Week 11 thoughts

Lions hangover updated record

1-6 SU

0-7 ATS

Rams +1 lose to Cards 41-10

Bucs -6 lose to Broncos 26-7

Cards -3’ lose to Commandos 42-14

Seahawks -7 lose to Giants 29-20

Cowboys +5’ lose to 49ers 30-24 (after bye)

Vikes -3 lose to Rams 30-20

Titans -3’ vs Patriots win 20-17

Packers -5’ at Bears ??? (after bye)

Texans -7’ at Cowboys ???

Whatever the negative impact of playing the Lions may have on a team, it’s certainly less of an issue after two weeks, so other factors would seem to take precedence in the Packers game.   While they’ve dominated Chicago in recent years, the Bears may rally behind their new offensive play caller to get the win, or at least the cover.    Just as the Saints with a new HC beat the Falcons last weekend, the Bears with a new OC may exceed expectations in this game.    My initial reaction was to side with the packers, but in the past couple of days I’m thinking bears might be the play here.    

Will the Texans have a letdown after snatching defeat from the jaws of victory vs the Lions?    After getting blown out in their last 2 home games, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Cowboys keep this one close.

Will the Lions hangover affect the Lions this week?    In the past 2 weeks they’ve played games requiring high intensity vs the rival Packers, then they spent a lot of energy to overcome a 16 point deficit at the Texans.    They might be a bit flat here vs the Jags, who are 2-8 but are still playing hard for their HC, and have won last 4 ATS.    

Not sure I can say the same for the Raiders.    I’m suspicious of teams who play lackluster defense.   They held the Ravens to 23 points in Baltimore but since then have allowed an average of 31 pts in their last 5 games.    Maybe they’ll give a better effort after their bye week, but the Fins TT Over still seems like the best option in this matchup.

49ers have beaten the Hawks last 6 meetings, out scoring them 184-96.    Seattle is coming off of a bye, which gave them a chance to make adjustments going forward.    I think they will have QB Smith taking more snaps under center, and try to put more emphasis on the running attack.    I like Kenneth Walker Over 13’ rush attempts -115 in this game.

Not sure what to think about KC @Bills.   I lean to the Bills here, but Chiefs have won 15 straight, and it’s best to bet into a streak, not against it.    Chiefs have held opponents under 28 points in their last 30 games, so this could be a close, low scoring game

Any thoughts welcome

Interesting angle. GL 

@Biscuit

The line tells it all, I would stay away from the Packer Bear game.

Cowboys looks like a decent play this week, with everything you said, we also have to factor in can they do anything to have a chance to win the game. Parson alone makes this defense good, lets all not forget how the Jets inhaled Stroud 2 weeks ago. Cowboys ..... well they SUCKED with DAK and SUCKS more with Cooper Rush, but with 1 week in, with that defense, it can happen. I am expecting a Dallas cover with a chance to win the game. Kind of Texas on the line for Jerry!

Mac Jones, enough said. 

Dolphins feel like they have a chance, will play to win. 1 score + victory isnt really that out of reach for the Fins.

I am feeling the SeaHawks but not enough to bet them, Geno makes some crazy decisions at times, but this is no longer that same 49ers D.

2 Great QB's will make this a must watch game! If we agree Mahomes and Allen is a wash, dont the Chief have the better team after that?

@Biscuit

 love this detail, likely using Houston in Circa Survivor and I mentioned all this to my partners.  so helpful and true.  Hoping Texans off a loss have pedigree to win