Week 5: 4 team 13 point teaser teaser thread (4-0 +5.5 units)

To me , THE MOST INTRIGUING THING ABOUT THESE "TRENDS"
ARE THAT VEGAS CAN'T CONTROL THEM BECAUSE THEY HAVE TO FOCUS MORE ON THE REGULAR SPREAD. MEANING THE SPREAD HAS TO MAKE SENSE TO THEM. 

THEY CAN't SAY "  Detroit Opponents has covered 13 point teasers 36-0 so we gotta do something, or Atlanta has covered 13 pt teasers 36-1 , we need to jack the spreads"

Great work NEO

It is great to see it all at once like this...

learning alot...  interesting to me how there are a few trends over 90%...

Amazing stuff

Good thread & info. Haven't pulled any triggers yet but liking these options best. Dal & SF both have a little more vulnerability than I like & like Atl the best of those. Be interesting to see how many of these pan out -

Sides: Rams +16, Balty +6, Atl +10, TB +19.5, NYG +16, NO +6, SDG +6.5

Totals: Indy over 32, Hou over 32, STL over 30, Atl over 28.5, NO over 32.5, minny over 25

Keep it rollin dl & GLA!

They are HIDDEN stats you have to Mine and DIG for.

Here are some ideas based on these stats.  If you were leaning to any of these , then the stats back you up.
 Based on current 5dimes lines

ATL+10.5   (36-1)   vs Clev (opponents are 33-3)
GB +10.5   (33-4)   vs  Wash (opponents are 34-2)
INDY +4.5 (31-5)   vs   KC ( opponents are 30-5)
STL +15.5 (4-0 this year) vs Detr (opponents are 36-0)
                Sam Bradford era makes this
CHI +15.5 (30-6)     vs  Car (opponents are 32-5)
Hous +10.5 (30-6)   vs  NYG (opponents are 31-6)
NO +6 (35-4)    vs   ARZ (4-0 this year, rookie Qb start)
PHI +16 (32-4)   vs SF (opponents are 4-0 this year) 
                iffy w KOLB no VICK , niner games seam close







Balt all have counter tendencies this matchup

good info neo

SO HERE IS MY FINAL TEASER THIS WEEK

ATLANTA +10.5 (nice number, 36-1, opp of clev 33-3)  
GB +10.5  (nice number, GB 33-4, Opp of wash 34-2)
STL +15.5   (fade DET 36-0, Rams can win)
NO +6  ( Saints are 48-3, including preseasons, gettin +6 points)

mmmmm, all road teams I see.
Did notice that as a WHOLE , loses where more from Road than home.

may have to rethink.

Any ideas from others, NOT considering the stats.
Just capping

Neo - after looking at everything you posted....made me change my pick
GB scares me because of all the injury and playing from away

MIN +17
IND +6
ATL +10
DET +10 I just like them at home ..I believe this can go both way

PHI +16 is nice
Sf hasn't even WON a game , let alone one by 16.
Kolb should FIGHT to show he is viable.
PhilLy is 10-0 vs SF last 10 games played +13 teaser

But I will stay withthe rams play, as they have allowed an avg of 13 points PER GAME, and they are getting 16.  AND detroit OPPONENT ARE 36-0 with +13

I LIKE YOUR TEASER. 2 home , 2 away.

Detroit Very motivated for win
Atl a stat no-brainer
Manning +6 at home
Farve/Moss to stay within 16.5 on Monday night

NICE!

just a note, since my eyes were glazing over so many scores.

It is TRUE that many games are won / lost by 3, 7, 10, 13

so atl+10 , det +10 aren't GREAT teaser numbers, as they will lose if game is 10 point diff. 

BUt my NO +6 ain't a great number either

3 is the most common and important number...  7 is next...  if you have those covered, you are covering over a third of the possible outcomes in terms of score differential...

10, 14, 17, 21, I think we talk alot about them, especially teasing dogs, but realistically the game will be settled by a common number or a number so large that it is an outlier...

To me a +10 is like a + 7.5 but you have a little more cushion with 8, and 9...

and NO + 6 is like a +3.5 but getting 4 and 5...

I think that IND and DET are anomalous teams in terms of regular season record in recent history...

I think that DET who is 4-0 is better then what numbers tell us and IND who has injury and defensive problems is not as a good as the numbers tell us...

with that said, STL +16 might be a great pick because the indoor game might fit STL's offense attack better then if they were on the road in some time of rain/wind climate...

I could also see this one being a higher scoring game, which actually gives less value on the +13 points ATS...

In a 17-9 game, 13 points account for 50% of the total scoring and has more value...

in a 35-17 game ,13 points accounts for 25% of the scoring and has in theory half the value of the lower scoring game...

This is  a variable I at least look at every week...  this variable is what made me consider MIN and SF as I see both these games being lower scoring...

 

Just to toss in my favorites if you're going +13--

Indianapolis +4.5 (Colts play differently at home. Off a loss and in this situation, I have them covering +13 at an 88.88% clip)

Tennessee/Dallas under 55 (covering +13 90.47% of the time. "IF" you care to use totals.)

Atlanta +10.5 (80.95% cover rate)

Green Bay +10.5 (87.5% cover rate)

The percentages I use are based on my own database and are calculated using previous spreads but also take into account the situational aspect of each game. I like these situations and the accompanying numbers best in 13-point teasers. And if I were to play one, these are the 4 I'd use.

d

I still do not like this week at all, so this is a 1 unit play...

SF +9.5
DAL +6
SD +6.5
ATL +10


GL



If I had to play a 3 team 6 point teaser tho I would go with (5 dimes)

DAL -1.5
SD -1
ATL +3.5

pays +172

so the above is my final picks...

I hope this thread is helpful... tough week this week, but thats why the bet is less...

Actually, excuse the spam but II just happened to notice that my db also spat out that Indianapolis over 32.5 in this situation happens to have covered at a 100% rate going back 3 years (which is as far back as I feel is relevant). So I might add that or replace one of my earlier selections...again "if" I were playing a 13-pointer.

You my friend is absolutely correct. With all that said, I will still stick with my plays with only minutes left till game time.

Neo, wow can't believe Detroit blew them out
the only game I'm waiting on is Minnesota
BOL to all who still have it pending

LOST n FOUND,
yes 36-0 trend dies today , RAMS should have been a no play for at 69.44 % last 2.3 years BUT, I thought Bradford would keep em in it and I was swayed by RAMS allowing only 14 points per game.

I di still have that original teaser I locked in days ago when I first started doing trends. That one was based on last 10 games played.

Denv +20 (lucky last min TD)  W
KC +20.5  W
Tenn +19.5  pending
Minn +15.5 pending

GL

DL36 , the teaser master,
YAY, DALLAS and SD recovered. BACK IN IT FOR YOU!

SF +9.5 pending
DAL +6 pending
SD +6.5  pending
ATL +10  WIN

I didn't touch the later games because I don't like this week plays...All of my picks seems bad and I still think I got really really lucky..
BOL hope you get them damn bookies

HEY DL36,  Looking head to next week. Early leans

Balt +15.5
Raiders +20  
KC +18
Detr +  24.5
PItt -2.5
Raiders / SF OVER 28
Tenn +10.5

WHat do you like

Balt and Raiders I think I'm doing no matter what .

Giving Balt def +13, losing Moss for NE, and I'm just doing BALT +13
          for the rest of the season

Raiders +20, SF hasn't won a game , let alone one by 20
      they won't be loose, playing tight/worried.  Raiders will have plenty
      of fans, confident with their last game

KC +18, nice number

INDY +10.5 I like better than INdy +10 (current)

Detr +24.5 is a huge number

Tenn +10.5, nice number ,  Fade WASH play