also an Underdog trend pick
There are some trends to back that up ...
 
 
 
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Posted: #64
Got ya Roberto. I will PM you later.
 
 
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Posted: #65
Roberto, outstanding info you provide. While I had the over in Carolina-NYG, I can imagine your frustration at the dumb ass call that lost the game. A blip on the road toward continued success.
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