week 1 angles/plays

I use a 30 year database as a basis of my decision making.  I will rarely play a team, especially an underdog, that has more than 50% of the public on them in the King of Covers contest, which I feel ups my winning percentage about 5% over the course of a season.  The public over the long haul loses, right?

I am not in business of converting you....if you resonate with my methodology, all well and good, and if you think it's crap, than fade if you wish.....differing opinions are what makes a market.....we all know that when everyone agrees on a side that the results are often disastrous. 

I provide the query text for you to plug into the killersports or gimmethedog databases if you wish to tweak or verify my information....no worries.

Away underdogs of less than 7 points seem to cover more than bigger dogs over the course of years.

Angles....

a)  A week 1 away dog of less than 7 points that won 4, 5 or 6 games last season......49-16-6 ATS (+5.0), 30-41 straight up (+0.7)......if their present opponent will be an underdog their next game, this moves to 38-7-6 ATS (+7.0), 24-27 SU (+2.9).......ON Cardinals, Titans, Commanders

Query text.....AD and 3<PRSW<7 and AD and line<7 and on:D and game number=1

Plays:

1)  Commanders +3-,-115 (+3.5)...1 unit

2)  Titans +4-..............................1 unit

I see your paste of the query did not work, I tried 5 times using different methods...none of them worked

COVERS needs to fix it.

How did you fix it?

I have had the same issue and as you.....I highlighted "query text", but not the actual query itself.....it worked, which was either a fluke or the magic solution, we'll have to see going forward....lol....

As enjoy your posts. Thank you for sharing and good luck this year. 

Good to see you back agent 99 …. I absolutely look in …. Appreciate your efforts.  

Some NCAA football angles.....

b)  An away favorite of less than 14 points in game 2 that lost at home in their first game of the season.....22-36 ATS, (-2.1) and 17-6 o/u (+8.3)......

p:HL and AF and game number=2 and line>-14

    1)  VERSUS South Alabama, VERSUS Georgia Southern

    2)  OVER Georgia Southern/Nevada and OVER South Alabama/Ohio

c)  A NCAA home dog that scores over 24 points in their game.....2311-648-56 ATS (+10.2), 78.1%, and 1432-464-32 O/U (+10.7), 75.5%

HD and points>24

d)  Georgia Southern under Helton the last two years is 4-8 straight up on the road with an average score of 27-1-35.7....as well, University of Nevada is at elevation with minimal humidity so the weather for G. Southern will be very unfamilar to them.

team=GSOU and A and season>2021 and o:division=FBS

Playing:

3)  Nevada +120.......................................1 unit

4)  Nevada/Georgia Southern OVER 55........1 unit

e)  An NCAA FB away dog of less than 13 points playing an opponent that will be an underdog their next game.....800-529-47 ATS, (+2.4), 59.3%....ON South Carolina, UTSA (if they stay an underdog), San Jose State, Tulsa, BYU (has over 62% of KOC picks on them, so filtered out), Texas Tech, if an underdog.

For away underdogs at or above +13 points this still covers at a 55.7% rate, however some price points have not been good,...around the +13 point level (Temple) and also at around +20 (Sam Houston, Troy, UMass).  I put some validity in that so stay away from those bigger dogs

Why the issue at some price points?.....we don't know why, we  go with what the database tells us, and then use our right brain to filter those games out that we feel uneasy about.

NCAA   HD and p:W and line>16 and game number=2 used killer on this.  18-12-2 60% ats  & 11-6-1 o/u 64% the dog only works part time for me.

So buddy do you remember the site and name without printing it here? I kind of miss those hour long talks. Had a computer crash lost everything, and I mean everything had to get a new one, there trying to get my stuff off the drive but it doesn't look good.

Don't forget these unders

week=1 and D and tpS(RY)> opS(RY) and H and season>2009  (UN)

week=1 and HD and n:A and nn:A and season>2002and line<5.5  (UN)

week=1 and HD and season>2011 and DIV and line>1 and total<49 (IND 80+%) You can stop at DIV on this one.

week=1 and D and surface = grass and season>=2014  (62%)

Hey!.....my phone from LV doesn't work since I've moved.  I'll see if I can still get your contact details off of it and give you a call and we'll connect....my new phone plan allows something like 400 free minutes to the USA every month. 

Tough about your computer...that would've been at least a thousand or so hours of work for you down the drain! 

I'll take a look at your queries.

This one is nice.....week=1 and D and tpS(RY)> opS(RY) and H and season>2009

Only issue is I wonder how many passes Minny and NYG qbs are gonna throw to the wrong team.

You might convince me with your queries to take the Colts.....a dog week 1 that outrushes their opponent has gone 158-54-6 (+7.2), 74.5%, including 53-18 ATS at home, 25-46-1 o/u (-3.5), 44-27 straight up (+4.4).....only issue is that a running quarterback covers the line with much more frequency on the road than at home.

@Indigo999

 Thanks for sharing bol this season

Appreciate yr work!..ty!..and GL this yr!

I9 and JC, I am pretty sure "PRSW" has not been enabled for GTD.

That is correct.....have to use tpS(W) (t=team, pS=previous season, W=wins) instead, but those wins can also include  playoffs wins.

The bad

team=Colts and week=1 and season>=2015   (0-8-1)

HD and DIV and week=1 and opS(playoffs)>1 and tpS(playoffs)=0

In fav of HD...(11-3)

f)  A home favorite of less than 7 points before week 8 whose next game is on Thursday....15-47 ATS (-4.7), 27-36 straight up (-1.2).....VERSUS Bills, VERSUS Dolphins

Query text (killersports)........HF and week<8 and n:day=Thursday and line>-7

Plays:

Adding....

5)  Cardinals +6'................1 unit

6)  Jaguars +3'..................1 unit

_____________________________

1)  Titans +4'....................1 unit

2)  Commanders +3'..........1 unit

3)  Nevada (NCAA) +120....1 unit

4)  Nevada (NCAA) OVER 55...1 unit

NCAA angle...

g)  This is an interesting one.....a game number 2 away dog of less than 10 points whose opponent is playing game 2.  We stipulate that our away dog didn't win last week while their present opponent lost last week....so the dog has less than or equal wins so far on the season...and both teams won less than 11 games the previous season.  The game in question happens in weeks 2 or 3....the record has been 125-80 ATS, 61% (+1.6), 92-116 winning straight up 44.2% of the time.

ON Colorado, Tulsa, SJ State, Virginia, Tex San Antonio, Michigan State, Iowa State, PIttsburgh, Arkansas, Duke....of these indicated teams Duke (62%), Pitt (58%), Arkansas (57%) and MIss St (64%) I would be filtering out.

According to killersports, the ROI on these games is 16% betting them on the pointspread....what would it have been if you had bet these on the moneyline?

The average line on these indicated teams was +5.3, which would average out to about +185 on the moneyline...we'll multiply 1.85 x .442 (the amount of times the team won straight up) and then subtract .558 to get .2597 or a 25.97% ROI....obviously the indicated method of betting these games shows the more advantageous way of betting these over time would be to play the moneyline.

"Will we?"....that is the question.

query text.....game number = 2 and AD and line<10 and t:wins - o:wins<1 and o:game number=2 and tpS(W) < 11 and opS(W) < 11 and  week=2, 3

Thanks.

Gl this season indi

Adding onto "g)" in post #20

h)  We'll change our line requirements slightly to between 1.5 and 13 points for our away dog....if our away dog did NOT cover their previous game, this ups our winning percentage to around 64%.

Query text .....game number = 2 and o:game number = 2 and AD and t:wins - o:wins <= 0 and 13 > line>=2 and tpS(W) < 11 and opS(W) < 11 and week = 2 and p:ats margin<0

46-26-2 (+2.6) 63.9%....24-42-2 o/u (-4.2) 36.4%.......sides and UNDERs on.....Texas Tech, Colorado, Tulsa, Temple, Michigan State, Iowa State (and Duke which I've filtered out).

Adding:

7)  Panthers (NFL) +4....1 unit

8)  Michigan State +9...1/2 unit

9)  Tulsa +7.................1/2 unit

10) San Jose State +6'...1/2 unit

11)  Texas Tech +2........1/2 unit

______________________________

1)  Commanders +3', -115.....1 unit

2)  Titans +4'...............1 unit

3)  Cardinals +6'..........1 unit

4)  Jaguars +3'............1 unit

5)  OVER 55 Nevada/G. Southern.....1 unit

6)  Nevada +120..........1 unit......BOUGHT OUT, no longer a play

Considering Iowa State, but have not pulled the trigger

Added:

12)  Temple +12'..............1 unit

13)  Ottawa (CFL) -1'.......2 units

14)  Winnipeg -2 (CFL).....2 units

may  add Edmonton after the first two CFL games go final

The college angle is thread numbers 20 and 23 requires that our play-on team did not cover the spread in game 1 to get to that 64% level.

With all the other parameters being the same, expect that our away dog covered the pointspread in game 1....those teams have still hit at a 56% rate 37-29 ATS...Miss State, Arkansas, and SJ State, though the over/under has been just 32-31.

except