Eagles +10- no way does Philly get beat badly in a close to a must win, Seattle +22.5- Now way Giants win by 3+ tds, KC-14- Indy won't beat anyone by more than 10 points this season, Jax +12- Like the home team with 12 points good value
I dont like the number at 10 for {PHI and I also do not believe in must-win as a factor...
out of all your picks I actually like SEA the best KC at that number lacks value and I do think that IND can beat KC by 14, probably not more then 17 tho... and I agree with the value in the JAX game, but like CIN because of the number and the fact that playing against CIN is more dangerous in terms of variability...
GL with what ever you pick
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Quote Originally Posted by IgetMoney101:
Eagles +10- no way does Philly get beat badly in a close to a must win, Seattle +22.5- Now way Giants win by 3+ tds, KC-14- Indy won't beat anyone by more than 10 points this season, Jax +12- Like the home team with 12 points good value
I dont like the number at 10 for {PHI and I also do not believe in must-win as a factor...
out of all your picks I actually like SEA the best KC at that number lacks value and I do think that IND can beat KC by 14, probably not more then 17 tho... and I agree with the value in the JAX game, but like CIN because of the number and the fact that playing against CIN is more dangerous in terms of variability...
The high o/u indicates a higher scoring game and getting less value for the +13 points ATS...
you are betting on a road fav, crossing the zero to get +10... betting against a BUF team that is averaging over 33 points a game... So if you are conservative and say BUF scores 28 points... then PHI needs to score at least 17 or more points... and they have scored a little under and average of 20 point in their last 2 games... PHI also has already lost by more then points this season...
PHI carries too much hype which inflates their perception and decreases their value...
you are better of betting on a team like MIN that is 0-4 SU but 4-0 +13 points ATS never losing by more then 7 points this season... and you will not need to cross the zero because they will be underdogs more often...
Im officially passing... if you all think it is a must win, I think you will have more value betting -3 ATS...
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Lets break this PHI game down logically...
The high o/u indicates a higher scoring game and getting less value for the +13 points ATS...
you are betting on a road fav, crossing the zero to get +10... betting against a BUF team that is averaging over 33 points a game... So if you are conservative and say BUF scores 28 points... then PHI needs to score at least 17 or more points... and they have scored a little under and average of 20 point in their last 2 games... PHI also has already lost by more then points this season...
PHI carries too much hype which inflates their perception and decreases their value...
you are better of betting on a team like MIN that is 0-4 SU but 4-0 +13 points ATS never losing by more then 7 points this season... and you will not need to cross the zero because they will be underdogs more often...
Im officially passing... if you all think it is a must win, I think you will have more value betting -3 ATS...
Not saying your wrong - because I am a giant fan and biased. But last two games giants vs seattle
11/7/10 - Giants won 41-7 @ seattle
10/5/08 - Giants won 44-6
Both as 7 point favs...west coast team playing 1:00pm Eastern game... I might stay away from taking seattle in this teaser. Gmen would be the side for me, but like i said, I'm biased.
Thank you for the local perspective... priceless info there.. although you have convinced me to go NYG, you have officially convinced me to stay away from SEA... those games I am guessing was with hasselbeck or were they seneca wallace games?
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Quote Originally Posted by letsgomets2007:
Not saying your wrong - because I am a giant fan and biased. But last two games giants vs seattle
11/7/10 - Giants won 41-7 @ seattle
10/5/08 - Giants won 44-6
Both as 7 point favs...west coast team playing 1:00pm Eastern game... I might stay away from taking seattle in this teaser. Gmen would be the side for me, but like i said, I'm biased.
Thank you for the local perspective... priceless info there.. although you have convinced me to go NYG, you have officially convinced me to stay away from SEA... those games I am guessing was with hasselbeck or were they seneca wallace games?
I feel like DET is overrated and could easily be 3-1 or 2-2... big time megatron sportscenter highlights give the impression that they can just throw it up and win games...+8 is a decent number... but im trying to think the last time DET was favored by that much against CHI...
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Quote Originally Posted by PrimeTimeBoys:
Lions +8, Titans +16, Eagles +10, Chiefs +16
I feel like DET is overrated and could easily be 3-1 or 2-2... big time megatron sportscenter highlights give the impression that they can just throw it up and win games...+8 is a decent number... but im trying to think the last time DET was favored by that much against CHI...
GB is overrated right now and that is not a good number...I am actually thinking that ATL has a chance to win this SU...
I read on one of the other forums that homers shouldn't post on the game forums or something g along those lines, but I think that is wrong they offer the best insight on that particular team. Im sure you can tell im a Packer fan by my pic... but i disagree with the Packers are overrated statement, Yes, their pass def is that of a high school football team, but their offence is pristine (run game is weak but...). I do agree that the number doesn't give a good line and I personally wont be betting on this game anyway unless the over. I think the Packers can blow them out, but this is the one game this season that worries me for the packers ATL in ATL doesn't get much tougher than that I also could see ATL rolling too.
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Quote Originally Posted by dl36:
GB is overrated right now and that is not a good number...I am actually thinking that ATL has a chance to win this SU...
I read on one of the other forums that homers shouldn't post on the game forums or something g along those lines, but I think that is wrong they offer the best insight on that particular team. Im sure you can tell im a Packer fan by my pic... but i disagree with the Packers are overrated statement, Yes, their pass def is that of a high school football team, but their offence is pristine (run game is weak but...). I do agree that the number doesn't give a good line and I personally wont be betting on this game anyway unless the over. I think the Packers can blow them out, but this is the one game this season that worries me for the packers ATL in ATL doesn't get much tougher than that I also could see ATL rolling too.
No disrespect on my previous statement just dont think they deserve the overrated tag... They have won the last 10 games SU including the Superbowl, and are 7-1 ATS in their last 8. I know that last season stats dont count to much for this season but if you would add the +13 to all of the packers games from week 1 last year till now they would have covered all of them.
Food for thought.
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No disrespect on my previous statement just dont think they deserve the overrated tag... They have won the last 10 games SU including the Superbowl, and are 7-1 ATS in their last 8. I know that last season stats dont count to much for this season but if you would add the +13 to all of the packers games from week 1 last year till now they would have covered all of them.
No disrespect on my previous statement just dont think they deserve the overrated tag... They have won the last 10 games SU including the Superbowl, and are 7-1 ATS in their last 8. I know that last season stats dont count to much for this season but if you would add the +13 to all of the packers games from week 1 last year till now they would have covered all of them.
Food for thought.
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No disrespect on my previous statement just dont think they deserve the overrated tag... They have won the last 10 games SU including the Superbowl, and are 7-1 ATS in their last 8. I know that last season stats dont count to much for this season but if you would add the +13 to all of the packers games from week 1 last year till now they would have covered all of them.
tease the 13 to get a beautiful spread for chicago. the bears know that this is a do or die game for them... if they lose this they can kiss their playoff chances gooooooood bye. players know this , and besides earl bennett and chris spaeth on the injury chart the rest of the will be back after the long week. the bears are the best team detroit has played this year, and these guys always play each other hard. this will be a 3-5 point gAme either way... this is one of the best divisions in football, and when two teams go up against each other no one ever gets blown out.
New York Jets got crushed by a rival last week, and baltimore's defense completely took over the game. New England's D is nowhere near that good. Plus the Jets defense matches up nicely to the pats offense... a matchup we saw work in the jets favor in last years playoffs. even the spread looks like a winner. tease em
Titans are looking pretty good this season, and the steelers are falling apart. considering big ben will be rolling on the field in a wheelchair, and chris johnson will be getting 25-30 runs...i look for this to be a low scoring game, so teasing either team looks like a play, but im gonna take Tennessee +16. Steelers D will keep it close, but the titans will still walk out of shitsburgh with a win.
i also love the Bucs... XhuegoX wrote it up the best.
Bears+18 Jets+20.5 Titans+16 Bucs+16
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tease the 13 to get a beautiful spread for chicago. the bears know that this is a do or die game for them... if they lose this they can kiss their playoff chances gooooooood bye. players know this , and besides earl bennett and chris spaeth on the injury chart the rest of the will be back after the long week. the bears are the best team detroit has played this year, and these guys always play each other hard. this will be a 3-5 point gAme either way... this is one of the best divisions in football, and when two teams go up against each other no one ever gets blown out.
New York Jets got crushed by a rival last week, and baltimore's defense completely took over the game. New England's D is nowhere near that good. Plus the Jets defense matches up nicely to the pats offense... a matchup we saw work in the jets favor in last years playoffs. even the spread looks like a winner. tease em
Titans are looking pretty good this season, and the steelers are falling apart. considering big ben will be rolling on the field in a wheelchair, and chris johnson will be getting 25-30 runs...i look for this to be a low scoring game, so teasing either team looks like a play, but im gonna take Tennessee +16. Steelers D will keep it close, but the titans will still walk out of shitsburgh with a win.
i also love the Bucs... XhuegoX wrote it up the best.
Some good stuff & thinkin goin on here. Not much to add & have narrowed down to 5 13ptrs for the week, but only includes 3 sides & give all 3 a great shot at winnin straight up -
Cincy +15.5 (now -1 at my place, wouldn't hesitate at anything over 14 with the 13 teaser pts)
Tenny +16 ( like the Titans by 3 - 16 should be safe)
TB +16 (ditto above)
Have GB/Atl over 40 in all 5 & Oak/Hou over 35.5 in 2 -
GLA with whatever you roll with
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Some good stuff & thinkin goin on here. Not much to add & have narrowed down to 5 13ptrs for the week, but only includes 3 sides & give all 3 a great shot at winnin straight up -
Cincy +15.5 (now -1 at my place, wouldn't hesitate at anything over 14 with the 13 teaser pts)
Tenny +16 ( like the Titans by 3 - 16 should be safe)
TB +16 (ditto above)
Have GB/Atl over 40 in all 5 & Oak/Hou over 35.5 in 2 -
Don't love a ton of these this week, but I'd start with the Giants +3.5. I'm feeling confident in the Patriots +4 as well because Sanchez already got his "surprise" game against these guys in last year's playoffs. Those are my two most confident straight up winners.
I'm looking to fill the last two spots with two of these five - Raiders +18.5, Panthers +19.5, Titans +16, Bengals +15, Bucs +16. I think each of these have a shot of an outright win, especially Tennessee.
Without Andre Johnson and with Jacoby Jones gimpy, I expect the Texans to run the ball a ton. If needed, I think Jason Campbell has a better chance to backdoor Houston than he did New England.
I do like the Saints to beat Carolina, but Cam's a backdoor king. They're not going to stop throwing the ball, so even as good as the Saints are, I like Carolina's chances of staying within 3 TDs.
I don't think the Titans are as good defensively as their ranking says, but Pittsburgh is struggling. Ben's banged up, his line sucks, and Mendenhall and Harrison are out. I don't see the Titans having a letdown here, and that's what it would take to not cover the 16 points. The Steelers aren't going to be throwing it all over the place if they're up two scores. Will probably play Tennessee ML small if I ever get a line.
Both the Jags and Bengals suck IMO, but the Bengals have the more competent rookie passer and receiving targets. Cincinnati's pass defense is clearly better than Jacksonville's as well. Knowing that I feel comfortable with two TDs in my pocket.
Bucs fan here. Sloppy performance on MNF followed by a cross country trip out west isn't enticing, but the Bucs did win out there 21-0 last year. Freeman is the difference for this team and should have his successes against a struggling pass defense. I think the Bucs will have a better chance if they come out establishing the pass instead of pounding Blount early. Spread out the Niners and work Williams, Winslow, and Parker in the intermediate zones. Then start featuring Blount. Mix in some boot action and really capitalize on Freeman's ability to make big (key) plays with his legs. Gore's gimpy, and our front seven (especially the DL) is starting to get a lot of confidence. I look for them to keep SF's ground game in check and get after Alex Smith who's already been sacked 14 times this year. If this one is close in the 4th, I'd much rather have my money on Freeman than Smith.
Gun to head right now -
NE +4...NYG +3.5...TEN +16...TB +16
you bring up a good point with CAR as they are 4-0 +13 points ATS
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Quote Originally Posted by phillipnorris:
Don't love a ton of these this week, but I'd start with the Giants +3.5. I'm feeling confident in the Patriots +4 as well because Sanchez already got his "surprise" game against these guys in last year's playoffs. Those are my two most confident straight up winners.
I'm looking to fill the last two spots with two of these five - Raiders +18.5, Panthers +19.5, Titans +16, Bengals +15, Bucs +16. I think each of these have a shot of an outright win, especially Tennessee.
Without Andre Johnson and with Jacoby Jones gimpy, I expect the Texans to run the ball a ton. If needed, I think Jason Campbell has a better chance to backdoor Houston than he did New England.
I do like the Saints to beat Carolina, but Cam's a backdoor king. They're not going to stop throwing the ball, so even as good as the Saints are, I like Carolina's chances of staying within 3 TDs.
I don't think the Titans are as good defensively as their ranking says, but Pittsburgh is struggling. Ben's banged up, his line sucks, and Mendenhall and Harrison are out. I don't see the Titans having a letdown here, and that's what it would take to not cover the 16 points. The Steelers aren't going to be throwing it all over the place if they're up two scores. Will probably play Tennessee ML small if I ever get a line.
Both the Jags and Bengals suck IMO, but the Bengals have the more competent rookie passer and receiving targets. Cincinnati's pass defense is clearly better than Jacksonville's as well. Knowing that I feel comfortable with two TDs in my pocket.
Bucs fan here. Sloppy performance on MNF followed by a cross country trip out west isn't enticing, but the Bucs did win out there 21-0 last year. Freeman is the difference for this team and should have his successes against a struggling pass defense. I think the Bucs will have a better chance if they come out establishing the pass instead of pounding Blount early. Spread out the Niners and work Williams, Winslow, and Parker in the intermediate zones. Then start featuring Blount. Mix in some boot action and really capitalize on Freeman's ability to make big (key) plays with his legs. Gore's gimpy, and our front seven (especially the DL) is starting to get a lot of confidence. I look for them to keep SF's ground game in check and get after Alex Smith who's already been sacked 14 times this year. If this one is close in the 4th, I'd much rather have my money on Freeman than Smith.
Gun to head right now -
NE +4...NYG +3.5...TEN +16...TB +16
you bring up a good point with CAR as they are 4-0 +13 points ATS
Ten +16 - Ben hurting, Mendenhall might miss game, OL complete mess, LT is either injured Scott or Starks, who practiced w/ team for first time in a yr. No way Starks in playing shape as he's had weight issues. Johnson is going to break out one of these days.
Oak +19 - Johnson out, next best ball catcher is TE Daniels and only TE to do any damage against Oak so far is Jets' Keller, NE Gronkowski only had 1 catch. Early East Coast AM game for Oak but they did good against Buf earlier in yr.
another on oak
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Quote Originally Posted by gmitran:
Gun to head...
Ten +16 - Ben hurting, Mendenhall might miss game, OL complete mess, LT is either injured Scott or Starks, who practiced w/ team for first time in a yr. No way Starks in playing shape as he's had weight issues. Johnson is going to break out one of these days.
Oak +19 - Johnson out, next best ball catcher is TE Daniels and only TE to do any damage against Oak so far is Jets' Keller, NE Gronkowski only had 1 catch. Early East Coast AM game for Oak but they did good against Buf earlier in yr.
This is an excellent thread, I'm learning a lot... disappointed that I didn't see it the last few weeks.
According to my friend's spreadsheet that spits out the line and totals based on stats and other variables we have the following indicators that these would be good teaser plays:
Bengals -10.5 with a total of 28.5
Buffalo -7 with a total of 58
Denver +4.5 with a total of 42.5
Carolina +5 with a total of 52.5
They are all dogs, so the additional 13 pts is beneficial, especially on Cincy where its expected to be a low scoring game (if it does go over it will be late in the game).
Denver is a live home dog that I think can win outright so 13 pts more with a projected total of only 42.5 is a solid play.
Buffalo has just as much chance to beat Philly as everyone here who thinks Philly is a lock. The Eagles are highly overrated, they play sloppy, they depend on Vick way too much, and even teams in a "must-win" situation can lose. So Buffalo which is a legitimate ML play getting 13 more is favorable as well, and I wouldn't worry about a high scoring affair. Philly has to play solid defense if they are going to win this game (which I believe they can), also Bills have went "over" 4 straight so the line while not overly inflated is baiting the public into another 50's total and I don't see it getting that high.
I think Carolina is going to win straight up, the Saints have covered 3 in a row (Carolina has as well, but road teams laying a TD is probably too high vs: a team who has been covering a lot themselves). Had the Saints not covered 3 in a row this line should be more like +4.5.
If you don't like any of the 4 you can replace one with Tampa as they should beat the 49ers outright.
So that's my 4:
Buffalo +15.5
Denver +16.5
Carolina +19.5
Cincinnati +12
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This is an excellent thread, I'm learning a lot... disappointed that I didn't see it the last few weeks.
According to my friend's spreadsheet that spits out the line and totals based on stats and other variables we have the following indicators that these would be good teaser plays:
Bengals -10.5 with a total of 28.5
Buffalo -7 with a total of 58
Denver +4.5 with a total of 42.5
Carolina +5 with a total of 52.5
They are all dogs, so the additional 13 pts is beneficial, especially on Cincy where its expected to be a low scoring game (if it does go over it will be late in the game).
Denver is a live home dog that I think can win outright so 13 pts more with a projected total of only 42.5 is a solid play.
Buffalo has just as much chance to beat Philly as everyone here who thinks Philly is a lock. The Eagles are highly overrated, they play sloppy, they depend on Vick way too much, and even teams in a "must-win" situation can lose. So Buffalo which is a legitimate ML play getting 13 more is favorable as well, and I wouldn't worry about a high scoring affair. Philly has to play solid defense if they are going to win this game (which I believe they can), also Bills have went "over" 4 straight so the line while not overly inflated is baiting the public into another 50's total and I don't see it getting that high.
I think Carolina is going to win straight up, the Saints have covered 3 in a row (Carolina has as well, but road teams laying a TD is probably too high vs: a team who has been covering a lot themselves). Had the Saints not covered 3 in a row this line should be more like +4.5.
If you don't like any of the 4 you can replace one with Tampa as they should beat the 49ers outright.
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