All Forums | NFL Betting

Where is the sharp $ tonight?

...
Participants:
Search model icon
Views: 5529
Posts: 55
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2009
Posts: 2627
Posted: #26
Quote Originally Posted by BOLIonthestreet:

Tim

Idk why you are laughing at me....I said this game is a no bet game.
 
MVP
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2009
Posts: 16153
Posted: #27
under
 
Hall of Fame
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2010
Posts: 26741
Posted: #28
take these numbers and multiply it by 100 at least. When I worked at Caesars our average handle on a Monday Night game between all 7 properties was about 5 million. Dont kid yourself there is most likely more like 100-120 million riding on this game
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2012
Posts: 1660
Posted: #29
Tim can u please. Please. Give me the site

Thanks
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2011
Posts: 793
Posted: #30
You guys are all f. Ucking idiots.
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2011
Posts: 782
Posted: #31
Tim I like your discussion... I see the Raiders controlling clock. and going in the over...late 4th. GL bro
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2009
Posts: 2627
Posted: #32
Quote Originally Posted by VegasVandal:

take these numbers and multiply it by 100 at least. When I worked at Caesars our average handle on a Monday Night game between all 7 properties was about 5 million. Dont kid yourself there is most likely more like 100-120 million riding on this game

The point isn't to find every dollar bet on the game.  It's to show betting tendencies.  Showing where the money is going with over 11,000 bets has statistical significance.

It's like all the medical studies that come out.  They do tests on 1,000 people and say "most likely if you do this, THAT will happen."  They obviously didn't ask or test every single person in the country.  Duh.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2013
Posts: 37
Posted: #33
I know that sharps were hitting the OVER when it was down to 47.5 -- I cant get it at my book that low anymore. Lowest i'm seeing is 49 now. I'm staying away from the -17 too, sheesh. Too many points to lay. Im taking the UNDER at 49 points as a small play
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2009
Posts: 2627
Posted: #34
Quote Originally Posted by DaSaltySluG:

Tim I like your discussion... I see the Raiders controlling clock. and going in the over...late 4th. GL bro

Thank you and that's exactly what this is suppose to be...a discussion.  I never once told people to bet a certain way based on the money figures.  People just need to relax in the world 
 
Hall of Fame
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2010
Posts: 26741
Posted: #35
Quote Originally Posted by TimTowner:


The point isn't to find every dollar bet on the game.  It's to show betting tendencies.  Showing where the money is going with over 11,000 bets has statistical significance.

It's like all the medical studies that come out.  They do tests on 1,000 people and say "most likely if you do this, THAT will happen."  They obviously didn't ask or test every single person in the country.  Duh.


Well then since you think you know about statistics you should know that there is a very low probability that a roughly 3% sample size of what you have presented here cannot have statistical significance to represent the entire population of bettors. Therefore you are not able to see where sharps are at tonight based off the numbers around the ~$2million dollar handle you posted. It would be nothing more than guesswork. What I will say is that sharps generally take DD dogs in the NFL or dont bet the game at all based off my experience
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2012
Posts: 9
Posted: #36
for everyone calling Tim stupid for using those numbers use common sense. this is the same concept as exit polling. you take a small sample and use it to represent the whole.. there is enough info coming from those numbers to assume that is how the majority of books look
 
Hall of Fame
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2007
Posts: 20647
Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by aKaGeeMan:

You guys are all f. Ucking idiots.


Yeah, and your the Einstein everybody's looking for in here.
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2011
Posts: 2008
Posted: #38

^tv ratings and commercial $$ are based on 5000 neilsen homes out of 110 million homes with a tv

that's a gillionth of a percent

 

 

 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2009
Posts: 2627
Posted: #39
Quote Originally Posted by VegasVandal:



Well then since you think you know about statistics you should know that there is a very low probability that a roughly 3% sample size of what you have presented here cannot have statistical significance to represent the entire population of bettors. Therefore you are not able to see where sharps are at tonight based off the numbers around the ~$2million dollar handle you posted. It would be nothing more than guesswork. What I will say is that sharps generally take DD dogs in the NFL or dont bet the game at all based off my experience

Denver has the PUBLIC bets and TOTAL money.  Sharp money would be a team with a majority of bets with LESS money than the opposing team.  I never once said Sharp money was on Denver.

And if you think Vegas would be different than the 20 online books (Bookmaker, 5Dimes, Pinnacle, Greek, etc) that this site uses, then fine.  But those sites definitely have big players.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2013
Posts: 19
Posted: #40
those numbers are irrelevant its irrational to to even believe you can just engine search betting wages percentage, seeing as there are millions of private bookies.and betting organizations. I HAVE A BETTER CHANCE ASKING MY NEIGHBORS WHAT THEY THINK
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2013
Posts: 19
Posted: #41
THAT BEING SAID WHY WOULD U EVER BET AGAINST PAYTON!!!!!! he is A TITAN among HUMANS on the FIELD
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2009
Posts: 2627
Posted: #42
For those of you who care, the latest numbers are:

Oakland - $854,370  ($165 average a game)

Denver - $1,548, 111  ($219 average a game)

12,247 bets were used for these numbers.
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2009
Posts: 2627
Posted: #43
Quote Originally Posted by Javierbaez001:

those numbers are irrelevant its irrational to to even believe you can just engine search betting wages percentage, seeing as there are millions of private bookies.and betting organizations. I HAVE A BETTER CHANCE ASKING MY NEIGHBORS WHAT THEY THINK

If you're neighbor is so smart, why are you even in the Covers forum? lol
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2008
Posts: 962
Posted: #44
Quote Originally Posted by TimTowner:


Denver has the PUBLIC bets and TOTAL money.  Sharp money would be a team with a majority of bets with LESS money than the opposing team.  I never once said Sharp money was on Denver.

And if you think Vegas would be different than the 20 online books (Bookmaker, 5Dimes, Pinnacle, Greek, etc) that this site uses, then fine.  But those sites definitely have big players.


I appreciate the info. Ignore all the bashers. Like someone else said, it's the same idea as exit polling, which tends to be pretty accurate. Even a small percentage of the demographics tends to have pretty reliable representation. If you guys think the numbers are irrelevent, IGNORE THEM! Nobody is forcing you to pay attention.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Jul, 2013
Posts: 184
Posted: #45
OVER and OAK cover 6-1 ats on road vs denver, who knows !
#bayarearepresent
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2011
Posts: 782
Posted: #46
Quote Originally Posted by TimTowner:


Thank you and that's exactly what this is suppose to be...a discussion.  I never once told people to bet a certain way based on the money figures.  People just need to relax in the world 


Always that handful of idiots on every forum site... #jussayin
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2001
Posts: 997
Posted: #47

Getting the number of bets is available at pregame.com

I am not aware of any site that gives the actual dollar amount bet.  Are you estimating these numbers based on the number of bets somehow?

 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2001
Posts: 997
Posted: #48

 

I show 70% of total bets on Denver - very typical, very square.

However, once the line touched +17.5, the line immediately reversed back to +17 within about 15 minutes.  So what does it mean?

Looks to me like the public pounding a Monday night public favorite from -14 all the way to -17.5.  Sharps liked the dog at +17.5 and fired away, driving the line back to +17.

Squares on Denver all the way to -17.  Sharps on Oakland at +17.5

Can't get +17.5 anymore so the game is a pass

 

Quote Originally Posted by VegasVandal:



Well then since you think you know about statistics you should know that there is a very low probability that a roughly 3% sample size of what you have presented here cannot have statistical significance to represent the entire population of bettors. Therefore you are not able to see where sharps are at tonight based off the numbers around the ~$2million dollar handle you posted. It would be nothing more than guesswork. What I will say is that sharps generally take DD dogs in the NFL or dont bet the game at all based off my experience

 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2001
Posts: 997
Posted: #49

 

Since you did not perform a p value calculation, how can you make comments on what is an adequate sample size and what is not?  It may be adequate.  There is no way to know without doing the math.

Quote Originally Posted by combato:

 
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2001
Posts: 997
Posted: #50

Two sided Fishers exact is the calculation that needs to be done to determine the p value and thus telling us the likelihood of the results being due to random events ( ie chance).

Quote Originally Posted by combato:

All Forums | NFL Betting
About Us
Contact Us
Careers
Our Team
Brand
Testimonials
Betting Guides
Sportsbook Reviews
Sports Betting News
Podcasts
Responsible Gaming
Sports Betting
US Betting Sites
Canada Betting Sites
Canada Casinos
Best Betting Apps
Contests
Streak Survivor
King of Covers
Ultimate Race
Office Pools
The Covers community has
618,670
lifetime members worldwide
Covers 25 Years Logo Established in 1995,
Covers is the world
leader in sports
betting information.
Site Map Help Privacy Terms of Service youtube logo facebook logo twitter logo instagram logo linkedin logo google news logo
Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo
Copyright © 1995 - 2024 CS Media Limited All Rights Reserved.

If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.