Great job on the last week, I hope that this thread made you money...
I am thinking that this is a possible 1.5 unit week, but lets see how it goes...
Review of some of the basic guidelines to teasers...
1. 4 team 13 point teaser Tie = loss -120 odds (using a bodog and 5dimes)
2. playing sides only
3. Look for lower scoring games where you get more value on the +13 points ATS
4. I will cross the zero as long as you are securing the 3 and/or 7 as these are the most important numbers...
so lets start...
SD even
although I have been burnt this season on pickem situations on more then one occasion, I like riding the usual SD late season surge...
I lost on the SD@OAK game which was a pickem situation earlier this year and similar to SD I am looking for some payback in the divisional second meeting of these teams this season...
any more ideas or suggestions?
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Great job on the last week, I hope that this thread made you money...
I am thinking that this is a possible 1.5 unit week, but lets see how it goes...
Review of some of the basic guidelines to teasers...
1. 4 team 13 point teaser Tie = loss -120 odds (using a bodog and 5dimes)
2. playing sides only
3. Look for lower scoring games where you get more value on the +13 points ATS
4. I will cross the zero as long as you are securing the 3 and/or 7 as these are the most important numbers...
so lets start...
SD even
although I have been burnt this season on pickem situations on more then one occasion, I like riding the usual SD late season surge...
I lost on the SD@OAK game which was a pickem situation earlier this year and similar to SD I am looking for some payback in the divisional second meeting of these teams this season...
Is playing sides only a hard and fast rule? Ravens/Steelers Under 53 (+13) should be included. For the last 10 meetings the total has been between 22 - 48. I haven't looked past 2006. Take into consideration the forecast for Pitts Sunday and I can't see how the Under (+13) doesn't happen.Sunday: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Sunday Night: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
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Is playing sides only a hard and fast rule? Ravens/Steelers Under 53 (+13) should be included. For the last 10 meetings the total has been between 22 - 48. I haven't looked past 2006. Take into consideration the forecast for Pitts Sunday and I can't see how the Under (+13) doesn't happen.Sunday: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Sunday Night: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Good hit last week. So much for my Colts at home + points theory.
like Eagles as usual + 4.5 at home after a loss ( half point )
Steelers + 16 should be safe enough, Ravens not running away here
Rams +10 will run at will and with that D
Bills + 18.5 Steve Johnson won't drop the pass again.
gl
IND was undefeated +13 points ATS coming into the week... What is hard about IND is that they are often favs so you have to cross the zero and dont get as much value +13 points ATS
You have a decent number if you see PHI as a SU winner... I personally think that PHI is over hyped/valued and -7 is a more logical line for the situation...
and all your pics are on my recommended +13 points ATS teams list...
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Quote Originally Posted by mischkin04:
Good hit last week. So much for my Colts at home + points theory.
like Eagles as usual + 4.5 at home after a loss ( half point )
Steelers + 16 should be safe enough, Ravens not running away here
Rams +10 will run at will and with that D
Bills + 18.5 Steve Johnson won't drop the pass again.
gl
IND was undefeated +13 points ATS coming into the week... What is hard about IND is that they are often favs so you have to cross the zero and dont get as much value +13 points ATS
You have a decent number if you see PHI as a SU winner... I personally think that PHI is over hyped/valued and -7 is a more logical line for the situation...
and all your pics are on my recommended +13 points ATS teams list...
1. Pitt +16.0 (pitt with BR is 5-0 versus Bal / should be a close game and bal does not blow out people) 2. Jets +16.5 (should be a close hard fought game IMO...) 3. SD Pk (solid in nov/dec) 4. I already took HOU / but choices other than that are Tampa +15 or Buf +18.5 or Redskins +20
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I like :
1. Pitt +16.0 (pitt with BR is 5-0 versus Bal / should be a close game and bal does not blow out people) 2. Jets +16.5 (should be a close hard fought game IMO...) 3. SD Pk (solid in nov/dec) 4. I already took HOU / but choices other than that are Tampa +15 or Buf +18.5 or Redskins +20
1. Pitt +16.0 (pitt with BR is 5-0 versus Bal / should be a close game and bal does not blow out people) 2. Jets +16.5 (should be a close hard fought game IMO...) 3. SD Pk (solid in nov/dec) 4. I already took HOU / but choices other than that are Tampa +15 or Buf +18.5 or Redskins +20
Philly, good to see you back...
PIT scares me with Big Ben's injury, but the numbers are far better with PIT then BAL but I think it is likely that both sides cover +13 points ATS...
Not sure about NYJ either, but like the PIT/BAL game this divisional second game will likely be close...
SD I like also...
Good job on HOU...
BUF is also hot +13 points ATS with wins or close loses...
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Quote Originally Posted by Phillyroom:
I like :
1. Pitt +16.0 (pitt with BR is 5-0 versus Bal / should be a close game and bal does not blow out people) 2. Jets +16.5 (should be a close hard fought game IMO...) 3. SD Pk (solid in nov/dec) 4. I already took HOU / but choices other than that are Tampa +15 or Buf +18.5 or Redskins +20
Philly, good to see you back...
PIT scares me with Big Ben's injury, but the numbers are far better with PIT then BAL but I think it is likely that both sides cover +13 points ATS...
Not sure about NYJ either, but like the PIT/BAL game this divisional second game will likely be close...
SD I like also...
Good job on HOU...
BUF is also hot +13 points ATS with wins or close loses...
Is playing sides only a hard and fast rule? Ravens/Steelers Under 53 (+13) should be included. For the last 10 meetings the total has been between 22 - 48. I haven't looked past 2006. Take into consideration the forecast for Pitts Sunday and I can't see how the Under (+13) doesn't happen.Sunday: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Sunday Night: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
thank you for the weather prediction...
I am thinking that the under would be more likely in the rain... I think in terms of effecting the passing and ability to score goes as follows...
1. Wind 2. Rain 3. Temperature
So do you know what the wind is going to be like?
30% chance precipitation meaning it is a less then 2 to1 chance of snow/rain
seems cold however...
I think the Big Ben injury is going to be of concern for PIT and might lean towards your under call
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Quote Originally Posted by Goggles-Pisano:
Is playing sides only a hard and fast rule? Ravens/Steelers Under 53 (+13) should be included. For the last 10 meetings the total has been between 22 - 48. I haven't looked past 2006. Take into consideration the forecast for Pitts Sunday and I can't see how the Under (+13) doesn't happen.Sunday: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Sunday Night: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
thank you for the weather prediction...
I am thinking that the under would be more likely in the rain... I think in terms of effecting the passing and ability to score goes as follows...
1. Wind 2. Rain 3. Temperature
So do you know what the wind is going to be like?
30% chance precipitation meaning it is a less then 2 to1 chance of snow/rain
seems cold however...
I think the Big Ben injury is going to be of concern for PIT and might lean towards your under call
I am going for my 6th 13pt teaser win in a row...I rule.
tampa +16 vs atlanta
washington +20.5 @ giants
buffalo +19.5 @ vikings
Congratulations on your run... I am glad that this angle of NFL betting is profitable for you...
I used to win on teasers and then lose on ATS bets and end up even or down... I have found that sticking with the 4 team 13 point teaser angle in the NFL will end up in more predictable results...
I am going to update my data on teams to play +13 points ATS and then take a look at your picks...
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Quote Originally Posted by Howard_Jughes:
I am going for my 6th 13pt teaser win in a row...I rule.
tampa +16 vs atlanta
washington +20.5 @ giants
buffalo +19.5 @ vikings
Congratulations on your run... I am glad that this angle of NFL betting is profitable for you...
I used to win on teasers and then lose on ATS bets and end up even or down... I have found that sticking with the 4 team 13 point teaser angle in the NFL will end up in more predictable results...
I am going to update my data on teams to play +13 points ATS and then take a look at your picks...
I am going for my 6th 13pt teaser win in a row...I rule.
tampa +16 vs atlanta
washington +20.5 @ giants
buffalo +19.5 @ vikings
dallas +20 @ indy
TB +16 is one of the hot teams +13 points ATS so this is not a bad pick in theory... I worry about the ATL offense being able to run up the score and then TB having to pass the ball and the game becoming a higher scoring game and losing value on the +13 points ATS...
WAS +20.5 is a difficult pick for me to cap, what is your thinking on this pick?
BUF is a hot team +13 points ATS and MIN has injury issues on offense which might result in a lower scoring game... this would give more value to the +13 points ATS...
BUF offensive will benefit from being indoors and conditions not effected by weather favors their passing attack... I like this pick...
DAL +20 is a pick that is a decent IND fade right now... The problem is that if things go badly this could be a manning statement game where he runs up the score... sounds weird I know, but the inexperienced injury replacement players could benefit from the live game reps going forward into the playoffs...
GL
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QUOTE Originally Posted by Howard_Jughes:
I am going for my 6th 13pt teaser win in a row...I rule.
tampa +16 vs atlanta
washington +20.5 @ giants
buffalo +19.5 @ vikings
dallas +20 @ indy
TB +16 is one of the hot teams +13 points ATS so this is not a bad pick in theory... I worry about the ATL offense being able to run up the score and then TB having to pass the ball and the game becoming a higher scoring game and losing value on the +13 points ATS...
WAS +20.5 is a difficult pick for me to cap, what is your thinking on this pick?
BUF is a hot team +13 points ATS and MIN has injury issues on offense which might result in a lower scoring game... this would give more value to the +13 points ATS...
BUF offensive will benefit from being indoors and conditions not effected by weather favors their passing attack... I like this pick...
DAL +20 is a pick that is a decent IND fade right now... The problem is that if things go badly this could be a manning statement game where he runs up the score... sounds weird I know, but the inexperienced injury replacement players could benefit from the live game reps going forward into the playoffs...
I can see the other two but why play an over with a bad offense on the road at SD which has the leagues best D?
gl
I dont play totals, not my cup of tea... mathematically tho there is not advantage to either, I have followed NFL sides +13 points ATS for a long time tho and stick with that...
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Quote Originally Posted by mischkin04:
I can see the other two but why play an over with a bad offense on the road at SD which has the leagues best D?
gl
I dont play totals, not my cup of tea... mathematically tho there is not advantage to either, I have followed NFL sides +13 points ATS for a long time tho and stick with that...
I havent got much feedback on any of my posts here...nice to be noticed...here are my thoughts...
[quote]TB +16 is one of the hot teams +13 points ATS so this is not a bad pick in theory... I worry about the ATL offense being able to run up the score and then TB having to pass the ball and the game becoming a higher scoring game and losing value on the +13 points ATS...[/quote]
atlanta doesnt really run up the score on anybody. this is the second division matchup after tampa lost a close one in atlanta. tampa believes and is basically the nfc version of buffalo (bad analogy given records, but you get my point i hope). the sharps say atlanta will run all day on tampa, which they will, but what they are missing is that tampa will hang in there. very confident with this play.
[quote]WAS +20.5 is a difficult pick for me to cap, what is your thinking on this pick?[/quote]
it is difficult to cap. i would be shocked, however, if the giants win in a blowout given their tendency to cause self-inflicted wounds. defense is good enough to keep washington close.
[quote]BUF is a hot team +13 points ATS and MIN has injury issues on offense which might result in a lower scoring game... this would give more value to the +13 points ATS...
BUF offensive will benefit from being indoors and conditions not effected by weather favors their passing attack... I like this pick...[/quote]
i think there's a good chance buffalo wins this game straight up. leslie frazier is not jason garrett and i dont expect the recent "good times" in minnisota to continue.
[quote]DAL +20 is a pick that is a decent IND fade right now... The problem is that if things go badly this could be a manning statement game where he runs up the score... sounds weird I know, but the inexperienced injury replacement players could benefit from the live game reps going forward into the playoffs...[/quote]
this could be a risky play based on your points. i've seen enough of the "new" cowboys however to believe that they can hang around.
to be honest, i'm not a big fan of either the washington pick or the dallas pick...i considered the jags but they are without MSW so I'm avoiding that. oh, and i never tease favorites in sweetheart teasers...im specifically looking for points in excess of 2 tds...
[quote]
GL
[/quote]
right back at you!
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I havent got much feedback on any of my posts here...nice to be noticed...here are my thoughts...
[quote]TB +16 is one of the hot teams +13 points ATS so this is not a bad pick in theory... I worry about the ATL offense being able to run up the score and then TB having to pass the ball and the game becoming a higher scoring game and losing value on the +13 points ATS...[/quote]
atlanta doesnt really run up the score on anybody. this is the second division matchup after tampa lost a close one in atlanta. tampa believes and is basically the nfc version of buffalo (bad analogy given records, but you get my point i hope). the sharps say atlanta will run all day on tampa, which they will, but what they are missing is that tampa will hang in there. very confident with this play.
[quote]WAS +20.5 is a difficult pick for me to cap, what is your thinking on this pick?[/quote]
it is difficult to cap. i would be shocked, however, if the giants win in a blowout given their tendency to cause self-inflicted wounds. defense is good enough to keep washington close.
[quote]BUF is a hot team +13 points ATS and MIN has injury issues on offense which might result in a lower scoring game... this would give more value to the +13 points ATS...
BUF offensive will benefit from being indoors and conditions not effected by weather favors their passing attack... I like this pick...[/quote]
i think there's a good chance buffalo wins this game straight up. leslie frazier is not jason garrett and i dont expect the recent "good times" in minnisota to continue.
[quote]DAL +20 is a pick that is a decent IND fade right now... The problem is that if things go badly this could be a manning statement game where he runs up the score... sounds weird I know, but the inexperienced injury replacement players could benefit from the live game reps going forward into the playoffs...[/quote]
this could be a risky play based on your points. i've seen enough of the "new" cowboys however to believe that they can hang around.
to be honest, i'm not a big fan of either the washington pick or the dallas pick...i considered the jags but they are without MSW so I'm avoiding that. oh, and i never tease favorites in sweetheart teasers...im specifically looking for points in excess of 2 tds...
I used to win on teasers and then lose on ATS bets and end up even or down... I have found that sticking with the 4 team 13 point teaser angle in the NFL will end up in more predictable results...
every week, i do something like this:
13 pt 4 team teaser - 10 units
3 team parlay - 4 units
7 team parlay - 2 units
10 team parlay - 1 unit
3 team 6pt teaser - 4 units
7 team 6pt teaser - 2 units
10 team 6pt teaser - 1 unit
basically, i'm looking for the 13pt teaser and one of the smaller other bets to come in so i cover the action, with some upside if any of the "crazier" bets come in. i dont put a lot into it, say $100 per week, but right now I'm up, so I've been putting about $350 per week in action.
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Quote Originally Posted by dl36:
I used to win on teasers and then lose on ATS bets and end up even or down... I have found that sticking with the 4 team 13 point teaser angle in the NFL will end up in more predictable results...
every week, i do something like this:
13 pt 4 team teaser - 10 units
3 team parlay - 4 units
7 team parlay - 2 units
10 team parlay - 1 unit
3 team 6pt teaser - 4 units
7 team 6pt teaser - 2 units
10 team 6pt teaser - 1 unit
basically, i'm looking for the 13pt teaser and one of the smaller other bets to come in so i cover the action, with some upside if any of the "crazier" bets come in. i dont put a lot into it, say $100 per week, but right now I'm up, so I've been putting about $350 per week in action.
Did a little research and i found that divisional dogs in 10 point teasers this year have a record of 43-10 (81%). Divisional dogs this year in 13 point teasers are 44-8-1(85%). There are 9 divisional games this weekend so the dogs should be somewhere around 7-2 for 10 point teasers and mabye 7-1-1 for 13 pointers. Just an observation, hope this helps
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Did a little research and i found that divisional dogs in 10 point teasers this year have a record of 43-10 (81%). Divisional dogs this year in 13 point teasers are 44-8-1(85%). There are 9 divisional games this weekend so the dogs should be somewhere around 7-2 for 10 point teasers and mabye 7-1-1 for 13 pointers. Just an observation, hope this helps
basically, i'm looking for the 13pt teaser and one of the smaller other bets to come in so i cover the action, with some upside if any of the "crazier" bets come in. i dont put a lot into it, say $100 per week, but right now I'm up, so I've been putting about $350 per week in action.
I think once you win a "lottery ticket parlay/teaser" you are hooked... I used to play 7 and 10 teamers looking at the payout and realized that if I just stuck with what I am good at I can probably fare better and limit losses...
The other thing that is risky is changing your unit size... you can go 3-1 (15-1 +13 points ATS) and lose money (winning three 1 unit teasers and losing a 3.5 unit one)
If this is your first few season with this angle, enjoy it and learn from it...then attack the next season with a 17 week game plan to walk away with the most money....
Keep up the good work
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Quote Originally Posted by Howard_Jughes:
every week, i do something like this:
13 pt 4 team teaser - 10 units
3 team parlay - 4 units
7 team parlay - 2 units
10 team parlay - 1 unit
3 team 6pt teaser - 4 units
7 team 6pt teaser - 2 units
10 team 6pt teaser - 1 unit
basically, i'm looking for the 13pt teaser and one of the smaller other bets to come in so i cover the action, with some upside if any of the "crazier" bets come in. i dont put a lot into it, say $100 per week, but right now I'm up, so I've been putting about $350 per week in action.
I think once you win a "lottery ticket parlay/teaser" you are hooked... I used to play 7 and 10 teamers looking at the payout and realized that if I just stuck with what I am good at I can probably fare better and limit losses...
The other thing that is risky is changing your unit size... you can go 3-1 (15-1 +13 points ATS) and lose money (winning three 1 unit teasers and losing a 3.5 unit one)
If this is your first few season with this angle, enjoy it and learn from it...then attack the next season with a 17 week game plan to walk away with the most money....
Did a little research and i found that divisional dogs in 10 point teasers this year have a record of 43-10 (81%). Divisional dogs this year in 13 point teasers are 44-8-1(85%). There are 9 divisional games this weekend so the dogs should be somewhere around 7-2 for 10 point teasers and mabye 7-1-1 for 13 pointers. Just an observation, hope this helps
awesome facts there... great angle...
My old formula was divisional dogs with a O/U > 40
So I took a look at the numbers on these variables of divisional, dog/fav O/U <40...
Historically with the data I analyzed years ago from 1993-2005 there was
no significant difference +13 points ATS in divisional dogs...
So I would be interested to see the data crunched in the last 5 years on this angle... this is an angle that should remain more constant year to year...
thanks for your contribution...
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Quote Originally Posted by conVICK7:
Did a little research and i found that divisional dogs in 10 point teasers this year have a record of 43-10 (81%). Divisional dogs this year in 13 point teasers are 44-8-1(85%). There are 9 divisional games this weekend so the dogs should be somewhere around 7-2 for 10 point teasers and mabye 7-1-1 for 13 pointers. Just an observation, hope this helps
awesome facts there... great angle...
My old formula was divisional dogs with a O/U > 40
So I took a look at the numbers on these variables of divisional, dog/fav O/U <40...
Historically with the data I analyzed years ago from 1993-2005 there was
no significant difference +13 points ATS in divisional dogs...
So I would be interested to see the data crunched in the last 5 years on this angle... this is an angle that should remain more constant year to year...
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