Why would you make your parlay, and already be looking to hedge?
Why would you even hedge?
I'll never understand why people hedge
It's probably because the average person's math skills equal that of a 5th grader. They don't understand hedging costs them money in the long run. They look at the "short run." They fail to understand that if they never hedge, over a short period of time they will end up with MORE money than if they always hedge!
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Quote Originally Posted by Lethargic_Budah:
Why would you make your parlay, and already be looking to hedge?
Why would you even hedge?
I'll never understand why people hedge
It's probably because the average person's math skills equal that of a 5th grader. They don't understand hedging costs them money in the long run. They look at the "short run." They fail to understand that if they never hedge, over a short period of time they will end up with MORE money than if they always hedge!
If you bet 100 to win 1000 on a 4 team parlay and ur last play is on Monday night. I would bet $500 the other way to take the guaranteed money.
Ok.
So you have a 4 team parlay, roughly valuing each pick at -120 would give you $100 for roughly $1050. Right?
Your last play is on Monday night, roughly saying with the same odds of -120. Your parlay RIGHT now is actually a 3 team parlay valuing in at 100 for $515. If you're gonna hedge your final game
$500 for $600. WHY THE HELL DIDN'T YOU JUST DO A 3 TEAM PARLAY?
Hedging is simply selling something for less than it is worth. Short time profit. Yes. Long term, you're losing money. Don't make 4 team $100 parlays if you're not willing to take the risk or lose $100
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Quote Originally Posted by liem350z:
If you bet 100 to win 1000 on a 4 team parlay and ur last play is on Monday night. I would bet $500 the other way to take the guaranteed money.
Ok.
So you have a 4 team parlay, roughly valuing each pick at -120 would give you $100 for roughly $1050. Right?
Your last play is on Monday night, roughly saying with the same odds of -120. Your parlay RIGHT now is actually a 3 team parlay valuing in at 100 for $515. If you're gonna hedge your final game
$500 for $600. WHY THE HELL DIDN'T YOU JUST DO A 3 TEAM PARLAY?
Hedging is simply selling something for less than it is worth. Short time profit. Yes. Long term, you're losing money. Don't make 4 team $100 parlays if you're not willing to take the risk or lose $100
It's probably because the average person's math skills equal that of a 5th grader. They don't understand hedging costs them money in the long run. They look at the "short run." They fail to understand that if they never hedge, over a short period of time they will end up with MORE money than if they always hedge!
Someone else with a brain
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Quote Originally Posted by Ed-Collins:
It's probably because the average person's math skills equal that of a 5th grader. They don't understand hedging costs them money in the long run. They look at the "short run." They fail to understand that if they never hedge, over a short period of time they will end up with MORE money than if they always hedge!
Hedging is simply selling something for less than it is worth.
Yes. This is exactly what hedging is!
Here's a simple example of why "guaranteed" money is not always good.
It's late in the 4th quarter. Your team is up by a touchdown. Maybe more. If they win the game, the ticket in your hand will be worth $2,100.00. (Let's assume you bet $1,100 to win $1,000.)
I come along and offer to buy that ticket from you for $1,800.00. Do you sell it to me? If not, why not? It's guaranteed money! That ticket only cost you $1,100.00!
Depending upon the exact game conditions, (who has the ball and how much time is remaining and what the score is) yes, you'd be a fool to sell it to me. Because the ticket is most likely worth MORE than $1,800.00.
It's rarely ideal to sell something for less than what it is worth. This is true if you're selling a car or a house or whatever. And that's exactly what you're doing when you hedge.
If you always hedge you will win money 100% of the time. If I never hedge I will only win money 50% of the time. (When my final leg wins. When it doesn't I win nothing.) And yet in a short period of time, I will have more money than you! When I win, I win more than twice what you win!
Hedging comes at a price. You have to pay that price. You're paying extra juice when you hedge.
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Quote Originally Posted by Lethargic_Budah:
Hedging is simply selling something for less than it is worth.
Yes. This is exactly what hedging is!
Here's a simple example of why "guaranteed" money is not always good.
It's late in the 4th quarter. Your team is up by a touchdown. Maybe more. If they win the game, the ticket in your hand will be worth $2,100.00. (Let's assume you bet $1,100 to win $1,000.)
I come along and offer to buy that ticket from you for $1,800.00. Do you sell it to me? If not, why not? It's guaranteed money! That ticket only cost you $1,100.00!
Depending upon the exact game conditions, (who has the ball and how much time is remaining and what the score is) yes, you'd be a fool to sell it to me. Because the ticket is most likely worth MORE than $1,800.00.
It's rarely ideal to sell something for less than what it is worth. This is true if you're selling a car or a house or whatever. And that's exactly what you're doing when you hedge.
If you always hedge you will win money 100% of the time. If I never hedge I will only win money 50% of the time. (When my final leg wins. When it doesn't I win nothing.) And yet in a short period of time, I will have more money than you! When I win, I win more than twice what you win!
Hedging comes at a price. You have to pay that price. You're paying extra juice when you hedge.
Hedging in the nfl is hard.. Barely exists this year... Only teasers i see hitting is if you tease down an over on prime time games with some sunday games early before they go up... Otherwise alot of teasers have been getting smashed as of late... Its either a tight game or its a double digit margin... Teasers have been irrelevant.. So dont hedge this angle... Unless if you feel like buying insurance to insure another sucker bet like parlays then you might want to tease... Even then you should know which way the line is going to move early on... The public loves the overs and the public always bets late... So if you like overs... Always take it early to get the best number...
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Hedging in the nfl is hard.. Barely exists this year... Only teasers i see hitting is if you tease down an over on prime time games with some sunday games early before they go up... Otherwise alot of teasers have been getting smashed as of late... Its either a tight game or its a double digit margin... Teasers have been irrelevant.. So dont hedge this angle... Unless if you feel like buying insurance to insure another sucker bet like parlays then you might want to tease... Even then you should know which way the line is going to move early on... The public loves the overs and the public always bets late... So if you like overs... Always take it early to get the best number...
I'm a crazy gb fan and I'm worried they're looking to the nfc north matchup they have the week after against the bears. Be nice, give Bree's his home win (after a L of course) Go back to lambeau beat up on the bears then best up the eagles, which then leaves GB in a 7-3 spot. Then they've got a few easy W's after that too... The path seems too easy.
See how the pack goes to Seattle, tries for a little bit then shuts her down and barely does much....knowing they had other games to prep for, bigger divisional games. Same with in Detroit. Tried a little, saw Detroit came prepared and then GB relaxed off. Next few weeks they destroy every team.
This just calls for an L and I love the pack.
But remember even if they lose this one, R-E-L-A-X because Aaron's got more shows on the way.
If my lean is completely wrong pls tell me why...
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I'm a crazy gb fan and I'm worried they're looking to the nfc north matchup they have the week after against the bears. Be nice, give Bree's his home win (after a L of course) Go back to lambeau beat up on the bears then best up the eagles, which then leaves GB in a 7-3 spot. Then they've got a few easy W's after that too... The path seems too easy.
See how the pack goes to Seattle, tries for a little bit then shuts her down and barely does much....knowing they had other games to prep for, bigger divisional games. Same with in Detroit. Tried a little, saw Detroit came prepared and then GB relaxed off. Next few weeks they destroy every team.
This just calls for an L and I love the pack.
But remember even if they lose this one, R-E-L-A-X because Aaron's got more shows on the way.
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Someone else with a brain
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