Wildcard

Miami +4.5 - would like the under in this as well, 20-17 type game either way and wouldn’t be surprised if Miami won outright. Miami is banged up on defense, and as weird as it is to say, KC is not efficient enough on offense to take full advantage of it. Waddle and Mosert back will help. The cold weather stuff I get, but also think it’s a bit over blown. Skyler Thompson almost beat the Bills last playoff…. it’s the playoffs, cold or not, they’re going full tilt, The Dolphins struggling to score in this game would be a result of the KC defense, not the cold temps. Pacheco on the ground and in the air will be the bell cow for KC’s offense, a dip and dunk game. Truly think it’s a toss up and A close game nonetheless. 

Detroit ML (x5) - The Rams are coming into the playoffs hot and seem to be a “favorite” in terms of the underdogs this weekend, at least nationally, not necessarily with the books. And I get it, well balanced offense and Detroits back end has been gashed. One thing Detroits defense has done lately however is get turnovers and Stafford, more so than Goff, has a propensity to throw a pick.. The Rams are however (1-6) against playoff teams, that is NOT counting the SF win as starters on both sides were sat. There is lots of young players, playing important roles on the field for both teams, with 2 QBs who’ve been here before… Detroit seems to amp it up and play their best ball when the lights are shining the brightest and it will be an insane environment that they will feed off. With Detroits O-line being able to control the game of front, and the pre-snap movement Detroit does, against a young defense, trying to communicate in that environment will be challenging. La Porta is a big deal, but every time an offensive piece has missed a game, (St.Brown, Gibbs, Montgomery, Jamo) you wouldn’t have noticed during the game.. Ben Johnson is a hot commodity for a reason. 

@Moonstormsnow

Good analysis. What about the Rams and Lions  respective performances against Baltimore?

Rams took them to OT and probably should’ve won that game. Detroit got their a**es kicked.  

Would also argue Stafford is much more trustworthy in a playoff game than Goff (who IMO is way more likely than Stafford to throw an errant pick) Rams are also fully healthy on O. 

Last two points to consider — McVey knows all of Goff’s tendencies and weaknesses — which should give Rams some advantage. And who do you trust more in a playoff game - McVey or Dan Campbell? 

@Mangowoman

 McVay is the more polished “head coach” here, and I’ve got nothing bad to say about him at at all, proven winner.. but in terms of This particular game, I’m not sure it’s a simplistic answer…. As I stated, lots of young players in this game, young players respond to motivation, and Campbell will have them very amped up when this thing starts, it’s been beaten to death, but it is true, that players love him..

now in game, I think Mcvsy clearly has the edge, I think everyone would say that.. but again, Campbell was next to Payton for many years, hence his aggressive nature, and he’s seen plenty of playoff football.. they faced each other in the NFC title game years back.. but I will say I think Campbell has to pick his spots in the playoffs, but will he is the question, so McVay is probably more trustworthy here.. 

Stafford, legit could be best arm in the league at least a few years ago.. I think he can and will make throws Goff can’t.. but I also think his arm talent makes him feel he can make any throw anytime snd that leads to forcing things.. the stats between them are very similar, so not saying I would take one over the other… just interception wise, I think it’s more likely with Stafford.. 

as far as the Baltimore game, I don’t really read into that stuff too much.. some weeks teams play better, it have off weeks, or players are out, back to back on the road, etc… the Ravens have also dismantled the 49ers(at San Fran), but I wouldn’t necessarily say I think the rams are better than them because the lost to a similar opponent by less.. 

 I just like the spot, the situation, the match up, it’s my favorite of the weekend, and rolling over the national championship winnings to this one.. that’s one of the reason for the more units. 

@Moonstormsnow

GL 

Added 

Bucs ML

@Moonstormsnow

 Play BUCs ML

GL

I didn't realize that. We've all been hearing every week about how good the Rams have been since Kyren Williams returned from his 4-game absence due to a sprained ankle, but this is the first time I've seen someone point out that the Rams had a terrible record this season against teams who wound up making the playoffs (and like Moonstormsnow mentioned, throwing out the regular season finale). Kyren Williams missed 3 of those 6 losses, but I'm not sure his presence would have made up the difference as the Rams failed to cover by 10 points in Week 7 against the Steelers, by 16.5 points in Week 8 against the Cowboys, and by 13.5 points in Week 9 against the Packers.

The Lions would be 4-2 this season against teams that made the playoffs if they hadn't been robbed of a 21-20 win in Dallas two weeks ago.

The league has been screwing over the Lions for at least a couple decades now.

Atta boy.

My feelings on this bet, is that it's the layup that no one is willing to see.

Since week 14, epa+cpoe Baker = 0.146. Jalen = 0.083. Defensive epa per play TB #14, Philly #30.

Yet the books are getting an even split on the bet %. How?! How are there enough people out there betting on a -3 road fav, one who's team name is the Eagles?

Good Luck 

@MrBator

 Think the Lions showed us they could hang around with playoff caliber teams in tough environments with that loss the the boys.

1-1, with the Bucs ML later 

added

Pitt +10.5 (half unit) , an action play

@Moonstormsnow