Posted:
#1
so i found this "nfl bible" at https://killersports.com/sdb.py/home?sid=guest which basically gives a bunch of crazy trends for each team. i decided to see how their trends hold up for this nfl season
i started in week 2 and so thus far betting on the trends has produced a record of 13-6-1 +6.4 units
basically after the week is over i go through team by team and see if there are any applicable trends for the next week. if there are conflicting trends between two teams playing each other there is no play.
my theory: all trends used are undefeated and there is a solid chance that playing them for a whole season will yield a 55% win rate. if it makes 3 units on the whole season, then well that is 3 more than i had when i started and if it starts tanking i will stop playing it.
all i know is +6.4 units through weeks 2 and 3 is more than most people can say they made
disclaimers:
1- i am not claiming this is a genius system, i'm actually expecting it to lose because of how random, stupid and irrelevant some of the trends are
2- i am brainlessly posting the plays, they are not my personal plays. in fact some of personal plays are different than these. theres is absolutely no thought put into these plays, so please spare me the criticism. i know that if the 'Patriots are 10-0 ATS following a tuesday when tom brady's mom made lasagna and his wife had her period' has nothing to do with sunday's game. believe me i know.
Week 4
Ravens -12
The Ravens are 10-0 ATS (+11.3 ppg) since 2008 when they are off a game in which they allowed 24+ pts and the game went over the total by double-digits.
Vikings ATS (fade on the Lions)
The Lions are 0-13 ATS (-10.2 ppg) since 1997 when they are off a game in which they had 32+ minutes of possession time and recorded fewer than 2 sacks.
The Lions are 0-11 ATS (-6.4 ppg) since January 2005 when they are off any game as a 4+ point favorite.
Falcons -7
The Falcons are 10-0 ATS (+7.2 ppg) since November 17, 2002 as a favorite when they committed fewer turnovers than their opponent in each of their last 3 games.
49ers -4
The 49ers are 12-0 ATS (+13.7 ppg) since November 2008 when they are off a Sunday road game in which they allowed more than 21 points
Texans -12 (fade on the Titans)
The Titans are 0-10 ATS (-8.6 ppg) since December 2004 when they passed for 300+ yards in their last game.
Raiders +6.5
The Raiders are 9-0 ATS (+17.6 ppg) since 2009 as a road dog vs. a divisional opponent, going 8-1 SU in these games.
The Broncos are 0-19 ATS (-11.5 ppg) since January 15th, 2006 as a home favorite vs a team that does not have more wins on the season when they are off a game in which they had more first downs than third down attempts.
Jaguars +2
The Jaguars are 9-0 ATS (+13.1 ppg) since 2005 after November when they are off a road cover.
Saints +7.5 (fade on Packers)
The Packers are 0-11 ATS (-9.5 ppg) when they are off a road loss in which they committed at least 3 more penalties than their season to date average.
Dolphins +6.5 (fade on Cardinals)
The league is 0-18 ATS (-10.8 ppg) since 1999 at home in September when they are off two wins in which they threw zero interceptions.
Bucs/Redskins O47
The Buccaneers are 9-0 OU (+16.4 ppg) since December 23rd, 2001 when they are off a game in which their defense recorded 3+ sacks, but their offense scored at least 7 points fewer than expected
Broncos/Raiders O48.5
The Broncos are 13-0 OU (14.4 ppg) since 2005 as a favorite the week after a SU loss as a dog.
Rams/Seahawks O38
The Rams are 11-0 OU (+8.3 ppg) since 1998 at home in September vs a team that has allowed an average of fewer than 3.75 yards per rush on the season.
Lions/Vikings Under (only if Lions are favorites)
The Lions are 0-9 OU (-14.4 ppg) since 1989 as a favorite on artificial turf the week after a SU loss as a favorite.
Texans/Titans U45
The Titans are 0-10 ATS (-8.6 ppg) since December 2004 when they passed for 300+ yards in their last game.
The Titans are 0-9 OU (-12.7 ppg) since 2005 on the road when their opponent is on a 3+ game winning streak.
i started in week 2 and so thus far betting on the trends has produced a record of 13-6-1 +6.4 units
basically after the week is over i go through team by team and see if there are any applicable trends for the next week. if there are conflicting trends between two teams playing each other there is no play.
my theory: all trends used are undefeated and there is a solid chance that playing them for a whole season will yield a 55% win rate. if it makes 3 units on the whole season, then well that is 3 more than i had when i started and if it starts tanking i will stop playing it.
all i know is +6.4 units through weeks 2 and 3 is more than most people can say they made
disclaimers:
1- i am not claiming this is a genius system, i'm actually expecting it to lose because of how random, stupid and irrelevant some of the trends are
2- i am brainlessly posting the plays, they are not my personal plays. in fact some of personal plays are different than these. theres is absolutely no thought put into these plays, so please spare me the criticism. i know that if the 'Patriots are 10-0 ATS following a tuesday when tom brady's mom made lasagna and his wife had her period' has nothing to do with sunday's game. believe me i know.
Week 4
Ravens -12
The Ravens are 10-0 ATS (+11.3 ppg) since 2008 when they are off a game in which they allowed 24+ pts and the game went over the total by double-digits.
Vikings ATS (fade on the Lions)
The Lions are 0-13 ATS (-10.2 ppg) since 1997 when they are off a game in which they had 32+ minutes of possession time and recorded fewer than 2 sacks.
The Lions are 0-11 ATS (-6.4 ppg) since January 2005 when they are off any game as a 4+ point favorite.
Falcons -7
The Falcons are 10-0 ATS (+7.2 ppg) since November 17, 2002 as a favorite when they committed fewer turnovers than their opponent in each of their last 3 games.
49ers -4
The 49ers are 12-0 ATS (+13.7 ppg) since November 2008 when they are off a Sunday road game in which they allowed more than 21 points
Texans -12 (fade on the Titans)
The Titans are 0-10 ATS (-8.6 ppg) since December 2004 when they passed for 300+ yards in their last game.
Raiders +6.5
The Raiders are 9-0 ATS (+17.6 ppg) since 2009 as a road dog vs. a divisional opponent, going 8-1 SU in these games.
The Broncos are 0-19 ATS (-11.5 ppg) since January 15th, 2006 as a home favorite vs a team that does not have more wins on the season when they are off a game in which they had more first downs than third down attempts.
Jaguars +2
The Jaguars are 9-0 ATS (+13.1 ppg) since 2005 after November when they are off a road cover.
Saints +7.5 (fade on Packers)
The Packers are 0-11 ATS (-9.5 ppg) when they are off a road loss in which they committed at least 3 more penalties than their season to date average.
Dolphins +6.5 (fade on Cardinals)
The league is 0-18 ATS (-10.8 ppg) since 1999 at home in September when they are off two wins in which they threw zero interceptions.
Bucs/Redskins O47
The Buccaneers are 9-0 OU (+16.4 ppg) since December 23rd, 2001 when they are off a game in which their defense recorded 3+ sacks, but their offense scored at least 7 points fewer than expected
Broncos/Raiders O48.5
The Broncos are 13-0 OU (14.4 ppg) since 2005 as a favorite the week after a SU loss as a dog.
Rams/Seahawks O38
The Rams are 11-0 OU (+8.3 ppg) since 1998 at home in September vs a team that has allowed an average of fewer than 3.75 yards per rush on the season.
Lions/Vikings Under (only if Lions are favorites)
The Lions are 0-9 OU (-14.4 ppg) since 1989 as a favorite on artificial turf the week after a SU loss as a favorite.
Texans/Titans U45
The Titans are 0-10 ATS (-8.6 ppg) since December 2004 when they passed for 300+ yards in their last game.
The Titans are 0-9 OU (-12.7 ppg) since 2005 on the road when their opponent is on a 3+ game winning streak.
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