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Trends & Things NFL Preseason 2007

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Captain
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Posted: #26
Great Info Rob
 
Captain
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Posted: #27
Great Info Rob
 
Covers Rehab
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Posted: #28
GO SAINTS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
Captain
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Posted: #29
  1. ( Week 2 ) --Road Dogs with zero wins are 36-22 (62%)

Other teams other than Tennessee  that qualify in this category week 2 are :

Atlanta , Minnesota , Houston, New Orleans , and New York Giants

********************************************************************************

This nice trend stat held up very well on Friday ...

as Tennessee , Atlanta , and Minnesota not only all covered

but also  won their games outright ! 

 

 

 
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Posted: #30
Quote Originally Posted by kwells68:

Trends are great conversation pieces......there are always usually two sides to a trend.

I will throw this out there...

play on any nfl preseason road dog (or pick) off a su home loss of 7>points as a favorite of -3 > vs, an opponent off a su road win...

since 1983 the ats record is 15-0

Play:  Minnesota


 

I have been racking my brain trying to figure this out and it does not compute:

On 8/10/07 Minn was at home as a +1 dog against STL and Lost 10-13

Also on 8/10/07 NYJ were at home and won 31-16

 
Veteran
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Posted: #31
so kwells68 how did you arrive at the play being Minnesota???
 
Captain
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Posted: #32
curtlaw ....
For all it's worth ...
I do not put too much value on trends that have too many variables
on them .
I said that all of last year , and will repeat it again this year.
I did not bother to check those stats because for trends to have
validity they must be pretty straightforward...otherwise you get to the point where you can create trends supporting both sides of equal value.
For those of you interested in following this thread througtout the year ...please keep this in mind!
 
As for the first two weeks of the preseason....let me spell it out for you ...
You should closely look at the underdogs.
And find reasons to take them .
OUT.
 
 
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Posted: #33
Preseason update on Favs/Dogs & O/U
based on Covers ...lines
 
HOF :      1-0...0-1 
Week 1 : 8-8...7-8-1
Week 2 : 1-4...2-3
 
Going into SAT Aug 18 games :
 
Favs :   10
Dogs :  12
Overs :  9
Unders: 12
 
Captain
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Posted: #34
I hesitated to bring up this trend because
you could easily argue that its has no pertinence
whatsoever in this matchup...but there it is anyway >>
 
Saturday August 18 2007
 
Game : Denver @ Dallas
current line : Denver + 4.5 / 4
 
DENVER is 22-5 ATS when playing on a Saturday since 1993.
DENVER is 29-15 ATS  in non-conference games since 1993.
 
Denver has also won 7 out of the last 8 games in preseason .
 
 
Captain
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Posted: #35
Quote Originally Posted by RobertoFiory:

  1. ( Week 2 ) --Road Dogs with zero wins are 36-22 (62%)

Other teams other than Tennessee  that qualify in this category week 2 are :

Atlanta , Minnesota , Houston, New Orleans , and New York Giants

********************************************************************************

This nice trend stat held up very well on Friday ...

as Tennessee , Atlanta , and Minnesota not only all covered

but also  won their games outright ! 

 

 

 

Houston joins the crowd with a cover and another win...

Let's hope New Orleans joins them as well...

 
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Posted: #36
Roberto,
 
I must say this is an excellent post.  Cleaned up on the overs based on your post here (Week 2) and..............made a bunch on the Saints based on this and your picks post.
 
You are the "gamehunter" of football.  Looking forward to a great season reading your posts and playing your picks.
 
THANK YOU,
 
Navy    
 
Captain
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Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by RobertoFiory:

 

Houston joins the crowd with a cover and another win...

Let's hope New Orleans joins them as well...

 

6 teams qualified for this highlighted trend on week 2 >>>>>

Tennessee winless road dog >>>>>WINNER

Atlanta winless road dog >>>>>>>>WINNER

MInnesota winless road dog >>>>>>WINNER

Houston winless road dog >>>>>WINNER

New Orleans winless road dog >>>>>WINNER

NY Giants winless road dog >>>>> ???

 

 

 
Captain
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Posted: #38
Quote Originally Posted by RobertoFiory:

New Orleans will be the Underdog Trend Pick of the Week
 
Saturday August 18
Game : New Orleans @ Cincinnati
current line : New Orleans + 3.5 / 3
 
 
 
Home favorites against better prior year teams are 51-77 (40%)

In a game of winless sides, underdogs  are  104-72 record (59%)

( Week 2 ) >>> Road Dogs with zero wins are 36-22  (62%)

 

New Orleans is a winner as the underdog pick of the week

 
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Posted: #39
Quote Originally Posted by RobertoFiory:

 

6 teams qualified for this highlighted trend on week 2 >>>>>

Tennessee winless road dog >>>>>WINNER

Atlanta winless road dog >>>>>>>>WINNER

MInnesota winless road dog >>>>>>WINNER

Houston winless road dog >>>>>WINNER

New Orleans winless road dog >>>>>WINNER

NY Giants winless road dog >>>>> ???

 

 

 

How can I argue with that trending...GL Roberto

 
Captain
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Posted: #40
What can I say ....
 
It doesn't get much better than this  when it comes to bringing up a valuable trend !
It  looked good  from the getgo..and it held up to perfection.
 
It  ended up a perfect 6-0 as all road dogs on week 2 that came into the matchup having lost on week 1 came away not only  covering the spread -but also winning the game outright .
 
You all may want to put this one aside and keep it in mind for next year.
This is what this thread is all about !
 
 
 
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Posted: #41

I followed your thread last year and found it extremely useful . You are the man.
Great stuff Roberto.  Let us know what you think for MNF
 
By the way we have the same initials.
 
Keep up the great work.
 
Captain
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Posted: #42
Ok ..here is what I got trend wise for the Monday nighter...>>>>
 
  1. Home underdogs with 0 wins coming into a game are 38-19 (67%)

This would make Indianapolis the play .....

 
Prospect
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Posted: #43

HI RobertoFiory i was wondering is there anyway i can contact you?

What do you think i should pick for Monday night?

 
All-Star
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Posted: #44
Quote Originally Posted by RobertoFiory:

Ok ..here is what I got trend wise for the Monday nighter...>>>>
 
  1. Home underdogs with 0 wins coming into a game are 38-19 (67%)

This would make Indianapolis the play .....



RF,

Is this the trend for pre-season? 
 
MVP
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Posted: #45
GL Roberto on what you take, seemingly INDY, but I can't seem to want to take them. CHI is the play for me.
 
Captain
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Posted: #46
gl RF, you are freakin' amazing.  great info, pleasant to read and most of all a winner...
 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #47
Holy crap man. I remember u from last year and u had some awesome stuff. Up to more of the same I see. This is exactly what this forum is all about.
 
You, sir a shining example.
 
 
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Posted: #48
Nice numbers RF.  Look forward to seeing more of you when the season starts. 
 
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Posted: #49
I don't mean to burst your bubble Roberto but YOU didn't pick those games as YOUR picks.  Your trends were there for us to read and make decisions on (if we wished), but YOUR PICKS were ...
NewOrleans
Denver
New England
 
Your trends are great but to throw all those winners up and take credit for actually picking them is not cool.
No hard feelings.
 
 
Captain
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Posted: #50
Rob F.
With all respect with your trends. I also like Indy + 3 tonight.
 
Good luck!
 
I should have found your trend earlier this week I was really bad!
Tonight I will riding with your Colt.
 
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