Week 1 NFL Football ***SUPER PICKS*** (Discussion + Picks)

2023 Record: 0-0 (+$0.00)

Carolina-Atlanta 'Over' 39.5 ($1100 to win $1000)

What's up with this line anyways? I guess most people are expecting two young NFL Quarterbacks to pretty much fail in their season (and career) debuts but I don't see it that way. I think it has to be the weather because they are calling for rain throughout most of this game but again this favors the running games and Atlanta is about to start the Bijan Robinson era and there is a good chance they run for 200+ yards in this one with the backs they have access too. We are also here for the debut of #1 pick and QB Bryce Young. I know the record (spread and ML wise) speak for themselves when it comes to the #1 pick overall making their NFL Debut but I am going to stay away from that and just hope Young can find a way to impress and put up some points when playing down. This number is a tad too low.

I think this game is in Atlanta in a dome. No weather issues 

Defense's will slow both offenses

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Houston-Baltimore 'Over' 43.5 ($1100 to win $1000)

Give me the OVER with the new guys (Young and Stroud). Not so much because of what they are going to do offensively but maybe because of some of the mistakes they are going to make. Lamar Jackson is back, he has a new contract and I think he's looking to do some damage in his first game with all eyes on the pre-season MVP candidate. Houston was dead last against the run in 2022 and I don't think much has changed on the defensive side of things that would suggest they can stop the Ravens today. I want to bet on Baltimore here but I just don't trust the easy approach of fading both Young and Stroud in the first week. I prefer to think Houston is going to be giving Baltimore short field position this entire game and the Ravens alone could come close to covering this total. I'll take the OVER.

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Cleveland Browns +1.5 ($1100 to win $1000)

The Browns are winning this game and if they don't they will at least cover by losing on a last second FG or maybe scoring a last second touchdown and coming within a point. Nonetheless they are covering this spread. We know Cincinnati QB Joe Burrow is playing for sure in this one but his actual status has been uncertain for weeks now and how healthy is the guy? We're about to find out. The general public has written off Browns QB Deshaun Watson but Watson is another year into his return and I think we see a much more comfortable player with the weapons he has around him. The Browns to me just look better on both sides of the ball right now with so many questions marks surrounding Burrow and company. The Bengals were near perfect on the spread last season and that will sucker enough bettors into taking them in the opener here. Browns at home win this game.

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Jacksonville-Indianapolis 'Over' 46 ($1100 to win $1000)

Another OVER for this mf in the first week of the season. Everyone is writing off the Indianapolis Colts but why? Sure Jacksonville have dawgs on both sides of the ball and sure they are supposed to win this game by 30 according to most cappers but if we are keeping it real I wouldn't feel too comfortable being on the same side as 80% of the betting public. Colts QB Anthony Richardson is making his big debut in this game and despite some bright flashes of success I think we also see some colossal mistakes that turn into the Jaguars having short field position on quite a few occasions and maybe even a few defensive scores. Having said that the Colts will find a way to score some points even if it's late in the game and this could be a wild shootout that sees 60+ points. I'm going with a lot of OVERS on this rookie QB debuts just because.

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New Orleans Saints -3 ($1100 to win $1000)

Give me some of that Derek Carr money baby. Yes sir he is making his debut with the New Orleans Saints in front of the crazy Bayou fans and this place should be electric for a new and exciting era. The Tennessee Titans are bit of a disaster and don't really have any direction. The Titans had the worst pass defense in the NFL one season ago and apparently they've made some changes and brought in some guys but that takes a bit longer to put together than it does an established QB taking over a new team like Carr is doing. Saints running game is a big questions mark but I think a lot of people forget how effective RB Jamaal Williams was in Detroit last year and he can carry the load until Kamara is back. Not a big fan of either team and this could be a close one but I'll take Derek Carr late in the game over just about anyone else which is scary but profitable. Saints win and cover.

@Greta

 Yeah my bad was just thinking out loud for the overnight points drop. It's way too early here. Nonetheless give me that mf OVER.

@Greta

 Yeah my bad was just thinking out loud for the overnight points drop. It's way too early here. Nonetheless give me that mf OVER.

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Las Vegas-Denver 'Over' 43 ($1100 to win $1000)

What's crazy is these two teams were notorious for UNDER winners last year but no chance I am going under with the thought of Sean Payton and this supposed new "hardcore" approach with Russ Wilson. All you keep hearing is that Russ is being treated like he's never been treated before by a Head Coach but my take on that is that maybe we see the most focused version of Russ since his days in Seattle with big Pete. Jimmy G is on the other side and I think he's a sneak pick for surprise QB of the day against this Denver defense. The only reason this total is so low is because the Broncos had the lowest scoring offense in the NFL one season ago but a lot has changed and I think they put up some points in this Home and Season opener. Two offenses that can move the chains at altitude gimme the points fest.

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Miami-LA Chargers 'Over' 51 ($1100 to win $1000)

You can probably tell my approach with the NFL this season is we are going to see points galore and have one of the highest scoring opening weeks in history of the league. Okay maybe not but a lot of these games are going to be all out shootouts. Both these teams can score 30+ in every game this season and the Dolphins defense to me remains super suspect. Think of the offensive fire power in this one and is there any chance this game doesn't come down to the final drive and someone wins 38-31? Nah man. Tua has all the weapons in the world and Justin Herbert also has all the weapons in the world. This will also be the kind of game where both coaches for for it on 4th down to extend drives knowing their defense can't do much to stop the opponents and I'll take a shootout for the money here.

GL today & this  season@TheReelPhilD

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LA Rams-Seattle 'Over' 46 ($1100 to win $1000)

Another OVER to end the Morning-Afternoon slate for your truly and I hope we see some points here too. Not sure if you all remember this Seattle defense but they could not stop the run for their lives a year ago and Cam Akers is ready to run wild in this one until Stafford can get used to all these random receivers he's going to be throwing the ball to all game. Seattle should be scoring touchdowns or at least points on every single drive as they bring back an experienced offense under Geno Smith this season. He has weapons in the air and on the ground and should have him way even with 99 on the other side of the field. I think the Seahawks are going to be relentless on the offensive side of things and even Cooper Kupp out on the other side we are talking about guys who have been here and done that in the past and Stafford is going to have a few touchdown passes. Hoping for another opening week shootout.

Overs for everyone

Gl today 

Lots of over 

like No 

@TheReelPhilD

 Atlanta/Carolina total is definitely enticing. A lot of weapons on both offenses. Bryce seemed lost in the off-season compared to other rookie QBs. I agree with you they will come out strong. And your point about mistakes is so true. One pick six and the total goes over.

terrible start

Good work Phil.. was wondering if you will have a pick on the bills/jets game tonight?