Week 12 Props n Plays

Not the best Sunday. Was only slightly down on props, but went heavy on the Bungles on SNF. I was seeing information late in the week indicating there was heavy money and ticket percentages on Cincy and started to think I was on the wrong side but I never know if you can trust those things or not so I just stuck w my handicap. Turns out the Cincy defense really is just that bad. 

So far for this week, one play immediately jumped off the page and that is :

CHI +3.5 w ML sprinkle (I dont think Minnesota has any business being a favorite on the road vs a solid division rival. I was on Bears live vs Packers and they didnt come through in the end but their offense looked way better and we know their defense is solid. This should be a 20-17 type game either way)

-Over 36 Pit/Cle looks very enticing but its typically not a good idea to play over the lowest total posted so not betting this for now.

-Over 41.5 TB/NYG looks good. Tampa can score loads of points and both defenses are bad. Is Tommy Cutlets playing? Still think they can get 20 on this Tampa defense w Tracey Jr running it and Nabers making some plays and Tampa should be able to get at least 24. Going to wait on this one.

-DAL +10 is enticing. I know they suck but its 10 pts in division and WAS off a tough beat down. Going to wait on this one depends how competitive Dallas is tonight. 

-CAR +10.5 looks disgusting enough that it could be really good. They are rested and playing chiefs off tough loss to their bitter rival in the Bills. Just cant pull the trigger yet.

-LV +5 again a gross one but should Denver be laying 5 on the road in division? Nix is still a rookie, he could make some big mistakes any time. Im going to wait on line movement as theres not much difference between 5 and 4.5 if it moves down. 

-NE +7 another division rival game. Miami is not very impressive and this Patriot team has an offense with Maye and they are scrappy. Grabbing this one before it comes down. 

I dont normally like this many sides but there are too many points being given in division games. 

So for now CHI +3.5 and NE +7

Oh I forgot to highlight I did also bet the :

TB/NYG o41.5

Looking good Yanasaur, BOL

@MP2056

Posted another thread with these plays 

David Njoku o44.5 rec yds

David Njoku TD +300

So total card so far is Njoku props plus

NE +7

CHI +3.5

TB/NYG o41.5

More to come

Good luck Yan

Good luck Yan.  

Im liking Darnell Washington on Pitt for over rec yds but I'm watching and seeing if I can get it lower. Last couple times I played it at 8.5 and its 10.5 right now. 

Added:

AJ Brown o73.5 rec yds (I dont often play the bigger name players with higher totals, but 73.5 is not a big number for Brown. I was expecting something around 82.5. Rams secondary is pretty bad, AJ can easily hit this number and I think he can find the end zone as well but its +130 and I prefer something in the +160 range. I may end up playing it, we'll see)

Just some food for thought about the Bears vs Vikings. 

The Bears will be going up against a Brian Flores led defense, with an OC calling plays in his second game as an OC, with a rookie QB.

Matt Eberflus as a D coordinator likes to blitz with his secondary. The Bears have had the highest blitz rate the last 2 years. The key in defending Sam Darnold recently is to not blitz, the tape shows it. Darnold is excellent vs the blitz. Will the Bears call off the dogs?

As a fan I hope you're right, but unfortunately I won't be holding my breath. 

@undermysac

 Some good points there. I wonder also if Chicago gets up again after that heart wrenching loss to GB. I hope they can build on the forward progress with their offense. Minnesota wasnt very impressive against Tennessee. On their second TD they got bailed out by a bad personal foul in the endzone on 4th and goal and had a fresh set of downs to work with after the titans DB made a textbook clean hit to disrupt the pass. 

This game sets up as an ugly one similar to Pitt and Baltimore last week. I hope the Bears have the sense to not blitz Darnold like you said. Unfortunately for you as a Bears fan, Bears and sense are seldom seen together.

@Yanasaur

 https://youtu.be/_EW1pSPU4ZU?si=HB6RM_-RzXrErU-r

Matt Eberflus has fucked up so many games, in so many ways, that nothing would surprise me.

Also, I just read that DeAndre Swift is probably missing this game with a groin injury.

@undermysac

 Yea eberflus is terrible. I hadnt heard about swift yet, i might have to grab roschon johnson for my fantasy team

https://www.bleachernation.com/bears/2024/11/20/eberflus-speaks-wk12/

Starting to like SF moneyline to bounce back at GB

Seems like the whole planet is on GB. SF is interesting here as a dog because they simply have the better football players. Hasn’t necessarily worked out for them this year but this is a very winnable game seeing how Jordan Love is good for 1-4 turnovers a game. If I end up with a play on this game it’s absolutely SF.