Vikings and Packers discussion

One of the best games of week 4.

The NFC North is 8-4 where the Bears are responsible for 50% of the division's losses. The NFC North's point differential is +77. Needless to say, every divisional game in the north will be important from here on out.

Let's start with coaching. 

Kevin O'Connell is getting a lot of praise, and rightfully so. He comes from Sean McVay's system, who came from the Shanahan tree.

Lafluer also comes from the Shanahan tree. He was McVay's OC in 2017 with the Rams.

There is a lot of familiarity here, and both guys have a good pedigree in coaching.

I'll let you all discuss what you want to about this game. Any info brought to the table is good info.

I just want to leave you with one thought before opening it up, and it's about Jordan Love. First of all, the opening line tells us that Jordan Love is starting. You can't convince me otherwise, but I guess it can be up for debate. 

When Love got hurt on the last play in week 1, the Packers were 2.5 dogs at home to the Colts with Malik Willis in week 2. In week 3 they were 3 point dogs at Tennessee, with Willis under center.

Now the Vikings are 3-0, and by most metrics and rankings, they ARE the better team. Lambeau is a tough place to play, so maybe a tic better HFA than other venues. The books opened it GB -3(it's moved to 2.5 since). There's no chance that's a Malik Willis line, despite him playing so surprisingly well.

And that leads me to a thought. Could Jordan Love playing in this game actually be detrimental for the Packers? He's coming off a sprained mcl. He will not be too mobile, and definitely not nearly as mobile as Willis. Malik Willis has 114 yards on 12 attempts, with 1 td and 5 first downs.

Why could this matter?

The Vikings are the #1 defense per dvoa. They lead the league with 5.3 sacks per game. They are tied at #2(with Pitt) in rushing yards allowed per game at 71.53. And it's not like they weren't tested, facing the Niners in week 2, and the Texans in week 3.

I think that's the most important aspect of this game. Can the Packers o line protect Love? And would it be a not so crazy idea to let Malik Willis start this game, as he has a hot hand, and the legs to evade pressure?

I’m leaning Viking on this one. Their defense might be the best NFC.

The only thing stopping me from already hitting the Vikings here…..

Is I’ve been riding them all season……

Whenever I ride a hot hand and it’s getting to 3-4-5 weeks in a row….im always leery.  

I love the pack and how they coach themselves through hard times.   How they can change their gameplan any given week to success…….but right now with love banged up and possibly playing a little gunshy…..can’t see how Vikings don’t grind them out here.   And getting points!! 

Even if their QB ends up hobbled or out.   I think Nick mullens can step in and throw for 350 yards.  Hopefully without his 2-3 bad turnovers….

What’s up Sac man?   Hope you’re doing well! 

Flores has been doing a number on Shanahan and his disciples for a while. Last week, Houston's Offensive Coordinator, Bobby Slowik, who is also of that tree, got schooled in the Flores defense. A week after Shanahan's offense, for the second time in less than a year, failed to pass the Flores test. 

Last year Flores put it on Lafleur in their first meeting, holding the Packers to 10 points. In the second meeting, Lafleur got the better of Flores and his defense, who by that point, had worn down and were decimated with injuries partially because of a struggling offense that was cycling through quarterbacks and couldn't stay on the field to give them a rest.

A second difference between the two games is the maturation of Love and the Packers offense, who struggled for the early part of last year but found "it" later in the season. 

This year it's a defense that the Vikings reinforced with offseason acquisitions who better fit Flores's philosophy and scheme. So far, it looks like it's a major success. And a hated division rival with a gimpy, rusty, possibly gun-shy Love or a lesser quarterback in Malik Willis surely seems to be a prime spot for the Viking defense to shine once again.

The Packers' defense, which is taking the ball away at a high rate with seven interceptions in three games, could shine as well against Darnold, who has been playing well, but has a well-documented history of throwing to the wrong team and has a bruised knee himself.     

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/41401359/vikings-qb-sam-darnold-no-structural-damage-knee

All is well my friend 

Hope you as well

@undermysa

GB leads the league in rushing 205 ypg. 
the oline has been great. Like Darnold, Willis is another QB getting another shot with good coaching and line play.  I kind of agree with you, Willis brings something more to table.  He actually threw it well last week.  Probably not a bad idea to let Love get 100% and ride the hot hand.  It should be a great game and I can see both teams make a deep postseason run.  

I lean under with both teams relying on the run game and avoiding the pass rush on both sides.  

I thank everyone for their responses so far. And I agree with you, everything feels like an under in this one.

Interesting that these two teams have alternated wins / losses both SU and ATS since KOC and Lafluer started matching up in 2022.  Vikes turn this time around if it continues.  

That is an interesting trend. I hope you are right. The Pack Attacks late in the season (perhaps with the division on the line) behind Love's return. BOL!

@undermysac

 Enjoyed your takes and thought process on this one.  It should be the game of the week. 

I'm a Packers fan and bleed green and gold, but I'm not touching this game from a betting standpoint. I don't like the Packers in this spot, and still question the defense, although it is very opportunistic. As much as it pains me to say it, my numbers point to the Vikings winning this game, and I hate the sorry ass Vikings almost as much as the Bad News Chicago Bears. 

Best of luck to you whatever you decide to do. 

The Vikings Friday practice report is out. Only Ivan Pace Jr will miss the GB game. He also missed last week vs Houston. 

The Vikings are healthy as can be.

Waiting on the Packers report.

Just saw nfl network announcement love to be a game time decision 

Vikings have led in all three games in the majority of the three games that they have played.  The Packers havent played anyone of worth, except for their first game loss vs the Eagles in Brazil.  If Love starts, which is likely, then that will open up the passing game.  The Packers are running the ball at will, but against sub par teams.  Reed is a little banged up and Gilmore should cancel him out.  If Willis starts then it will it will be a tougher day at the office for GB.  Flores' defense disguises their pre-snap coverage and that can be a problem for Willis.  Vikings offense has been efficient, even without Addison (who should play) and Hock.  Aaron Jones will have some extra juice Sunday as he probably would like nothing more to make a Lambeau leap and seal the game. 

Vikings are the better team and I think that the KOC/Flores combo will be too much to handle for GB, even at home.  

The Packers could be thin at corner back. Jaire Alexander didn't practice and is questionable. Backup CB Carrington Valentine didn't practice and is doubtful. 

And ofcourse we know Jordan Love is questionable, possibly a game time decision. 

Full disclosure, I bet the Vikings ML+125 on Wednesday. I'm not in love with the bet by no means. It's a public road dog, divisional game at Lambeau, and the Vikings are 3-0.

But as I stated with the OP, it's a Jordan Love line. If he ends up not playing, damn sure this line flips to Minny -2 or so. In that case I will bet the Packers ML + whatever it is, and just enjoy the game.

If he plays, I'll ride the Vikings original bet and make him prove to me that he's mobile enough to be effective. 

@MDAAKD

"Vikings have led in all three games in the majority of the three games that they have played"

On the opposite end of that spectrum, did you know that the Dolphins have not played with a lead, at any point in this season yet?

Not sure how a packer backer can hate da bears?     Isn’t that like a Harlem Globetrotters fan hating the Washington Generals?   

I do agree, I’m probably laying off this game, but lean packers.   MINNY has been playing at a high level for three straight games, and due for a letdown.

The Packers will find that Malik Willis is a better QB than Jordan Love 

Life long Bears fan, and this is so true