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Week 15 tread lightly

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Legend
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Posted: #1
Falcons +11(-110) *2.20/2.00

Broncos +8.5(+105) *1.00/1.05


Good Luck
 
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Posted: #2

Yeah, kinda hard not to like the Falcons this week after SF’s last 3 games. I am not a big total guy, but I lean to the under heavily. I think SF’s game plan will be to pound the football and bleed the clock and hope their defense can do enough to get out of the game with a 6 point win or something like that. Truth be told that for SF, this game means nothing as long as they beat LA and Seattle. Falcons or no play on the side. Good luck with your bets!!

 
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Posted: #3
Right on BigNiner, huge flat spot. Coming off GB, Balt and Nola. Ravens and Saints were both high leverage till the very bitter end. The Niners(wisely) stayed on the east coast for both of those, so it was like a mini road trip. Not being home for 2 weeks and coming back has it's own "let down" factors and guys should wind down and rest up. 

A lot of dudes are hurt on both sides, but I'm seeing it worse for the Niners. Like you said they should grind it out with running. Unfortunately they lost their starting center and their fullback got a concussion. Chunk yards may not come like they are used to.

Vs the Saints, Shanahan threw the kitchen sink at them. It was amazing how both offenses seemed to never run out of plays. From a coaching perspective, can we expect him to draw up another play chart like last week? That's hard to see imo.

With the Rams and Seattle on deck to close the year it couldn't make for a better sandwich spot.

Before anyone posts it, yes I know Calvin Ridley is out. If I'm the Niners I would rest Richard Sherman and his hammy for the following week. Losing him for the year/playoffs would be detrimental.
 
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Posted: #4

Agree with all of those points.

 
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Posted: #5

I’m a falcons fan and y’all are giving them too much credit. They looked decent last week bc the panthers run D is trash, they won’t be able to run on SF. Matt Ryan will be under pressure all day our O-line is trash. Calvin Ridley out for the year. Trufant out for the year. Shanahan’s revenge game don’t be fooled by last week it will be ugly from the beginning till end 

 
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Posted: #6

Great info and insights. 

 
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Posted: #7

Quote Originally Posted by nopressure1k:

I’m a falcons fan and y’all are giving them too much credit.

This isn’t about the Falcons. They just happen to be the team playing the Niners this week. Undermysac’s points would be valid if the Falcons were replaced by the Jags, Dolphins, or Chargers. This is all about the spot the Niners are in.

 
Legend
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by nopressure1k:

I’m a falcons fan and y’all are giving them too much credit. They looked decent last week bc the panthers run D is trash, they won’t be able to run on SF. Matt Ryan will be under pressure all day our O-line is trash. Calvin Ridley out for the year. Trufant out for the year. Shanahan’s revenge game don’t be fooled by last week it will be ugly from the beginning till end 


Fair points. Counter arguments are welcome here or we wouldn't be handicapping. From a matchup standpoint I can't say that the Falcons best the Niners in many areas. It's a situational spot for me. One thing I disagree with is "Shanahan's revenge".  On what grounds? He left Atlanta for a promotion to be a head coach. Arthur Blank is one of the most respected owners in the nfl. I don't see any animosity. If anything, I think Shanahan respects the organization and won't run up the score.


https://www.nfl.com/videos/atlanta-falcons/0ap3000001086594/PFF-90-Club-Highest-graded-players-Week-14
 
Legend
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Posted: #9
That's not the right link...trying to do this from my phone.

https://www.nfl.com/videos/atlanta-falcons/0ap3000000775983/Silver-Falcons-super-supportive-about-Kyle-Shanahan-going-to-49ers
 
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Posted: #10

^I disagree falcon's fans treated him like sh!t after the super bowl he got majority of the blame. I respect your opinion abt this being a bad spot for the 49ers but this falcons team is poorly coached. U made some good points but I don't see us scoring more than 14 honestly and regardless of their injuries our D will not stop them. This is just my opinion as a fan I've watched this trash team all year and they will lay down if we get down early

 
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Posted: #11

good points tho I follow this forum often and respect ur opinion only reason I replied

 
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Posted: #12

SF rank #4 as a first half scoring team this season. Atl ranked #29th. I've lost alot of money on the falcons lol I just see this game getting ugly

 
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Posted: #13
Tread lightly is solid advice Brother 

The National Fixed League / WWE might have a crazy card for week 15 ...

Nothing would shock me at the point. ....

Interested In rhe Pats getting busted again for Cheating ....

They Finna get black balled ?????



BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
 
Legend
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by DoubleUp4Life:

Tread lightly is solid advice Brother 

The National Fixed League / WWE might have a crazy card for week 15 ...

Nothing would shock me at the point. ....

Interested In rhe Pats getting busted again for Cheating ....

They Finna get black balled ?????




I won some good coin last week, and don't want to give it back before Christmas.

Good Luck Double up
 
Legend
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Posted: #15
8-2 week 14 for +7.95
13-2 posting in the main forum for +15.05

Looks like I grabbed  the worst possible # on Denver. 10's everywhere, a few 9.5's, and worst of all the look ahead was 12.

Someone pounded em to get them down to 8.5 at my book when I took it, maybe I'm a sucker for +$ bets when getting points...

I'll give my take here shortly.
 
Legend
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Posted: #16
First off, I'm riding a trend for a few weeks now.

Teams after a Patriots game(Chiefs)

3-9 SU
2-10 ATS
1-6 ATS as favs(avg line -6.21)

PS= 18.42
PA= 23.92

If you have watched the Broncos this year, you can see that they do a lot of things well and play hard. It just hasn't clicked for entire games, some bad luck, and a tough schedule. Vic Fangio was a life long coordinator and maybe being a coach was a bit much for him early on.

In their first 8 games they went 2-6. That's with Joe Flacco at the helm. They had a 10.8% offensive dvoa in that span, which would rank #6 overall today(about the same as GB) Unfortunately, 3 of their 8 losses were by exactly 2 points. With better luck they could of been 5-3, and then what would we think of them?

Branden Allen started the next 3 games and he just flat out sucks. QBR of 39.7, 46.4 comp %. Denver's offensive dvoa was -16.7% in those games.

Drew Lock is named starter and the Broncos win 2 in a row. Denver's offensive dvoa in those 2 games is 8.9% which is less than weeks 1-8 with Flacco. Lock's QBR is 80.1 w/ a 72.7 comp %.

Flacco's problem was his slow feet. He is easy to sack and he coughed up the ball, 7 fumbles(3 lost) with 5 interceptions. So even if the dorky #'s told us that they were actually good, it's turnovers and the lack of intangibles in a QB that cost them wins.

I like Denver's oline, I think they run the ball as much as they can on the road in a revenge game. KC has problems stopping the run.

Mahomes hurt his hand last game. He'll play but it's his throwing hand. He's been dinged up all year.

Good Luck



 
 
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Posted: #17

Good luck Sac.  I like those two plays.  Appreciate the Post NE Game angle stats too - that is an interesting one.

 
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Posted: #18
With KC clinching the division (I understand they still are playing for home field)and Pat being dinged up, the Broncos playing well and with confidence in both sides of the ball..... that +358ML is tempting. 
 
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Posted: #19
Nice work, bro! Good to see you bounce back!
No team is as good as it looks when winning nor are they as bad as they look when losing
 
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Posted: #20
Thanks ODB

Titans -3(-102) *1.25/1.21

Titans TT OVER 26.5(-120) *1.00/.83

My score: Texans 22.07, Titans 28.47 
 
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Posted: #21

thumbs_upGo Titans...

 
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Posted: #22
Bol this week Sac
 
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Posted: #23

Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:

First off, I'm riding a trend for a few weeks now.Teams after a Patriots game(Chiefs)3-9 SU2-10 ATS1-6 ATS as favs(avg line -6.21)PS= 18.42PA= 23.92If you have watched the Broncos this year, you can see that they do a lot of things well and play hard. It just hasn't clicked for entire games, some bad luck, and a tough schedule. Vic Fangio was a life long coordinator and maybe being a coach was a bit much for him early on.In their first 8 games they went 2-6. That's with Joe Flacco at the helm. They had a 10.8% offensive dvoa in that span, which would rank #6 overall today(about the same as GB) Unfortunately, 3 of their 8 losses were by exactly 2 points. With better luck they could of been 5-3, and then what would we think of them?Branden Allen started the next 3 games and he just flat out sucks. QBR of 39.7, 46.4 comp %. Denver's offensive dvoa was -16.7% in those games.Drew Lock is named starter and the Broncos win 2 in a row. Denver's offensive dvoa in those 2 games is 8.9% which is less than weeks 1-8 with Flacco. Lock's QBR is 80.1 w/ a 72.7 comp %.Flacco's problem was his slow feet. He is easy to sack and he coughed up the ball, 7 fumbles(3 lost) with 5 interceptions. So even if the dorky #'s told us that they were actually good, it's turnovers and the lack of intangibles in a QB that cost them wins.I like Denver's oline, I think they run the ball as much as they can on the road in a revenge game. KC has problems stopping the run.Mahomes hurt his hand last game. He'll play but it's his throwing hand. He's been dinged up all year.Good Luck

 

I am right with you on this one.   Broncos are the last 4 week Titans, killing it with the public/media not paying attention.   Time to jump ship on the Titans and continue riding denver.

 
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Posted: #24
Good luck sac!
 
 
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Posted: #25
Thursday Night action...

Jets 1H TT UNDER 6.5(+105) *1.00/1.05


The Ravens defense is built much like the Patriots, from the back end first. Great coverage backs in their secondary with Earl Thomas leading them.

The Ravens blitz more than any other team in the league and the Jets Oline is awful. Bad o lines do not travel well. LT Kelvin Beachum is going to play with 2 bad ankles, he guards Darnold's blind side. The Jets oline is ranked 30th in adjusted sack rate, and 28th in adjusted line yards on rushes.

TE Ryan Griffin was hurt last game and put on IR. He was the Jets top redzone target.

They will have ZERO depth at RB tonight with LeVeon coming off an illness.

The Jets are just bad on offense, they don't do anything well. And they've faced the 28th ranked D's this season. If this is what they have done all year vs the bottom 5 D's, what will they do vs arguably the top D in the league? Adam Gase is a strange dude, he's not good with QB's. And I was never a fan of Darnold who had one good year at USC.

First half only because the Ravens might literally stop playing in the 2H.

Good Luck 
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