Whatsup everyone! Been following some threads and decided to place my week one leans as of today. Would love to hear some feedback.
1.) Carolina vs New Orleans U 41.5 (-110)
The last 7 times these teams have played, it has gone under 7 times. Different teams, I know, but Dave Cannales has seen New Orleans from his time as Bucs OC, during that season the under hit both times.
2.) Jags team total over 21.5 (-160)
Over the 2 seasons Doug Pederson and Trevor Lawrence have been together Jacksonville has scored over 21 points 20 times, over the same stretch, Miami has given up 21 points 16 times. Miami will be without several key defenders from that stretch including Christian Wilkins who anchored the run defense, Andrew Van Ginkel who was their kind of Swiss Army knife pass rusher and Bradley Chubb is starting the season on the PUP
3.) Cincinnati over 13.5 1st half points (+100)
The Bengals, scored over 14 points 7 times last season in the first half. Going against a new look patriots team that is without Christian Barramore and Matthew Judon, this screams Bengals being up 17-6 type game at the half. Burrow a year removed from the injury concerns, Zack Moss replacing Joe Mixon averaged 111.25 yards rushing when he was the main ball carrier for the colts last season.
4.) Eagles ML (-145)
The Eagles with Nick Siriani as head coach are 2-0 in week one games. Elements are a little different, but going up against Green Bay, who overachieved a bit last year (3-3 record with Jordan Love as a starter vs teams with a winning record) while the Eagles were 6-2 last season vs teams with a winning record in the regular season. Adding Saquan gives them an added element that D’andre Swift does not have. Eagles 31-Packers 20
5.) Broncos (+5.5)
Sean Payton has a 5-1 career record vs Seattle. I’m taking into account that Seattle does have a rookie head coach, along with uncertainty at the starting QB spot with Geno Smith, who has regressed a bit since his breakout year 2 seasons ago.
6.) Dallas ML (+115)
it always worries me leaning Dallas, however them getting plus money vs a Cleveland team, that does not have Nick Chubb and Deshaun Watson is still their QB. Dallas questionable oline, however Mike McCarthy has a 10-7 week 1 record, while Kevin Stefanski is 2-2 in week ones.
Any and all feedback is appreciated. Best of luck this season