What underdog wins SU in the divisional round?

Going with the Redskins 

kind of an interesting take…

So you give Houston zero credit for forcing and successfully intercepting him? Like they were just standing around like cones and the ball magically fell into their hands by Herbert.

Kansas City is on upset alert. this year’s Kansas City is last year’s Eagles. Worse than their record indicates. Benefitted from positive variance all year and probably should realistically have at least three additional losses added to their record. Not saying Houston is good but Houston with all those points might be the best bet of the day and I think this is a field goal at the end either way. Likely KC but would not be shocked if this was the year KC gets pinched.

I dont think this is Detroits year. I think Jayden gets this win but then gets destroyed by Philly. I think Philly wins the super bowl this year or KC.

Have to be weary of the hype involved. The NFL asks ESPN (and other outlets) to promote certain personalities, stories (and to ignore others). Opinions are made by Finebaum (who hyped Travis Hunter and Deion, etc, also the SEC....) or Stephen A. (all sports, but follows the NBA storylines that the league wants promoted, LeBron, etc), and also Caitlin Clark ad nauseum, until you start watching WNBA....) but also regular stories appear in the feeds of all consumers of sports info, and Jayden Daniels is obviously being hyped. No, the games aren't fixed to promote athletes or teams, etc, but the attention is part of the whole entertainment scene......

Just have to look at the amount of stories and how persistent they are..about one athlete and know for certain the league wants to back this story (certainly Kelce and his Taylor Swift romance were welded together on every KC broadcast...)

I don't think Wash can stay within two scores if Detroit plays defense like they did vs the Vikings. If.....This is the Lions' decision, not Jayden's.

I hear ya but I have watched a lot of Jayden since his college years. I feel Detroits defense will not match up well with Jayden. He is a slippery little snake. Rookie QB's will always get a lot of attention but from what I see its Lamar this and Lamar that. However, the Bills about to shut that little story up for the year. I capped this game with a good chance the Redskins have this. Its not a bad bet and neither is the Bills. Too many distracted with the Texans LMAO!!!

I would also like to add, Jayden in a few years will have to learn to stay in the pocket more and be a pure passer. His lanky build will not hold up to the harsh elements of NFL contact if he keeps running or doesnt bulk up. Why they let this kid be a stick man out there is beyond me. Thats always been my concern with him is his durability. Only time will tell.

Just one man's opinion.

I won't bet it, but I think if the Rams can score early a few times, Hurts might have to do something he doesn't want to do which is go aerial. The Bills/Ravens is pretty much an even match as far as public perception goes. Can the Bills defend the run especially in the second half? 

@lonetreejj

 The Rams have given up less than 10 points in 4 of their last 5 games. Study past statistics for years and you won’t find another team that has accomplished that. 

People are smoking crack if they think going into frigid ahh Philly and facing their defense (and a RB who already set a franchise rushing record against them) is going to be anything like facing Darnold in Arizona.

Eagles defense is number 1 vs the pass. Minnesota's was 28th. The feel good story was nice but this is a different animal altogether. Stafford looked like he was playing catch with one of his fifteen kids in his own backyard last week it was comical how open guys were. Green Bay was probably a better team than the Rams are, they average 50 yards more per game overall and only 5 less per game through the air. The Packers ranked 10 spots higher in pass defense and 14 higher in rush defense and they were about the same in sacks but yeah I'm sure they'll get 9 sacks again vs probably the best Oline in the NFL and a team that leads the NFL in rush attempts about 36 a game with a mobile QB who has more than one good WR to throw to.

Don’t let recency bias fool you guys into thinking LA has a chance in Philly. their performance against MINN was a fluke , I mean Darnold choked lol. They will run the ball down the Rams throat and control time of possession. Easy dub for eagles. The -6 line is Joe blow public who seen them blow Minnesotas doors off

Rams are the public dog

From actionnetwork.com 

 We are likely to see both the Chiefs and Lions close as 7+ pt favorites. We haven’t seen two or more 7+ pt favorites go undefeated ATS in the Divisional Round since 2001, 16 different years in that span we had 2 or more big favorites play in this round without a 2-0 ATS round.

  On the other side, we haven’t seen two 7+ pt favorites lose outright in the Divisional Round since 2007-08 (IND vs SD and DAL vs NYG). In the Super Bowl era, we’ve never had two or more 7+ pt favorites in a Divisional Round and not have at least one win outright and advance.

What happens when you throw in the bye week with the 7+? 

@Interstellar

People should go back and watch that PHI/LAR game drive for drive. Barkley isn’t going to have 72 and 70 yard touchdowns this time around. I think they’re the dog that gets most close to winning and I think it’ll be through making Hurts have to find a way that will force PHI into losing their backers a bit of money 

Houston's not as good as last week would indicate. They were my top play of the wild card round, mainly because I felt the Bolts' might've peaked too soon and were playing their third straight roadie. Last week KC would've been a double digit fav so there's some value in this line. Throw in a very chilly weather forecast and I just don't see the warm weather Texans winning here. Same with the Rams, who will be playing in near freezing temps in Philly, and were blown out at home by this same Eagles team earlier in the season. 

like the Bills shut them down the first time.....

damn dude pull ur head outta ur ass....

35-10  TRAMPLED THEM...

@bigred84

 Henry had a huge day. 199 yards is very hard to do in the NFL. Lamas wasn't the difference. Actually Josh Allen's poor showing just had them punting early in the game.....never were in it after the 2nd qtr.

Bills ought to stay close in the 1st H, being at home this time.

This game will be a full legit war, and not a blowout dull win like that game in September. Baltimore will stay within reach, or cqtch up if behind, but I dont believe they dominate again.

Josh Allen has been in the League so long now, we all can see how in the same season he shows a bumpy ride against the same opponents---bad against the Patriots, then looks like a HOF-er; or against the Steelers...., the Ravens, too. Don't have to worry about Allen showing up here.

@begginerboy

+ Since 2003, home teams in the Divisional Round coming off a bye are 33-42-1 ATS (44%), including 3-5 ATS since 2020 (KC, DET). As a favorite of 7+ pts off a bye, they are 17-24-1 ATS (42%).
When the road team is coming into the round on a road trip (2nd road game or later), the team on the bye is still 15-22-1 ATS (41%) (DET)

+ Teams with a bye in the playoffs entering the Divisional Round are cashing at a 44% ATS rate since 2003. If you combine the Super Bowl and Divisional Round, favorites off a bye week in the playoffs are 37-56-1 ATS (40%) in that span (KC, DET).

+ Road teams that missed the playoffs last year are 28-14 ATS (66%) in the Divisional Round over the past 20 years. Those same teams are 40-43-1 ATS (48%) in all other rounds of the playoffs.

+ Teams to win as an underdog in the Wild Card round are 7-28 SU and 16-19 ATS in the Divisional Round over the past 20 years. Since 2011, those teams are 2-20 SU and 10-12 ATS.

@bigred84

 So you are a fan. Fair enough

True watch all there games.....

Defense much better last 6 weeks....

21 Stephens is a bad cover corner....

He needs help...

But if Flowers can go this offense gets scary good...

No answer yet...not until Saturday.....

Ravens want another shot at Mahomes...

@CaridadDelCobre

 Kansas City is on upset alert. this year’s Kansas City is last year’s Eagles. Worse than their record indicates. 

Last years Eagles team had SB loser weight on their back.....down the back stretch it was a lost locker room, no unity and defensively were one of the worst teams in the league.  They lost 5 of their last 6 games straight up with 6 straight ATS loses.  Lost their division lead then got waxed when they had to go on the road in the WC game.  

KC is a back to back, 3 time SB champion and has tremendous leadership top to bottom, players and coaches.  Won 6 straight and 3 straight ATS to lock up the 1 seed with the Bills hot on their tail.  Defensively a top 10 team here in the playoffs and have the 2nd best QB in nfl playoff history.  

This KC may be "worse" than their 15-2 record indicates, I will not argue that, but by no means are they "this year's Eagles".  

watch the first matchup......

that's what the Eagles did to the Spams...

none 

Young and Carolina gave Philly something to consider...

Since it's been a public favorites season. I wouldn't be surprised all 4 favorites won SU.

A dropped TD pass to Leggette from winning the game outright..