Eagles / Bucs: 9ish now, will float between 8.5 and 9.5 until kickoff
Bucs are banged up, but getting some key guys back for this matchup. Their offense is sneaky good - nobody is really talking about them as in the top 3 on offense in a lot of key categories. But you can run on the Bucs - and I am sure the Eagles will try to slow the game down - and run successfully. I dont like laying 9 in a game where if the Eagles can have success on the ground - they should lose but still either cover by a score or lose the cover by a score. I just have a feeling this is the game that comes down to one score with the spread - and I will likely not be on this in a major way. Wait and see.
Niners / Cowboys: I expect this will remain an expensive 3 or a cheap 3.5 all week - probably more likely to move to the favorite than the dog.
As I have already made known - I have the 49ers in a 43-1 future - because I do think they are one of the few teams that can go on a 4 game run now. They are statistically off the charts - but it all comes down to one thing.... Garrapolo turnovers, missed throws, and sacks. It is all about limiting his mistakes, and I am banking on the coaching staff realizing this at this point and designing a gameplan that allows the Niners to not get behind by more than a score - shortening the game - and playing great defense. The Niners weakness is in the secondary - so my fear is good Dak shows up and Josh Norman and company are getting beat downfield - but I have to take my chances with a team that is peaking at the right time. Totally PKem game for me - even in Dallas. I will be on the spread and ML for about 4 units total
Steelers / Chiefs: Opened at 13.5, down a point or so - might actually continue to come down to maybe 11.5 or so
There is only one side here to bet, and that is the Chiefs. The Steelers have very little pathways to winning here, and their specific problem is they cannot stop the run against a team and a coach that will design running plays to confuse and demoralize the Steelers defense. I dont see the Chiefs punting very often here. And the Steelers just wont be able to match points. I hate laying double digits anytime in the NFL, rarely do it - cant remember doing it in a playoff game - but I will here. Probably in the range of 2 units or maybe a little less.
@EastsideBangers
Yeah - regretting my decision now to cut and paste my original writeup. Going to cause confusion.
That was my thoughts on Wed.
Obviously now - it is an expensive 7 or a cheap 7.5.
Potentially very windy weather in Tampa today.
@Supersharpone
OK. Glad you asked.
I AM NEVER AFRAID OF THIS. I NEVER CARE WHAT SIDE HAS "PUBLIC MONEY", OR "MAJORITY OF MONEY".
I dont trust the numbers you see about wagering as accurate. In fact - I have been assured of this by some major people at major books that they quote. In fact - nobody at covers or anywhere has EVER shown me any kind of stats using those numbers of historical success or situations. NOBODY.
It is all BS. Public wins sometimes. Sharps win sometimes.
I do my capping - and trust it without getting distracted on things that dont matter.
TB/Filthy should be a battle of ball control. Last 8 weeks Eagles were most run heavy team in NFL. Bucs without Godwin, Brown, and Grayson have lost all of their outside speed. Expect them to use a short passing game as a means of methodically moving the chains. That and the weather set up for an under. Unfortunately sharp money vacuumed some of the value out of the number, but it's still well worth playing under 46.
@t6rider
Great to see you around....
I would think on a 1st qtr under you are hoping the Eagles get the ball first?
I am trying to go through in my head if I would have the cojones to bet a 1st qtr bet without knowing who would get the ball first.
GL today.
Liked SF early week and got +3.5 @ -105. You are spot on with Dallas - NFC East is abysmal, and SF has looked solid 2nd half of season.
Philly had a nice run, but it was Jets, WTF, NYG, and WTF to go from 4-7 to 8-7 and a playoff berth. TB will focus on run and make Hurts beat them thru air, which he simply cannot do. Like TB at -7 small play.
Don't like the 12.5 line, so prob just some props on the night game. KC could be in total control, and a late backdoor could screw over KC backers.
Thanks for posting - GL to you.
well...my concern here; is that the whole world is on the 49ers. therefore, i get it! bcuz they are a hot team entering playoffs and teams that come into playoffs hot normally do damage.. but back to my main concern is that even with every1 on sf... is that the line hasnt moved at all & is still at dall-3.. surely it would have moved atleast .5 of a point or so... no?
Established in 1995,
Hot Forum Topics
