Posted:
#1
2015 NFL: 5-1; 17-9 in last 26.
I wanted to do a straight up pick along with the ML parlay which I don't see losing in any way/shape/form.
Many posters here, even the very good ones, don't believe in line movements, or consensus helping a capper, or the fact that there can be huge public money on one side and Vegas won't move off a number significantly to offset that and that a capper can use that info.
I respectfully tell you not to listen to them. You can pay attention to consensus information and how money moves as a shorthand to make bets. Don't believe me? Tell Bob Scucci who Director of Boyd Gaming and says these things happen every week on the Behind the Bets podcast. If I'm a liar or clueless, then so is he and good luck telling an actual line-setter in Vegas who handles the cash flow he is clueless.
Anyhow, the fact that Vegas' worst week came last week can help us this week. All the afternoon favorites cashed last week and Vegas got blasted with parlay money and teaser money setting up a monster loss.
You can be assured they won't make the same mistake two weeks in a row.
You can be assured they won't make the same mistake two weeks in a row.
That is why the right dogs this week can be played as their numbers are inflated. Squares love favorites, plain and simple. That is why so many good cappers here consistently post dogs (albeit the right dogs as just betting dogs won't always make you money as you know).
On this basis, the pick this week is Atlanta +7.
Why?
1. Vegas had it's worst week last week. Carolina has outscored ATL an unconscionable 75-3 in their past two meetings. Yet they are only getting 7 here. Well folks, 7 is a lot. The previous game in Carolina closed at 8.5. Now a mere two weeks later the line is 7? And ATL still has something to play for in that they haven't officially been eliminated?
There is a 6 pt. adjustment for home to home so at best this is a 2/3 pt line and at worst this is a 4/5/6 pt line.
Yet we get 7. Lots of line value there especially given that ATL has that loss fresh in their heads and will make something in the way of adjustments to make this game closer.
2. The old cliché: This is ATL's Super Bowl.
And it is. Not only can ATL still make the playoffs (although it is a microscopic chance) they have a chance to ruin their division rivals perfect season.
That's a TON of motivation, even though ATL has many, many flaws which I need not document here. It has been a rough season for ATL to say the least.
But folks, you can't play much worst than the 38-0 loss they had against CAR last time out. So the score will be closer and there is a change from home to road.
Amazingly, Carolina couldn't cover with a 35-7 lead last week on the road.
They couldn't cover against the Saints before that on the road.
They covered against Dallas on Thansgiving but remember, Carolina was being disrespected in that spot opening as 1 point DOGS even with a perfect record. Lots of motivation for a statement game there and they delivered in a big way on national TV and knocked Romo out in the process. Luckily this is a game with little attention (outside of the perfect record chase) at 1 pm in ATL. No Monday night or Sunday night lights to ramp up the play.
Also, the latest 16 minutes of Carolina football have been the worst football they have played all year and it may be, minus the FG to win it, the worst quarter 15 minutes of football any team has played all year. 28 points in 15 minutes against an NFL team. Not Tulsa....an NFL team. To me, the Panthers looked completely mortal against a bad Giants team that couldn't stop scoring against a top ranked D.
Will that carry over this week? I don't know. I do know we get tons of line value and this is Carolina's third road game in 4 weeks, ramping up the travel/fatigue factor (always a good reason to back a home dog).
3. Finally, some of the local ATL media said the Falcons quit against Carolina. That is always a reason to come out strong with players who put personal pride highest among all their virtues (vices?).
And better, they get redemption only two weeks later.
4. And even better yet, as mentioned previously, the Falcons have not been eliminated from the playoffs.
Here is how they get in:
Seattle loses twice
Vikings lose twice
Other things that I don't need to get into
This is a 1 pm EST game. Seattle plays at 4 pm and the Vikes play at 8 pm.
So even though the Falcons know deep down they won't make the playoffs they still have a very very small shot and only need look at the field, not up at the scoreboard too as those other games are later.
You can wait for a better line if you don't like the juice but 7 is too strong a number to pass up in this spot. This number is juiced -115 to -130 on various sites.
The pick:
Atlanta+7 (juiced) over Carolina
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