Week 9

Bucs up to +6.5 currently and may get to that key number of 7 by game time after all. This may be a possibility as well LC don't you think? It appears that Carolina is getting some high action at home as of late this afternoon.

He would sprinkle ML if he wanted to play outright win... 

I like the Rams to continue their winning streak and get to 9-0. The key to beating the Rams this year is with a defensive minded coach and a strong rush defense / linebacking group that can slow down Todd Gurley. Gurley opens up everything the Rams like to do on offense in terms of the passing game and the play action game. The Saints have the #1 rush defense in the league, so New Orleans looks like a great matchup for them on paper right? 

No, that #1 rush defense is extremely misleading. Let’s look at who the Saints have faced in terms of running backs so far this year:

• Peyton Barber
• Carlos Hyde
• They faced the Falcons when Devonte Freeman was out of the lineup
• Redskins tandem of Chris Thompson and Adrian Petersen - solid duo, however, both RBs got injured in the first half and both left the game for good early in the game.
• Alex Collins
• This past week they faced the Vikings with Dalvin Cook out of the lineup

The one RB in the league they have seen that is a legit threat and had to scheme for on defense, was Saquon Barkley. And the inept coaching staff of the Giants ran him 10 times and let Eli Manning throw the ball 41 times (sums up the Giants season for ya). 

The Saints have been known to have a bad secondary for a long time now, but perception is their defense has gotten better due to their rush defense being vastly improved. As we see above, that’s not entirely true. The Saints #1 rush defense, equates to #19th in adjusted rush defense in my rankings. Plus, the Saints pass defense is ranked #30th in terms of yards per play. Outside of CB Lattimore becoming a growing star and a few other pieces, the Saints defense is highly overrated - and they haven’t faced anyone remotely close to the level of Todd Gurley yet. #19th ranked rush defense and #30th ranked pass defense is going to slow down the #1 offensive efficiency team in the NFL? I highly doubt that. 

The market is vastly overvaluing the Saints and I look to take advantage in this matchup. I like the Rams to win this one comfortably.

Above taken from LCs other thread as to answer your above question regarding why LC likes the Rams.