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The information below will be provided by different resource outlets along with my opinion / picks with value.
Thursday, October 20 at 8:25 PM ET:
Chicago Bears@ Green Bay Packers
The Breakdown: As if Thursday games were not already ugly enough, this injury-riddled matchup shows up to potentially deflate the energy around what is normally a great rivalry... This line has steadily fallen after the Packers were near double-digit favorites to start the week. At +9.5 or greater, the Bears would be our Lock of the Week this week. There is still value in them at +8 though. Green Bay is exclusively down to backups at both running back and cornerback. That cannot be good. Meanwhile, though it has not translated into wins, the Bears are markedly improved with Brian Hoyer and Jordan Howard leading the way offensively. Brian Hoyer's team has lost by more than a touchdown just eight times in his last 31 starts (17 losses). He is adequate enough to keep games competitive, especially against a team as beat up as the Packers. I also always look at the turnover margin where Bears are -1 and Packers are at -3
Prediction Bears + 8 $330-$300
Chicago Bears, 21 @ Green Bay Packers, 27
Sunday, October 23 at 1:00 PM ET:
Washington Redskins @ Detroit Lions
The Breakdown: Washington dominated in a 27-20 home win over Philadelphia last week, despite entering the game as three point underdogs. The game was not even that close as Washington out-gained the Eagles by 254 yards and 2.4 yards-per-play.
This week, the Redskins are going on the road, yet they face what we currently grade as the 27th ranked team according to our NFL Power Rankings (Washington is a Top Ten team overall by that metric). On the year, the Redskins are out-gaining opponents by 0.4 yards-per-play, while Detroit is out-gained by 0.7 yards-per-play. Washington has played a tougher schedule than the Lions. Washington ranks as better than Detroit in all strength-of-schedule-adjusted efficiency metrics, except for run defense where both teams are Bottom Three in the NFL, but the Redskins are just slightly worse (look for the Redskins to exploit that better than the banged-up, pass-happy Lions as well). Last week, Washington took on the fifth worst run defense and shredded that squad for 230 yards on 33 carries (7.0 yards-per-carry). Matching that is unlikely, yet anything close to that should lead to another Washington win.
Prediction Redskins +1 $550-500
Washington Redskins, 28 @ Detroit Lions, 25
Sunday, October 23 at 1:00 PM ET:
New Orleans Saints@ Kansas City Chiefs
The Breakdown: This game i have a strong opinion on the total (which has gone UP this week despite the strong public stance on the UNDER). The Steelers (with Ben Roethlisberger) and Chargers are both pass-happy teams with explosive playmakers and Top Ten pass offenses. In two games against those teams, the Chiefs played in games that averaged 58.5 points. New Orleans is pass happy (the pass-happiest in the league) with a Top Five pass offense. Also, six of the last eight Saints games have topped 50 points. And for those wondering, opposing teams have averaged 28 points-per-game at home against the Saints in ten New Orleans road games since the start of last season. If New Orleans can keep this remotely competitive, the OVER looks easy.
Boxscore: Over 50 $880-800
New Orleans Saints, 25 @ Kansas City Chiefs, 31
Thursday, October 20 at 8:25 PM ET:
Chicago Bears@ Green Bay Packers
The Breakdown: As if Thursday games were not already ugly enough, this injury-riddled matchup shows up to potentially deflate the energy around what is normally a great rivalry... This line has steadily fallen after the Packers were near double-digit favorites to start the week. At +9.5 or greater, the Bears would be our Lock of the Week this week. There is still value in them at +8 though. Green Bay is exclusively down to backups at both running back and cornerback. That cannot be good. Meanwhile, though it has not translated into wins, the Bears are markedly improved with Brian Hoyer and Jordan Howard leading the way offensively. Brian Hoyer's team has lost by more than a touchdown just eight times in his last 31 starts (17 losses). He is adequate enough to keep games competitive, especially against a team as beat up as the Packers. I also always look at the turnover margin where Bears are -1 and Packers are at -3
Prediction Bears + 8 $330-$300
Chicago Bears, 21 @ Green Bay Packers, 27
Sunday, October 23 at 1:00 PM ET:
Washington Redskins @ Detroit Lions
The Breakdown: Washington dominated in a 27-20 home win over Philadelphia last week, despite entering the game as three point underdogs. The game was not even that close as Washington out-gained the Eagles by 254 yards and 2.4 yards-per-play.
This week, the Redskins are going on the road, yet they face what we currently grade as the 27th ranked team according to our NFL Power Rankings (Washington is a Top Ten team overall by that metric). On the year, the Redskins are out-gaining opponents by 0.4 yards-per-play, while Detroit is out-gained by 0.7 yards-per-play. Washington has played a tougher schedule than the Lions. Washington ranks as better than Detroit in all strength-of-schedule-adjusted efficiency metrics, except for run defense where both teams are Bottom Three in the NFL, but the Redskins are just slightly worse (look for the Redskins to exploit that better than the banged-up, pass-happy Lions as well). Last week, Washington took on the fifth worst run defense and shredded that squad for 230 yards on 33 carries (7.0 yards-per-carry). Matching that is unlikely, yet anything close to that should lead to another Washington win.
Prediction Redskins +1 $550-500
Washington Redskins, 28 @ Detroit Lions, 25
Sunday, October 23 at 1:00 PM ET:
New Orleans Saints@ Kansas City Chiefs
The Breakdown: This game i have a strong opinion on the total (which has gone UP this week despite the strong public stance on the UNDER). The Steelers (with Ben Roethlisberger) and Chargers are both pass-happy teams with explosive playmakers and Top Ten pass offenses. In two games against those teams, the Chiefs played in games that averaged 58.5 points. New Orleans is pass happy (the pass-happiest in the league) with a Top Five pass offense. Also, six of the last eight Saints games have topped 50 points. And for those wondering, opposing teams have averaged 28 points-per-game at home against the Saints in ten New Orleans road games since the start of last season. If New Orleans can keep this remotely competitive, the OVER looks easy.
Boxscore: Over 50 $880-800
New Orleans Saints, 25 @ Kansas City Chiefs, 31
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