Posted:
#26
Hey buddy, I can't speak to the spread, as I have the Colts teased to -3, and your reasoning is sound as heck (you probably know more about these teams than the coaches:), but I the intangibles (imo) favor the Colts. Here are some trends to ponder:
Teams that lost their opening game on the road bounce back at a 28-15 SU & 30-12-1 ATS (71.4%) rate when playing at home in Week 2 over the L5 seasons. (+16.8 units, R.O.I.: 40%, Rating: 7*)
2015 Potential Plays: Play ON NEW ORLEANS, PITTSBURGH, MINNESOTA, CLEVELAND, NY GIANTS, PHILADELPHIA, & INDIANAPOLIS
Week 2 teams playing as favorites or underdogs of less than 3 points against an opponent that scored more than 30 points in the prior week are 28-6 SU & 24-7-3 ATS (77.4%) since '03 (+16.3 units, R.O.I.: 52.5%, Rating: 8*)
2015 Potential Plays: Play ON CLEVELAND, WASHINGTON, INDIANAPOLIS, GREEN BAY, & CHICAGO (note: SD & CIN cancel each other out)
Again, I have the Colts teased to -3, so I'm dealing with a different animal. The other thing I have to say, regarding intangibles, is "Luck," in more ways than one. We saw what Manning, Brady and Rodgers did this week to very good defensive teams (with few offensive weapons). The great ones have a way of doing that. I know your opinion of Luck is not high, but I do consider him to be a great one and one of the faces of the league. This last fact is important because officiating will also play a role in the outcome. Call it home cooking or whatever you want (we some of it in last night's game) but If the Jets get called for holding penalties in the secondary, that will help loosen up that defense.
As always, Good luck!
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