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    WEEK 19..PLAYOFFS

    12 Next Last»
    jowchoo
    UglyKidJoe
    Riderx
    JFEEZEE
    hoody
    ...
    Participants:
    Search
    Views: 3320
    Posts: 36
    12 Next Last»
     
    jowchoo
    jowchoo
    Veteran
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Sep, 2022
    Posts: 3710
    Posted: Jan. 6, 2025 - 2:08 AM ET #1

    Not one to ever flex as it is uncouth and weak, however, will make an exception here.

    Had an award winning year with MY model of regression and Anchor teasers won 61.2%

    over 733 posted plays (448-285). The decades old truism that when the pendulum swings

    too far one then back it will return back (regression). After doing the deep dive for the previous

    5 years it became evident that there was +EV when identifying the highest candidates for regression.

    When embedded in to a two team teaser model the EV grew. Being that ROI is my yardstick, I

    had projected a 58% win rate for 450+ plays. Well, as fate would have it I became somewhat agile

    with the SDQL protocols (thanx indigo, hoody, DBW, spottie, and riderx) and my field of available potential

    candidates increased as well. I love more action and believe this is what stopped anyone from benefiting from

    this MONSTER SCHEME. My juice ranged from (-108 to -123) and completely got outside of recency bias, match ups,

    power ratings, revenge angles, strength of schedule, sandwich games, trap lines etc. I use Vegas' own lines to

    form my basis, nobody will usurp the sharp prices that Vegas creates.

     

    My year has three phases: FUTURES, REGULAR SEASON, PLAYOFFS

     

    FUTURES;

    HOUSTON to win AFC SOUTH (W) 5%

    HOUSTON to go OVER 9.5 wins (W) 2%

    Lost a hedge bet on TENN this week (L) 4.5%

    Still have 1.5%@8.5:1 to win AFC and 1%@16:1 to win SB

    Will guarantee some more profit from better hedging....lol

     

    REGULAR SEASON: Already discussed, never seen a more prolific winning system

    with this massive sample size. Remember "SDQL Anchor Regressive Teaser"

     

    PLAYOFFS:

    Also a much different approach, we will see if this experiment merits

    further considerations. That will be my FIRST and LAST flex.

     

    GOOD LUCK ALL !!

    Reply
    To remove first post, remove entire topic.

    Not one to ever flex as it is uncouth and weak, however, will make an exception here.

    Had an award winning year with MY model of regression and Anchor teasers won 61.2%

    over 733 posted plays (448-285). The decades old truism that when the pendulum swings

    too far one then back it will return back (regression). After doing the deep dive for the previous

    5 years it became evident that there was +EV when identifying the highest candidates for regression.

    When embedded in to a two team teaser model the EV grew. Being that ROI is my yardstick, I

    had projected a 58% win rate for 450+ plays. Well, as fate would have it I became somewhat agile

    with the SDQL protocols (thanx indigo, hoody, DBW, spottie, and riderx) and my field of available potential

    candidates increased as well. I love more action and believe this is what stopped anyone from benefiting from

    this MONSTER SCHEME. My juice ranged from (-108 to -123) and completely got outside of recency bias, match ups,

    power ratings, revenge angles, strength of schedule, sandwich games, trap lines etc. I use Vegas' own lines to

    form my basis, nobody will usurp the sharp prices that Vegas creates.

     

    My year has three phases: FUTURES, REGULAR SEASON, PLAYOFFS

     

    FUTURES;

    HOUSTON to win AFC SOUTH (W) 5%

    HOUSTON to go OVER 9.5 wins (W) 2%

    Lost a hedge bet on TENN this week (L) 4.5%

    Still have 1.5%@8.5:1 to win AFC and 1%@16:1 to win SB

    Will guarantee some more profit from better hedging....lol

     

    REGULAR SEASON: Already discussed, never seen a more prolific winning system

    with this massive sample size. Remember "SDQL Anchor Regressive Teaser"

     

    PLAYOFFS:

    Also a much different approach, we will see if this experiment merits

    further considerations. That will be my FIRST and LAST flex.

     

    GOOD LUCK ALL !!

     
    UglyKidJoe
    UglyKidJoe
    Hall of Fame
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Apr, 2005
    Posts: 22110
    Posted: Jan. 6, 2025 - 2:22 AM ET #2

    thumbs_up

    Reply

    thumbs_up

     
    Riderx
    Riderx
    Rookie
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Feb, 2007
    Posts: 725
    Posted: Jan. 6, 2025 - 2:54 AM ET #3

    Congrats, buddy.  From one to another, it's always great when thousands of hours of hard work pay off.  BOL in the playoffs...cool

    Reply

    Congrats, buddy.  From one to another, it's always great when thousands of hours of hard work pay off.  BOL in the playoffs...cool

     
    JFEEZEE
    JFEEZEE
    Captain
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Aug, 2009
    Posts: 8271
    Posted: Jan. 6, 2025 - 3:02 AM ET #4

    Congrats on Solid year as I tailed quite a few of your plays especially if we were both on the same sides.....Will you utilize the playoffs as an extension of the regular season as there is no byes except for the number one seeds or does the system make big adjustments to these games being the playoffs? 

    Reply

    Congrats on Solid year as I tailed quite a few of your plays especially if we were both on the same sides.....Will you utilize the playoffs as an extension of the regular season as there is no byes except for the number one seeds or does the system make big adjustments to these games being the playoffs? 

     
    jowchoo
    jowchoo
    Veteran
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Sep, 2022
    Posts: 3710
    Posted: Jan. 6, 2025 - 5:40 AM ET #5

    Quote Originally Posted by JFEEZEE:

    Congrats on Solid year as I tailed quite a few of your plays especially if we were both on the same sides.....Will you utilize the playoffs as an extension of the regular season as there is no byes except for the number one seeds or does the system make big adjustments to these games being the playoffs?

    No this model stops at season end. Playoffs are their own special consideration.

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by JFEEZEE:

    Congrats on Solid year as I tailed quite a few of your plays especially if we were both on the same sides.....Will you utilize the playoffs as an extension of the regular season as there is no byes except for the number one seeds or does the system make big adjustments to these games being the playoffs?

    No this model stops at season end. Playoffs are their own special consideration.

     
    jowchoo
    jowchoo
    Veteran
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Sep, 2022
    Posts: 3710
    Posted: Jan. 6, 2025 - 5:53 AM ET #6

    PLAYOFFS

    1. LAC -2.5 to hedge HOU futures (2.5%)

    2. BUF to win AFC +260 (1%)

    3. DEN +10 -120 (1%)

    4. BAL to win AFC +325 (!%)

    5. PIT +10.5 -120 (1%)

    6. PHI to win NFC +350 (1%)

    7. GB +4.5  (1%)

    8. MIN to win AFC +375 (1%)

    9. LAR +3-120 (1%)

     

    Trying to middle , looking for the DOGS to bark

     

     

    Reply

    PLAYOFFS

    1. LAC -2.5 to hedge HOU futures (2.5%)

    2. BUF to win AFC +260 (1%)

    3. DEN +10 -120 (1%)

    4. BAL to win AFC +325 (!%)

    5. PIT +10.5 -120 (1%)

    6. PHI to win NFC +350 (1%)

    7. GB +4.5  (1%)

    8. MIN to win AFC +375 (1%)

    9. LAR +3-120 (1%)

     

    Trying to middle , looking for the DOGS to bark

     

     

     
    jowchoo
    jowchoo
    Veteran
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Sep, 2022
    Posts: 3710
    Posted: Jan. 6, 2025 - 6:42 AM ET #7

    8. obviously is NFC

    Reply

    8. obviously is NFC

     
    hoody
    hoody
    Veteran
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Mar, 2002
    Posts: 1920
    Posted: Jan. 6, 2025 - 10:27 AM ET #8

    game type=WC and playoffs=1 and HF and o:playoffs=1 and op:W and line>=-4   (7-20 ats and 8-18 UN)  Play WASH and UN

    Reply

    game type=WC and playoffs=1 and HF and o:playoffs=1 and op:W and line>=-4   (7-20 ats and 8-18 UN)  Play WASH and UN

     
    maxwagers781
    maxwagers781
    Veteran
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Jan, 2020
    Posts: 3276
    Posted: Jan. 6, 2025 - 10:40 AM ET #9

    an_praise great stuff 

    Nuthin but a g thang baby
    Reply

    an_praise great stuff 

     
    brn2loslive2win
    brn2loslive2win
    Veteran
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Nov, 2016
    Posts: 2687
    Posted: Jan. 7, 2025 - 9:50 AM ET #10

    @jowchoo

     You crushed it jow! Awesome job! Looking forward to seeing your anchor for the first playoff week.

    Reply

    @jowchoo

     You crushed it jow! Awesome job! Looking forward to seeing your anchor for the first playoff week.

     
    Fuse
    Fuse
    Legend
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Mar, 2016
    Posts: 84738
    Posted: Jan. 7, 2025 - 9:57 AM ET #11

    peaceclover

    Learn, be content and stay disciplined.
    Reply

    peaceclover

     
    jowchoo
    jowchoo
    Veteran
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    Joined: Sep, 2022
    Posts: 3710
    Posted: Jan. 8, 2025 - 3:40 AM ET #12

    10. TB -2.5

    Reply

    10. TB -2.5

     
    jowchoo
    jowchoo
    Veteran
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Sep, 2022
    Posts: 3710
    Posted: Jan. 8, 2025 - 5:09 AM ET #13

    @UglyKidJoe

     

    @Riderx

     

    @JFEEZEE

     

    @hoody

     

    @maxwagers781

     

    @brn2loslive2win

     

    @Fuse

     an_cheers

    Reply

    @UglyKidJoe

     

    @Riderx

     

    @JFEEZEE

     

    @hoody

     

    @maxwagers781

     

    @brn2loslive2win

     

    @Fuse

     an_cheers

     
    theclaw
    theclaw
    All-Star
    Participation Meter
    Joined: May, 2008
    Posts: 12179
    Posted: Jan. 8, 2025 - 11:01 AM ET #14

    Very impressive especially  with so many plays.

    Great job jow !!!..................an_clap

    Reply

    Very impressive especially  with so many plays.

    Great job jow !!!..................an_clap

     
    jefff
    jefff
    Veteran
    Participation Meter
    Joined: May, 1999
    Posts: 4024
    Posted: Jan. 8, 2025 - 11:27 AM ET #15

    well done!  i am a bit of a volume bettor and even I'm in awe of 733 posted plays!

     

    you crushed it this year.  congrats!

    Reply

    well done!  i am a bit of a volume bettor and even I'm in awe of 733 posted plays!

     

    you crushed it this year.  congrats!

     
    NONEED4LUCK
    NONEED4LUCK
    Hall of Fame
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Feb, 2007
    Posts: 29189
    Posted: Jan. 8, 2025 - 11:39 AM ET #16

    an_clap

     

    moneybag

    Reply

    an_clap

     

    moneybag

     
    insatiable
    insatiable
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    Joined: Jul, 2007
    Posts: 36896
    Posted: Jan. 8, 2025 - 12:44 PM ET #17

    @jowchoo

     cloveran_cheers

    Reply

    @jowchoo

     cloveran_cheers

     
    jowchoo
    jowchoo
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    Joined: Sep, 2022
    Posts: 3710
    Posted: Jan. 8, 2025 - 12:44 PM ET #18

    @theclaw

     

    @jefff

     

    @NONEED4LUCK

     an_cheers

    Reply

    @theclaw

     

    @jefff

     

    @NONEED4LUCK

     an_cheers

     
    jowchoo
    jowchoo
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    Joined: Sep, 2022
    Posts: 3710
    Posted: Jan. 8, 2025 - 12:47 PM ET #19

    @insatiable

     peace_5

    Reply

    @insatiable

     peace_5

     
    chicubs09
    chicubs09
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    Joined: Apr, 2009
    Posts: 5231
    Posted: Jan. 8, 2025 - 1:26 PM ET #20

    @jowchoo

     Bol this weekclover

    Reply

    @jowchoo

     Bol this weekclover

     
    garbagetime
    garbagetime
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    Joined: Nov, 2016
    Posts: 2172
    Posted: Jan. 8, 2025 - 5:09 PM ET #21

    I didn't tail your plays (volume), but they led me to spend more time looking at ATS trends at teamrankings dot com. I wasn't always sure why you made some plays and not others, but I found that sorting their data usually gave me a decent idea of which teams were vulnerable. So anyway, thanks for all that, and congrats on the great year.

    Reply

    I didn't tail your plays (volume), but they led me to spend more time looking at ATS trends at teamrankings dot com. I wasn't always sure why you made some plays and not others, but I found that sorting their data usually gave me a decent idea of which teams were vulnerable. So anyway, thanks for all that, and congrats on the great year.

     
    Chauster
    Chauster
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    Posts: 10089
    Posted: Jan. 8, 2025 - 5:42 PM ET #22

    clover jowchoo 

    Reply

    clover jowchoo 

     
    jowchoo
    jowchoo
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    Posts: 3710
    Posted: Jan. 9, 2025 - 5:06 AM ET #23

    @chicubs09

     

    @Chauster

     an_cheers

    Reply

    @chicubs09

     

    @Chauster

     an_cheers

     
    jowchoo
    jowchoo
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    Posted: Jan. 17, 2025 - 9:18 PM ET #24

    hedging my Houston win AFC 8.5:1

    Teaser KC -1 and DET -2  (5%)

    Reply

    hedging my Houston win AFC 8.5:1

    Teaser KC -1 and DET -2  (5%)

     
     
    jowchoo
    jowchoo
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    Posts: 3710
    Posted: Jan. 17, 2025 - 10:02 PM ET #25

    TEASERS

    1. KC-2/ under 49

    2. PHIL pk/under 50

    3. DET -2.5/ KC under 49

    4. DET -2.5/ under 50 PHIL

    ALL 1.5%

    Reply

    TEASERS

    1. KC-2/ under 49

    2. PHIL pk/under 50

    3. DET -2.5/ KC under 49

    4. DET -2.5/ under 50 PHIL

    ALL 1.5%

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