Week 7 Props and Plays

So far its been my best ever NFL season so let's keep the momentum rolling. 

- JAX -5.5 (seems like a slam dunk which worries me a little but I'm playing it anyway. They are still in London for 2nd week now, Pats coming in with rookie QB 2nd game, and Jax bounce back after a terrible showing)

- GB -2.5 (I just think they are a much better team than Houston especially defensively and Houston is on 2nd straight road game after blowing out NE)

Lean to - MIA +3.5 is probably going to be a play for me. Coming off by facing a pretty bad defense. My book has +3 +100 right now though so I will wait and see on that. 

Props: not many posted yet, but here's what I have so far

Rattler o20.5 rush yds (4 of 6 QBs, including Aaron Rodgers cleared this number against DEN so Rattler should have no problem)

Brian Thomas Jr TD +165 (I think JAX will have a lot of success throwing against NE and BTJ looks to be the top red zone target for Lawrence plus hes a great deep threat)

Trevor Lawrence o1.5 passing TD +110 (Again I look to JAX to have a lot of success in the pass game vs NE so I'll take the plus money for chief long hair to get 2 tuddies)

I really like packers here, last week I took them -13 on an alt line vs cards, maybe this week I’ll go with them -6

NFC North is the strongest division so far

combined records:

17-5 SU

17-4-1 ATS

All 4 teams are in top 9 defenses

Takeaways/game

1 packers

2 vikes

3 bears 

4 lions + saints (tie)

BOL 

@Biscuit

 Yea they are a strong division thats for sure. I made Detroit -3 my biggest play of the season last week. It was the perfect spot for blowout. Wish i had put even more on it of course

Added:

Brian Thomas Jr o53.5 rec yds

Added:

DET/MIN u50.5 (division game with 2 defenses that can tighten this game up. Detroit has not been very good against the pass but they are looking better recently and we know Minnesota can play D. Detroit is really humming on offense but its their 2nd straight roadie and I think Minnesota can slow them down significantly)

Already hit:

Brian Thomas o53.5 

Brian Thomas TD +165 

Halfway to Lawrence o1.5 pass TDs and pending JAX -5.5

Great start!

JAX -5.5 

4-1 to start including +165 hit pending just 

GB -2.5

DET/MIN u50.5

Started great but lost by the dreaded hook on GB and just too much offensive power in the Detroit game. I so rarely bet unders too. 

So 4-3 today but had the nice big plus money hit on the TD prop. 

It's very interesting these 2.5 pt spread numbers have become more and more key. I know this is at least the second time this year but maybe the third time I've lost by the hook on the 2.5 number.

I used to mostly bet the moneyline if I played the dog catching 2.5, but this year I've played the spread on those since its coming into play more. There's a lot more going for 2 now for different reasons including more missed XPs. 

I think we just need to start valuing the 2 more going forward.