Unders' Club Super Bowl Record: 0-0
When I'm looking at a game, I try to put aside all the hype. A lot of the time, and sometimes for good reason, the media will drum something up like "Burrow v. Mahomes" - an everyone automatically thinks it's going to be a shootout. Last week might be a good example, over/under closed at 48.5, and I'm not sure but I'm guessing most were on the over. Another example would be, "Brady is the GOAT, Brady doesn't lose big games, Brady's arm is still strong and/or Brady isn't scared in the pocket, ect..." Again, I have no idea, but it seemed like most were gonna be on Brady. This obviously isn't going to be automatic, or a 100% system, but all we're looking for is to hit 6 / 10 games, and if we're getting added value on a certain side, because of the perceived hype, then I like to take those.
In this game, there are two teams:
Team A - great oline, great weapons, great play calling, a QB who is great in the system he's in; great dline, solid backers, great dbs.
Team B - great oline, average weapons, great play calling, best QB who will win the game on his own if he has to; solid dline, solid backers, ok dbs.
In my opinion, I like the more complete team, Team A. Mahomes is terrific, no questioning that, but I honestly believe that he doesn't have the weapons like he used to. Hill the past few seasons would stretch the field and create so much open space. The Chiefs would have the ball on their 10, Hill would run to the opposing 40 an Mahomes would find Kelcie underneath or take off on his own. For this game, whose stretching the field? On top of the lack of speed for the wide outs, the Eagles don't blitz that often- they get pressure with four. That's going to have one extra backer covering the middle (Kelcie and/or dig routes). Coupled with corners that will cancel out the wide outs, and Mahomes sore ankle (not gonna say it's a big deal, but it may be a small one), I think the Chiefs are going to struggle to move the ball - they haven't exactly looked great in the playoffs.
On the other side of the ball, I think the Chiefs are susceptible to the run. Everyone wants to get all on the Eagles schedule, who cares, they ran the ball on everyone they faced, it's not their fault some would argue its poorer competition. If a team, any team, does something well the entire year, chances are, they're good at it. The Eagles triple option is great, and Hurts is very good at running it. 49ers defence obviously was tired two weeks ago, but the Eagles were moving it well... an the Chiefs are not the 49ers. I think the Eagles are gonna use the option, an I also think there are going to be a couple of deep shots, where the wide outs for the Eagles are far superior to the dbs of the Chiefs.
I'm seeing a lot of value on the Eagles, who maybe should be -3? They're the more complete team, and they have more options to make this game work for them. The Chiefs plan, what... keep it close so Mahomes can do something spectacular on the last drive... not always gonna happen.
I'm going to take the Eagles ML, at -121 for $5,000.
Good luck everyone, enjoy the game, as much as I hate how the Bengals got jerked around, this definitely seems like the best match up!
Wiseman picked da fixed angle is definitely on the Chiefs AGAIN hahaha. I would tread lightly.
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