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Unit sizes@ Van+luckyguy+others

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Posted: #51

@zircon

 Oops ignore post 50 I ignored the juicean_roll_laughan_roll_laugh was thinking of my +100 example lol 

 

And great points by you and the OP

 

OVER/UNDER 5.5 on drinks consumed between post#1 and post#19 

 
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Posted: #52

Quote Originally Posted by Raiders22:

@kcblitzkrieg  Your point is valid.  But you really would not see that as much in NFL as you would in sports like MLB.  The lines are pretty consistent in NFL around -105 to -120.  Whereas, in MLB they can be very different.  But even in NFL if you take an underdog on the ML that would skew it as well. That is why it is best to post both the record and the +/- units.   I do not think there is an obligation to do it any particular way.  But if someone is looking to see who might be good or hot, it would help.  That way you can see if someone is consistent or if he is really on fire with his larger unit plays, etc. I think his overall point was that some guys might be hitting at a low winning percentage, say 53% but their total units seem to reflect a better record than they have.  Now he would have to do a lot of research to see if the guy is just better at his higher unit plays or did he 'sneak' a 10 unit bomb or two in there and hit those.   In NFL percentage is what it is by and large because the lines are fairly consistent.  But in MLB, like you say, the winning percentage is not a true indicator if the guy is playing all huge ML favorites when he loses. The thing to me is, the guys he mentioned I do not think do that.  They consistently post what is their 'standard unit' range plays.  Yes, it would help to know if some folks are hitting their 1-unit plays at a lower rate then their 5-unit plays.   If you are going to 'blindly follow' someone it does not matter -- adjust your unit sizes as they do.  But if you are looking at several guys to decide on a play and how to play it -- it helps to know if the guy is hitting his higher units at a higher rate.  You see some guys that post and they do post their winning percentages on different unit-size plays.  Amazingly enough, they are some that hit their larger unit sizes at a lower clip than their smaller unit plays.   But if someone is posting 2-4 unit-sized plays or 10-30 unit-sized plays it should not matter that much.  It is when someone is posting 10 unit plays and is losing -- then all of a sudden has a 100 unit bomb play or two and hits them.  That would not be consistent or fair to people trying to use that info. But nearly all handicappers will have a stronger play on some bets than others. I took that to be his overall point. Again, I do not think the guys he mentioned are being deceptive like that. I realize that a lot of people like the action and do not have the time (or wherewithal, or knowledge) to do their own research.  So, they rely on Covers to help them.  It should be frustrating when someone is up a few units and now they have a 50-unit play.  You would really have to wonder is that a good play. The easiest thing is to post both the percentage and the units up and sizing.  I see some folks break it all the way down to average line played and ROI, etc. Again, I do not think this is necessary or obligatory.  If you are on here enough -- you kind of should have an idea of who is who in each sport, etc. If you do not like the way someone posts their record, simply do not follow them at all. But I do understand his point and/or frustration.

 

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Posted: #53

@dubz4dummyz

 

Yes, obviously much more common in nhl/mlb but it is going on right now on some threads in the NFL forum....guys only post $2-3 juice plays and count their WINs & LOSSes but NO UNITS....but my point to @zircon was that the argument flips both ways and as you said, if you are following someone that is on YOU to make sure YOU know what the hell is going on.  There is no "one size fits all" standard we are talking about...  I vehemently disagree with the "all plays should be 1u based on 1% of your BR".  There are going to be plays that are much LESS risk that you are going to want to leverage that into a higher payout with a higher probability play.  If someone can't understand this then please stick with your 1%/1u and go on about your business because you are not ready to RISK any more.  

No one has even brought up Unit size with regards to different sports an_light

I know there are guys here that Unit UP / lever UP for specific sports.... they may play 1-2u NBA but 5 unit NFL or 10u WOMENS TENNIS.  Guys/gals that know what they are doing and have been doing it long enough know their advantage in whatever sport / angle / setup they are looking at.  What is the argument against this type of variance???  There should not be one.... 

Not everyone here is trying to "follow" or "tail".  Not everyone here is a wannabe tout.  Some guys just like the action and the action of the forum.  If COVERs wanted a "industry standard" for everyone to follow because "that's why we're here" then COVERs could institute one....BUT, this site is here for ENTERTAINMENT, and should be treated as such peace_5

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Posted: #54

Quote Originally Posted by dubz4dummyz:

@zircon  Oops ignore post 50 I ignored the juice was thinking of my +100 example lol    And great points by you and the OP   OVER/UNDER 5.5 on drinks consumed between post#1 and post#19

100 units on the Over, please... an_roll_laugh

 
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Posted: #55

@kcblitzkrieg

 Again, you are completely missing the point... No one is arguing any of that. If someone wants to wager larger or smaller amounts on certain sports because of whatever reason all the power to them......

We are not talking about that at all.

 

We are talking about a presentation of numbers that are indeed the same numbers... but presented differently to seem more enticing  or to appear better/superior to another bettor or for whatever reason that individual desires...this has become industry standard and is not debatable as numbers don't lie

 

You are talking about a completely different topic....yes lots of bettors wager more per sport they feel they know better...but again no one arguing that we are strictly talking about number presentation here

 
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Posted: #56

@kcblitzkrieg

 Very good points.  I just assumed folks were comparing one sport at a time to each other, in this case the NFL -- where lines are mostly -105 to -120, etc.  You are correct that each sport is different for some folks.  For example, I know my unit size for NFL is way larger than it is for MLB; it is larger for soccer than NHL -- and varies between other sports.  There are fewer games and and fewer spots to pick in some sports and the lines vary way more.  So, I try to maximize the spots I think I see.  With a sport with way more games there is a lot more variance and streaks and things that adversely affect the outcomes (but can be good as well).  Which is what the folks picking the various unit sizes, supposedly, are doing.  Absolutely, there are spots in each sport where I will go larger.  But for consistency and ease of tracking purposes it just seems easier to post W/L % AND total units -- and maybe even break it down as far as W/L % on each unit size.  But that only works if you have a standard.  If you all of a sudden have a 50-unit bomb -- it does not work.

 
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Posted: #57

Quote Originally Posted by dubz4dummyz:

@kcblitzkrieg  Again, you are completely missing the point... No one is arguing any of that. If someone wants to wager larger or smaller amounts on certain sports because of whatever reason all the power to them...... We are not talking about that at all.   We are talking about a presentation of numbers that are indeed the same numbers... but presented differently to seem more enticing  or to appear better/superior to another bettor or for whatever reason that individual desires...this has become industry standard and is not debatable as numbers don't lie   You are talking about a completely different topic....yes lots of bettors wager more per sport they feel they know better...but again no one arguing that we are strictly talking about number presentation here

 

Yes, I get that.... manipulation of numbers, agreed peace_5.  In the "industry" as in tout / pros you are talking about this is bigly, not the "covers industry" as this is 99% amateur not professional.  If one posts your record and units then anyone "following" you should have no issue figuring out fact from fiction.  

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Posted: #58

@dubz4dummyz

 You are correct and you see this especially with guys advertising their services.  They sometimes will not even present a complete record.  They will also advertise their L20 or whatever to skew it to their advantage. totally deceptive practice.

 
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Posted: #59

@kcblitzkrieg

 Lmao that's the whole point of his post....That covers posters are manipulating numbers because industry standard has taught them it.....hence why no ones numbers are consistent with each other and it is hard to separate who is more successful than someone else....

 

It is literally the point of this entire thread...

 

Bettor A up 4 units betting 1-unit per bet at +100 ...bettor a up 4 1-unit wagers

 

Bettor B up 20 units betting 10-units per bet at +100...bettor b up 2 10-unit wagers

 

That's all we are talking about. Bettor b has sexy numbers compared to bettor a but he only up 2 bets and bettor a is up 4 bets. Maybe bettor a bets 100 a game and bettor b bets 1000 a game...but that is a different topic in itself

 

Unit size across different sports is an entirely different discussion.

 

Great topic and very interesting for sure.

 

Good call on the stock market buddy. Funny I just bumped the thread in the box we had some decent insight.

 
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Posted: #60

@Raiders22

 Of course, it is their job as a glorified salesman/woman

 

The point of this thread is that it has  trickled into the every day capper world as other cappers have tried to compare themselves to these "pros"

 

And that makes it hard for the OP to know if the guy up 100 units is actually doing better than the guy up 15 units

 
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Posted: #61

Quote Originally Posted by dubz4dummyz:

@Raiders22  Of course, it is their job as a glorified salesman/woman   The point of this thread is that it has  trickled into the every day capper world as other cappers have tried to compare themselves to these "pros"   And that makes it hard for the OP to know if the guy up 100 units is actually doing better than the guy up 15 units

Yessir.  I would not say it is 'their job' -- but it is a tactic they use to sell for sure.  I think their job should be to be transparent, and if they are good they will get customers; if not they will lose customers.  Then word of mouth spreads that they are scams -- and they get fewer customers than they would have.

This mindset has for sure tickled into Covers.  So, it does make it harder for a newer person to tell who is really successful.  So, I still say the easiest thing os to post both record and units.  

 
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Posted: #62

@Raiders22

 Well said

 
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Posted: #63

@Raiders22

 Sorry meant it is part of their job to attract consumers

 

Great read for anyone waiting on games to start 

 
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Posted: #64

Hit my biggest bet of the year  last week drunk as a skunk i has 5 grand on Minny ml i past out when it was 33-0 (thank god) when i woke up in my lazy boy they were in OT i thought i was dreaming so the moral to the story is well nothing just drink

 
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Posted: #65

@clark17

 Moral of story = blackout drunk max bets hit at a higher rate???

an_roll_laugh

 
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Posted: #66

I’m a fan of wizer and I look at his units like 100 a piece. So a 10 unit is 1k 2 units is 200 etc 

 

don’t think it’s as hard as your making it imo

 
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Posted: #67

Quote Originally Posted by dubz4dummyz:

@kcblitzkrieg  Again, you are completely missing the point... No one is arguing any of that. If someone wants to wager larger or smaller amounts on certain sports because of whatever reason all the power to them...... We are not talking about that at all.   We are talking about a presentation of numbers that are presented differently to seem more enticing  or to appear better/superior to another bettor, or for whatever reason that individual desires...  You are talking about a completely different topic....yes lots of bettors wager more per sport they feel they know better...but again no one is arguing that

peace_5  To the point exactly.

What a person chooses to bet on any side, or total, or prop is fundamental to betting 101.  Some call it money management some call it betting strategy, whatever.  Some outcomes are just much more likely than not, so the experienced bettor can and should adjust his bet size depending on the risks.  I bet way more on some than others.  Many people do.  Maybe most!  Nothing wrong with that.  In fact I would encourage it!

Some bet just the same amount on every bet (ie. his personal standard betting unit size, maybe it's $20 for some)

Others will follow that style much of the time but swing for the fences in certain situations. That's fine!  I do it too!  If you are really confident, I say go for it and BOL!!  I just caution to be careful  and only bet what you can accept losing.

But, whether you choose to bet $20 or $2000, or label your pick as a one unit bet or a 3.5 unit bet, or label it as a ONE STAR or a FIVE STAR or a "Game of the Year", that is really only meaningful to one person.  YOU. 

That's YOUR money management or betting strategy.

But that tells us nothing about your ability to pick winners.

 I wish you well, but to the rest of any given sports forum, what amount of ca$h you claim to bet on anything could be curious fun but in practical terms is totally irrelevent.  Your decision on how much to throw down is not directly meaningful to readers, except that we hope you beat the book!!

Aside from the accepted "entertainment values" of participating on this particular social media and reading other's posts, which is normally pleasant or even fun to pull for one another!, from a practical sports-betting perspective the one thing that is really meaningful to most when they view someone else's picks is his demonstrated ability to pick more winners than losers to yield a profit.

an_light That requires a posted w/l record as part of an accuarte assessment.

Doesn't mean anyone is obligated to post a w/l.   But having it can be valuable tool to many observers.

 

(PS. I suck at picking more winners than losers in football and consider it a victory if I can just break even. My sport is college baskets.)

"@zircon, I appreciate you brother! You're a GOOD dude, anyone can see that!" -Wizerg
 
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Posted: #68

@football79an_slap

 

 

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Posted: #69

Quote Originally Posted by Raiders22:

Quote Originally Posted by dubz4dummyz: @Raiders22  The point of this thread is that it has  trickled into the every day capper world as other cappers have tried to compare themselves to these "pros"   And that makes it hard for the OP to know if the guy up 100 units is actually doing better than the guy up 15 units     This mindset has for sure tickled into Covers.  So, it does make it harder for a newer person to tell who is really successful.  So, I still say the easiest thing is to post both record and units.

 

Exactly! peace_5 Having both listed is vital to any reasonable assessment of alleged skills.

 

 

"@zircon, I appreciate you brother! You're a GOOD dude, anyone can see that!" -Wizerg
 
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Posted: #70

I thought this thread was going to be about measuring out heat and talking about it. I was sadly mistaken. I didn't read past the first few posts so if at some point it pivoted someone let me know.

TIME TO BRING BACK THE OBAMA CAGES!
 
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Posted: #71

One winning NFL bettor here posts his w/l record but refuses to show his units.
Another winning NFL bettor boasts his units but refuses to show his w/l record.

Raiders22 is spot on! Both w/l record plus units should be included for a reasonable assessment of handicapping skill in any sport.

One NFL bettor here routinely stakes huge chalk on moneylines and alternate lines, meaning each loss is far worse than the usual -1.1 unit. Same bettor hasn't listed his resultant units to his w/l record in NFL or CFB or CBB or MLB.
Those w/l records are misleading without units!

Others here who post a lot of picks list their w/l record plus resulting units.

There isn't any logical reason to resist transparency.

"@zircon, I appreciate you brother! You're a GOOD dude, anyone can see that!" -Wizerg
 
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Posted: #72

goodthread an_popcorn

 
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Posted: #73

@zircon

 Yet here YOU are posting in the CBB forum without a won/loss record and not a thing about units

https://www.covers.com/forum/college-basketball-40/friday-jan-20-cbb-103709314/1

You are a hypocrite peace_5

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Posted: #74

Quote Originally Posted by wmi799:

@zircon  Yet here YOU are posting in the CBB forum without a won/loss record and not a thing about units

https://www.covers.com/forum/college-basketball-40/friday-jan-20-cbb-103709314/1 You are a hypocrite

Your point might be fair but your manner of presentation is unwarrented.

There's a clear misunderstanding here.

I posted for many years on another forum.  CBB is my fav sport.  I am not fantastic at it, but it is my main focus as I used to play in junior college.  I choose not to bet on or post picks during non-con season because it has always been a crap shoot for me and most others. I like to wait until about 3 weeks into conference schedules in January where the games are not only more meaningful but I have common opponents to compare.  This is much more comfortable for me.  Maybe not you, but it is for me.  So I started my first ever thread on the CBB forum and posted my first picks on this site, today.  These games haven't started yet.   That's why I don't list a w/l with units.  

No hypocrisy.

Whether I win or lose,  I wish  YOU  good fortunes with your bets. peace_5 

 

 

"@zircon, I appreciate you brother! You're a GOOD dude, anyone can see that!" -Wizerg
 
 
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Posted: #75

@zircon

 Lol. You talk about transparency? I guess you could have been forthright and said that in your CBB thread. Another thing you preach that you chose not to do

Maybe stop preaching so muchpeace_5

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