Week 10 winners.

In college this weekend, had Indiana +7.5 and I thought they deserved to win straight up. Not that anything crazy happened, or even that the #7 team in the country was awful; just thought that outside of 2-3 big plays, a couple bad breaks, and a couple bad calls from the refs....Indiana should have at least covered. Michigan State. Go up 12 very late in the 4th and just flat out collapsed(with help from a really bad call by the refs on the last play of the game). The Steelers. 600 yards and 38 points and they don't cover? 14 point lead late in the 4th blown? Antonio Brown breaks free for a TD late and gets run down at the 15 by an old man? Williams busts a 15 yard run on the last play of the game and instead of barreling into the EZ, he ducks contact and lamely reached the ball out(coming up 6 inches short). Just a horrible way to lose. Hats off to Oakland though. Those kids are building up what looks to be a nice squad for the future. Jax dominate the jets and lose(i didn't post it, but I threw 1/4 unit on the ML). Tampa Bay I thought deserved to win, and I think they do win if Mike Evans doesn't drop EIGHT balls(3-4 of them game changing kind of drops). 

I always say things even out to people when they are in a run of bad luck, so the Eagles TD in OT was a nice surprise, but it seems like the bad break/backdoor for me ratio is still 4 to 1. 

Ok, enough crying from me. 

My giveaway/takeaway system is in its last week before I put it away until week 4/5 next year. I want to say it's 4-0 so far this year along with 3-0 for "fringe" plays that are really close to being official(didn't bet them but took notice). This week it's given me Detroit +11.5. 99% of the time I roll with my system as its been winning for me for half a decade, and because of what it is, it's BUILT to give out plays that look really ugly. This week though.....I think there's some X-factors that are gonna keep me away. I will update by kickoff what I do, but for now I'm gonna pass. On one side, GB started the season 6-0. The media was ready to crown them the NFC champs a few weeks ago, but I think any real capper with a good eye could see their defense is a problem, and that offense ESPECIALLY on the road.....not exactly firing on all cylinders. So when the pack go on the road and straight up get embarrassed two weeks in a row,, and now are coming home....not a team I want to fade. I haven't gotten to watch the GB/Car game yet, but the way it broke down and no matter how close they did make it, I gotta think it was a kind of game they did all that box score damage after the game was way out of control. And then it just so happened that they really made it close with a few garbage scores, a few breaks, and momentum. So IMO, two road games. Embarrassing showings two weeks in a row. Then coming home....don't want to fade the pack. Then Detroit....how they are imploding and all their dirty laundry being aired....just not a game I want to F with at the moment. 

A "fringe" game....Tennessee was one giveaway in 9 weeks from being an official "system" play. I was thinking that if I nix DET, I might take a shot with the Titans...but there's something I hate about this game. I penciled the line at -7 Monday morning, and right now the Titans aww only catching 4. That number doesn't do anything for me. Outside of having TB -2.5, and Dallas opening up as favorites, this Temnessee game was the only game out of 13 games that "my" lines were more than a point off the opening lines with my book. Just seems like a game I don't want to mess with. But again, I'm not really feeling this card and I might wind up playing Temnessee and I'll post what I do before kickoff. 

Outside of that, looking at the BILLS, but I lost out on +3 so that's soured me. There's a part of me in my gut that thinks jets, but it's not a strong feeling. Everything else is pointing to Buffalo. One angle that I like and in the pros it's fairly hard to come by because so much can change in 3-4 weeks....but common opponent(Jax). If buffalo played them in week 2...means nothing that jets played them week 9. But since they played just 2 weeks apart.....I thought buffalo really beat the crap out of Jax. Yea Jax won that game outright,  but there was some crazy stuff that happened early on that made the game 27-3 Jax in the first half. The other 35-40 minutes were just an absolute romp of Jax and it wasn't a case of Jax playing soft with a lead IMO. Buffalo just outplayed them every which way. Meanwhile the Jets two days ago....I thought Jacksonville absolutely dominated them. On the flip side of things, yes the Jets won and actually had DD leads in both the 1st and 4th quarters, but IMHO, Jacksobville absolutely dominated that game. 

So that has me leaning Buffalo even though these short week TNF games....I don't really like taking road teams. I think they are gonna run all over the Jets and if they came out of last week healthy, I'm probably gonna go against my gut and take a shot. 

Sorry for babbling! I'll be back as the week progresses with plays and some insight. 

And as I popped out the week 10 schedule Monday morning at work to set my opening lines.....I see they are on the road going against the Giants. Could this be the "decent team" that comes out and slaps them silly? I was thinking more of a team with an aggressive defense who can pressure Brady, and that's probably NOT the Giants, but IDK. Spagnoulo has done magic in the past against ol Tom and Bill. The Giants offense while inconsistent at times, has looked really good for the most part. Would love to see this line creep to +9 and it is looking like a play and I'll probably throw a 1/4 or 1/2 unit on the ML. 

The awful Browns. Extra rest. Hopefully McCown is back.....why can't they beat the Steelers who I believe are missing Big Ben? I set my line at -4.5 without Ben and -10 with Ben. It's -4.5 with my book right now, so I'm assuming no Ben. 

I have a feeling this is gonna be a week like three weeks ago. A LOT of dogs gonna be barking. 

Carolina and pats

Pdouble, Panthers will lose when they finally get some respect. Some positive articles this week, but more garbage about Cam taking down a GB banner and the fan calls the cops. Try that in philly and see what happens to you. Never really had strong opinion on the guy. But he's getting it done with no name receivers. 

Hey Pick.....I'm not much of a trends guy, but sh1t, if numbers like that are backing up two of my possible plays....can't hurt. GL this week, bro. 

GL with your pats play. Hopefully u caught them at -7, I can nab them +8.5, and pats win 24-16. 

Thanks Mr K. Looking forward to your card this week. You're due for a big big week

Thanks man. GL to you too. 

BOL this week 

Rob, good luck man. I like a couple, might be against u on a couple. 

Yea man, Nickel. I have a feeling that +2.5 is the best we will see, so took a peek at ML before it plummeted. +118. No thanks. I snooze, I lose. I'm hoping maybe one of the bigger syndicates make Jets a play or one of the touts like Lang or whoever is "in" this season. Pop it back up to 3 or maybe even 3.5. I doubt it though. I'm guessing the closing line will be Jets -1 and - money on both sides for ML. 

Thanks Altablock. I don't comment much in your threads, but you are one of maybe a dozen guys that I ALWAYS look for your threads to see what you have up your sleeve. Keep banging them, bro, I like your style. 

Dogbite, as all the value of Buffalo has been sucked dry, a teaser might be the exact thing needed to breathe some life into that game. I'm with you in I rarely play teasers, but maybe 3-4 times a year I'll hop on one. Thing is, like bigger ML plays....I try to keep my ML or teaser plays to home team only. I don't have any evidence or facts to back this up, but I just believe that when I'm in a situation of getting a few extra points in my favor to beat the line, I think there's a much greater chance of that blowout happening when you're on the road with the crowd against you; much bigger chance of your QB making that dreaded mistake(pk6/fumble 6) when 70k people are screaming and distracting you. For all I know, blowouts are 50/50, but it just seems to me that even in this case of Jets/Buffalo a huge rivalry game.....most likely regardless of which team is better, the game will be close, but IF there's a blowout, my odds are on the home team to put up the crooked numbers.  GL if you wind up playing Buff +8/9! 

Appreciate the support, everyone. I know I don't nearly bring insight like I used to back in the day before my job blocked Covers on my work PC, and when I had more time in my social life to just geek out and write books about games breaking down every possible stat/angle/situational/motivational thing that comes to mind.....but I try to put in some work to give back to the forum when I can(day like today; off from work, family all not home, high as a kite just RELAXING and rotating from Tomb Raider, NFL replays from last Sunday, the new Batman comic, East of Eden book(absolute classic novel), Skype with my step-daughter and her baby who recently moved to Indiana, my DVR(Fargo and Leftover both insane shows), naps, and surfing the Internet. 

There's a ton of guys who just leave their plays, and if they are solid, they are solid, and that's appreciated. Any extra help in making money works for me, but it's the guys who bring insight and encourage discussion in their threads without being desperate for attention and promoting a goddamn circus in the process....THOSE are the guys I circle to and those few carry this entire forum IMO. I would name the guys I respect, but I don't want to leave off anyone by mistake. You guys know who you are, and that's the reason I take the time to post here every week during football season. To give back what I GET from this forum. 

I always say it. I came into this forum in 2005 a know it all and jerk(what else is the Internet for?) And while I saw a lot of ignorance and STILL see the same nonsense today just with different names and multiple account guys....I learned a fuc5ing lot from some of the old timers who knew a LOT more than my 25 year old a$$. Those guys helped me craft something I was naturally good at(i was born into a gambling family, was running intricate NFL yearly pools by 8th grade, was taking action by 10th grade and did that until 2013), so the serious veterans on here that were about making money.....I learned from them so I try to give back. I'm no mastermind handicapper, but any given year I'm hovering between 54-60% if you have followed me since 2005. I'm not naturally an attention seeking guy or a braggart(I feel douchey typing this paragraph as it is), but I am super confident, so I always sort of latched onto other guys. Early days, I ran with a cool crew who wound up splitting up and going tout and wasn't my thing. I helped them on their website one season being an "expert" picker and between winning an early contest and never getting paid my prize, and then getting my ball busted because I was on vacation and didn't make my plays one week....I just walked away from it. Cool dudes,  no hard feelings. Haven't seen any of them in ages unless they have new names here on covers. Wish em the best. 

After that, I latched onto Andarmac99. Dude was a BOSS and I was grateful to be a regular in his threads. I actually found a couple of his threads from playoffs 2009 and 2010 and bumped it last year for a laugh. It had something like 30k views, 288 replies, ZERO filler, and not one jerk in the mix talking trash. Not one di$khad in the entire bunch. One of them we nailed Seattle +10 and money line when they upset the Saints at home(lynch's insane run game). Another one we were all over the Jets + a lot and ML in another playoff game as they walloped the Pats. I think one of them was in the midst of GB's run to the super bowl and killed it the night game they beat up the 1 seed Atlanta. Then Andarmac disappeared although he pops up once or twice a year and crushes it. 

After that, kind of been floating around in limbo, I'm not an attention seeking guy so I'm mostly under the radar, not big on bumping my threads on a great week, not big on the popular "games are fixed theory" on weeks I take a beating. If I go back and forth with someone on s game and I win, I'm saying "I told you so." No conspiracies, no keeping a record(look me up, I do the same thing the last 10 years, nothing crazy, no locks, nothing sexy in any way, but marathon style slow grind consistent betting with a winning record. Some years better than others. 2007 was a grind. 2010 was plus exactly ONE unit after 17 weeks of football, but went on a crazy run in bowl games and playoffs en route to one of my hottest runs in my life. 2012 had a losing season and actually took weeks 8-17 off before rebounding just enough in the playoffs and bowl games to say I got in the plus). 

..but my point in all this. There's a few guys in this zoo that make the forum worth perusing. Not only is this site amazing just in looking at the matchup box when I want to break down stats and be able to see all the pertinent info in ONE neat spot, but some of the good guys in the forum....I like to take what they give me(info info info insight insight insight), and return the favor and my little way of contributing is my weekly threads. 

Jesus Christ, I have douche chills, literal chills up my arms looking back and reading me talk about myself for 4 paragraphs. I really hope this doesn't come off to everyone like I'm bragging or saying I'm the best capper on earth, because im not....I'm just a little ahead of the curve from EXPERIENCE. 

Now that everyone knows my life story; GL on any plays this weekend, and I'll be back hopefully with some insight on my plays as I make them. Back to Rise of the Tomb Raider! 

Yes sir! 

Giants ML looking more and more tasty. Thinking of splitting my bet 3/4 unit +7.5(hopefully higher) and then 1/4 unit at maybe +325 or so(haven't checked the ML yet, but 300 sounds right, maybe trickles up 25 cents if the line creeps to 8-8.5). Liking it more and more each minute that goes by. 

I always make it a point to read your thread Glyde. You're one of the good guys and I always appreciate anyone who gives their pick and then gives their thought process as to why their pick makes sense. 

BOL this week Glyde.