As promised, I am trying to get these up early. I will update Friday evening with final spreads and units, including weather and injuries - but it will be very close to this.
Included a column for line moves, and units accordingly.
I will be around to write-up / discuss all. Just wanted to get them up early.
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13
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
As promised, I am trying to get these up early. I will update Friday evening with final spreads and units, including weather and injuries - but it will be very close to this.
Included a column for line moves, and units accordingly.
[Quote: Originally Posted by ndsent1]@vanzack Good luck this coming weekend Van. You truly are one of the best here on covers no doubt. Let’s get it my man.
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[Quote: Originally Posted by ndsent1]@vanzack Good luck this coming weekend Van. You truly are one of the best here on covers no doubt. Let’s get it my man.
DVOA last 6 games (nfl rank): Pass Offense 15 Rush Offense 15 Pass Defense 30 Rush Defense 30
Honestly, if you took the green uniform off and just looked at their stats, you would be amazed they are in the playoffs. This is a classic name only team on a huge late season slide that is deserved - with tons of injuries and the looks of a team that has already packed it in. Their defense is ATTROCIOUS.
The only hope the Eagles have is to put up a big number - because the Bucs are going to score. How are they going to do that? Bucs defense in last 6 is 9/8 (pass/rush) in the NFL.
I'm just not seeing how the Eagles can win on either side of the ball. You are getting the better offense, better defense, healthier team by a mile - as a dog.
Sign me up.
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Quote Originally Posted by Theasscritic:
Good work this year mr.vanzack , stay hot sir As for your TBAY ? play why do you like them ? im all over PHILLY -2.5
You must not be a numbers person or care about recent statistics....
DVOA last 6 games (nfl rank): Pass Offense 15 Rush Offense 15 Pass Defense 30 Rush Defense 30
Honestly, if you took the green uniform off and just looked at their stats, you would be amazed they are in the playoffs. This is a classic name only team on a huge late season slide that is deserved - with tons of injuries and the looks of a team that has already packed it in. Their defense is ATTROCIOUS.
The only hope the Eagles have is to put up a big number - because the Bucs are going to score. How are they going to do that? Bucs defense in last 6 is 9/8 (pass/rush) in the NFL.
I'm just not seeing how the Eagles can win on either side of the ball. You are getting the better offense, better defense, healthier team by a mile - as a dog.
Iggles are next to dead last in defensive pass rank efficiency, 29th overall defensively. Baker has been to playoffs before and played well. Evans and Godwin will eat up that defense. Philly averaging 20 ppg in their 1-5 slide to end the year while giving up 30 ppg. Wrong team favored imho
America First
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Iggles are next to dead last in defensive pass rank efficiency, 29th overall defensively. Baker has been to playoffs before and played well. Evans and Godwin will eat up that defense. Philly averaging 20 ppg in their 1-5 slide to end the year while giving up 30 ppg. Wrong team favored imho
@vanzack Agree with all of them except Steelers. I know it's a big number but without TJ Watt they are a different team. Rudolph has been a major improvement for the Steelers, but in his first playoff game I can see him turning into a pumpkin.
A lot to do with high winds, and Buffalo really having issues stopping the run since their injuries on defense (26th in NFL adjusted against the run last 7 games).
I get it. It is a real hold your nose type of bet, but I just think the steelers can shorten the game and stay within the number.
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3
Quote Originally Posted by JuicedUp:
@vanzack Agree with all of them except Steelers. I know it's a big number but without TJ Watt they are a different team. Rudolph has been a major improvement for the Steelers, but in his first playoff game I can see him turning into a pumpkin.
A lot to do with high winds, and Buffalo really having issues stopping the run since their injuries on defense (26th in NFL adjusted against the run last 7 games).
I get it. It is a real hold your nose type of bet, but I just think the steelers can shorten the game and stay within the number.
All true sir , the eagles have looked like chumps the last 6 , the bucs last 2 games which were very very big were not exactly solid outings for them
im more of a MATCHUP guy than a numbers guy
I believe Philly has too much POP in the trenches for tbay ,
that was illustrated in the previous meeting when after 3 quarters of play Philly had 400 yards to Tampa’s 100 YARDS ( roughly )
I cap from the inside out , the trenches being the inside obviously
I love this matchup , it really frees up the offensive skilled players on philly and the rest of the Philly d also has more freedom because the eagles will WIN upfront
The bucs offense is rather SOFT in my view , it all stars with their oline , the eagles still have some JUICE upfront on both sides to CONTROL this game
the eagles were knocked out of the playoffs in tbay a couple years ago
I know they remember that loss
good luck with the rest of your plays and keep doing what your doing
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All true sir , the eagles have looked like chumps the last 6 , the bucs last 2 games which were very very big were not exactly solid outings for them
im more of a MATCHUP guy than a numbers guy
I believe Philly has too much POP in the trenches for tbay ,
that was illustrated in the previous meeting when after 3 quarters of play Philly had 400 yards to Tampa’s 100 YARDS ( roughly )
I cap from the inside out , the trenches being the inside obviously
I love this matchup , it really frees up the offensive skilled players on philly and the rest of the Philly d also has more freedom because the eagles will WIN upfront
The bucs offense is rather SOFT in my view , it all stars with their oline , the eagles still have some JUICE upfront on both sides to CONTROL this game
the eagles were knocked out of the playoffs in tbay a couple years ago
I know they remember that loss
good luck with the rest of your plays and keep doing what your doing
Understand. I was on Philly in week 3. It was a big play for me.
This is a totally different game. Not sure how you can be confident of winning trench battles when they recently got dominated in the trenches by Arizona and the Giants.
I think the way the Eagles can win is by getting out in front early, and forcing the Bucs to be one dimensional and if the Eagles running game is working. I just dont see that happening.
GL
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@Theasscritic
Understand. I was on Philly in week 3. It was a big play for me.
This is a totally different game. Not sure how you can be confident of winning trench battles when they recently got dominated in the trenches by Arizona and the Giants.
I think the way the Eagles can win is by getting out in front early, and forcing the Bucs to be one dimensional and if the Eagles running game is working. I just dont see that happening.
already been said in a post above, but there's no reason to bet on Philly here. Baker is injured and playing terrible but Philly appears to be in freefall.
Hard to look at their recent meeting since Stroud didnt play but Flacco torched them pretty badly. It's very hard to back a rookie QB (Stroud) and rookie coach (DeMeco) in the playoffs. Historically a bad position to be in
* Steelers +9.75 (2.5 units) 10.5 (3), 8 (2)
Tomlin voodoo strikes again. Too many points for Buffalo with less rest and more travel.
* Cowboys -7.5 (2 units) -8 (1.5), -7 (2.5)
no idea. Dallas didnt beat any good teams by more than 7 this year but inexperienced coach/qb here for GB makes it hard to trust they can keep up.
I think both teams could score 30+
* Dolphins +4.5 (2 units) 5 (2.5), 3.5 (1.5)
Miami really didnt beat anyone good outside of Dallas (who cant beat anyone good on the road). Fins got destroyed at Buff and at Balt and were down 21-0 to KC earlier this year at Arrowhead. Doesnt bode well here with a warm weather team in cold weather that cant beat good teams on the road. Will Mostert play? OTOH, it's hard to lay points with a KC team that cant catch a cold.
* Rams +3.25 (1 unit) 3.5 (1.5), 2.5 (no bet)
I hope so.
No one should care what I think. I'm just spewing my thoughts right now in a respected capper's thread. I dont mind Van's plays outside of Miami. I just cant back them on the road here against the experienced duo of Mahomies/Reid.
3
* Bucs +3 (4 units) 3.5 (4.5), 2.5 (3)
already been said in a post above, but there's no reason to bet on Philly here. Baker is injured and playing terrible but Philly appears to be in freefall.
Hard to look at their recent meeting since Stroud didnt play but Flacco torched them pretty badly. It's very hard to back a rookie QB (Stroud) and rookie coach (DeMeco) in the playoffs. Historically a bad position to be in
* Steelers +9.75 (2.5 units) 10.5 (3), 8 (2)
Tomlin voodoo strikes again. Too many points for Buffalo with less rest and more travel.
* Cowboys -7.5 (2 units) -8 (1.5), -7 (2.5)
no idea. Dallas didnt beat any good teams by more than 7 this year but inexperienced coach/qb here for GB makes it hard to trust they can keep up.
I think both teams could score 30+
* Dolphins +4.5 (2 units) 5 (2.5), 3.5 (1.5)
Miami really didnt beat anyone good outside of Dallas (who cant beat anyone good on the road). Fins got destroyed at Buff and at Balt and were down 21-0 to KC earlier this year at Arrowhead. Doesnt bode well here with a warm weather team in cold weather that cant beat good teams on the road. Will Mostert play? OTOH, it's hard to lay points with a KC team that cant catch a cold.
* Rams +3.25 (1 unit) 3.5 (1.5), 2.5 (no bet)
I hope so.
No one should care what I think. I'm just spewing my thoughts right now in a respected capper's thread. I dont mind Van's plays outside of Miami. I just cant back them on the road here against the experienced duo of Mahomies/Reid.
I think the Dolphins will have some success running the ball on the Chiefs. Couple that with very cold (hopefully) windy weather, and I can see them hanging around and maybe winning.
The chiefs are no prize here either. Very average team.
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2
@jefff
Great comments - appreciated.
I think the Dolphins will have some success running the ball on the Chiefs. Couple that with very cold (hopefully) windy weather, and I can see them hanging around and maybe winning.
The chiefs are no prize here either. Very average team.
KC is 1-4 against playoff teams this season. So both teams only have 1 win vs a playoff team this season....Only win was vs the Dolphins in Germany 21-14, the difference being a Tyreke Hill Fumble return TD 10 point swing to end the 2nd half when dolphins were at minimum going to get a FG to make it 14-3...
Mayweather bet 450000 on
0
@jefff
KC is 1-4 against playoff teams this season. So both teams only have 1 win vs a playoff team this season....Only win was vs the Dolphins in Germany 21-14, the difference being a Tyreke Hill Fumble return TD 10 point swing to end the 2nd half when dolphins were at minimum going to get a FG to make it 14-3...
One minor note in the KC/MIA game. Their first matchup was neutral site over in Germany, played indoors. If you would like a breakdown on that game @davemsh is the man to get it from, just ask him....
America First
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@jefff
appreciate you sharing the thoughts here Jeff
One minor note in the KC/MIA game. Their first matchup was neutral site over in Germany, played indoors. If you would like a breakdown on that game @davemsh is the man to get it from, just ask him....
I heard via a little birdie that Patrick Maholmes under 45 degree temperature is 10-1 Su and 9-2 ATS or someone like that..U can ask Kcblitzkrieg.....He knows Maholmes middle name as well..So I heard...Interesting..
Mayweather bet 450000 on
1
@jefff
I heard via a little birdie that Patrick Maholmes under 45 degree temperature is 10-1 Su and 9-2 ATS or someone like that..U can ask Kcblitzkrieg.....He knows Maholmes middle name as well..So I heard...Interesting..
@vanzack Zonas offense poses different challenges to the Philly d in comparison to the bucs offense that all starts with murray and his ATHLETICISM, that opens up more space eagles don’t have to worry about that with baker and that simplifies things on defense The giants game I just tossed out the window , eagles didn’t look interested to me time for my power nap , take care
Goodnight, sweet prince.
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1
Quote Originally Posted by Theasscritic:
@vanzack Zonas offense poses different challenges to the Philly d in comparison to the bucs offense that all starts with murray and his ATHLETICISM, that opens up more space eagles don’t have to worry about that with baker and that simplifies things on defense The giants game I just tossed out the window , eagles didn’t look interested to me time for my power nap , take care
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