Everyone in the world including Vegas, smart betters, dumb betters, casual fans, etc... ALL know the the Jets have a great run game, a top defense and a "lockdown" corner in Revis. Despite all these facts the oddsmakers put a line of 9 out.
Please don't think oddsmakers screwed up here. You aren't one of the privileged few who know about the Jets strength and you aren't getting a bargain. Oddsmakers set this line at 9 because they truly believe that the Chargers have the capability to blow them out.
The Jets are playing their 2nd playoff game in a row on the road, traveling across country, have a rookie QB who is mistake prone, are playing a rested and focused team who has been there before and will not have an answer if they fall even slightly behind and Rivers starts to apply pressure. This line opened at 9 because the Jets need to play perfectly to stay competitive and they are just not in a great spot IMO.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Everyone in the world including Vegas, smart betters, dumb betters, casual fans, etc... ALL know the the Jets have a great run game, a top defense and a "lockdown" corner in Revis. Despite all these facts the oddsmakers put a line of 9 out.
Please don't think oddsmakers screwed up here. You aren't one of the privileged few who know about the Jets strength and you aren't getting a bargain. Oddsmakers set this line at 9 because they truly believe that the Chargers have the capability to blow them out.
The Jets are playing their 2nd playoff game in a row on the road, traveling across country, have a rookie QB who is mistake prone, are playing a rested and focused team who has been there before and will not have an answer if they fall even slightly behind and Rivers starts to apply pressure. This line opened at 9 because the Jets need to play perfectly to stay competitive and they are just not in a great spot IMO.
I totally agree with you man........Funny line. The Chargers will put up some points and force the Jets to score quick.........Might have to cancel my Jets wager before gametime.......Rivers looks unstoppable right now and has alot of weapons...........He loves throwing it down the field......I really hate him, crazy respect for him
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I totally agree with you man........Funny line. The Chargers will put up some points and force the Jets to score quick.........Might have to cancel my Jets wager before gametime.......Rivers looks unstoppable right now and has alot of weapons...........He loves throwing it down the field......I really hate him, crazy respect for him
I totally agree with you man........Funny line. The Chargers will put up some points and force the Jets to score quick.........Might have to cancel my Jets wager before gametime.......Rivers looks unstoppable right now and has alot of weapons...........He loves throwing it down the field......I really hate him, crazy respect for him
same boat here. he is one annoying SOB but so damn good
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Quote Originally Posted by Bruuuuce78:
I totally agree with you man........Funny line. The Chargers will put up some points and force the Jets to score quick.........Might have to cancel my Jets wager before gametime.......Rivers looks unstoppable right now and has alot of weapons...........He loves throwing it down the field......I really hate him, crazy respect for him
same boat here. he is one annoying SOB but so damn good
Everyone in the world including Vegas, smart betters, dumb betters, casual fans, etc... ALL know the the Jets have a great run game, a top defense and a "lockdown" corner in Revis. Despite all these facts the oddsmakers put a line of 9 out.
books set a line with the intent of equalizing the amount of money they take on either side. it has nothing to do with what they think of how the teams match up.
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Quote Originally Posted by ratherBgambling:
Everyone in the world including Vegas, smart betters, dumb betters, casual fans, etc... ALL know the the Jets have a great run game, a top defense and a "lockdown" corner in Revis. Despite all these facts the oddsmakers put a line of 9 out.
books set a line with the intent of equalizing the amount of money they take on either side. it has nothing to do with what they think of how the teams match up.
I agree and was thinking the same thing. The Jets strength (running) is San Diego's weakness (stopping the run) and the Chargers strength (passing) is the Jets strength (pass defense), so the advantage clearly goes to Jets right? And now the odds makers open up this line at 9! Is it that easy? I was leaning Jets based on the numbers, but my gut tells me SD wins by at least 10. If this line gets below 7 or maybe even stays at 7, I will take the Chargers. GL
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I agree and was thinking the same thing. The Jets strength (running) is San Diego's weakness (stopping the run) and the Chargers strength (passing) is the Jets strength (pass defense), so the advantage clearly goes to Jets right? And now the odds makers open up this line at 9! Is it that easy? I was leaning Jets based on the numbers, but my gut tells me SD wins by at least 10. If this line gets below 7 or maybe even stays at 7, I will take the Chargers. GL
books set a line with the intent of equalizing the amount of money they take on either side. it has nothing to do with what they think of how the teams match up.
Yeah, but they also know everyone knows that the Jets have the number 1 running game and the number 1 pass defense. That said, why would they set such a high opening line when those rankings a lone should entice people to back the Jets. They could have opened this line at 6.5/7 and gotten a lot of Jet money.
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Quote Originally Posted by escapeNihilism:
books set a line with the intent of equalizing the amount of money they take on either side. it has nothing to do with what they think of how the teams match up.
Yeah, but they also know everyone knows that the Jets have the number 1 running game and the number 1 pass defense. That said, why would they set such a high opening line when those rankings a lone should entice people to back the Jets. They could have opened this line at 6.5/7 and gotten a lot of Jet money.
Yeah, but they also know everyone knows that the Jets have the number 1 running game and the number 1 pass defense. That said, why would they set such a high opening line when those rankings a lone should entice people to back the Jets. They could have opened this line at 6.5/7 and gotten a lot of Jet money.
SD at 13-3, 11 straight, at home, off of a bye. they don't have a crystal ball, their best estimate was 9 and they underestimated the public love affair with the NYJ.
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Quote Originally Posted by CalBear:
Yeah, but they also know everyone knows that the Jets have the number 1 running game and the number 1 pass defense. That said, why would they set such a high opening line when those rankings a lone should entice people to back the Jets. They could have opened this line at 6.5/7 and gotten a lot of Jet money.
SD at 13-3, 11 straight, at home, off of a bye. they don't have a crystal ball, their best estimate was 9 and they underestimated the public love affair with the NYJ.
SD at 13-3, 11 straight, at home, off of a bye. they don't have a crystal ball, their best estimate was 9 and they underestimated the public love affair with the NYJ.
Still seems too high considering the publicity the Jets D has been getting (and rightfully so)....that would lead me to believe the public would assume they will slow down the high flying Chargers. But your right, they did underestimate the love NYJ is getting because they are a public dog and that opening line dropped to 7.5.
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Quote Originally Posted by escapeNihilism:
SD at 13-3, 11 straight, at home, off of a bye. they don't have a crystal ball, their best estimate was 9 and they underestimated the public love affair with the NYJ.
Still seems too high considering the publicity the Jets D has been getting (and rightfully so)....that would lead me to believe the public would assume they will slow down the high flying Chargers. But your right, they did underestimate the love NYJ is getting because they are a public dog and that opening line dropped to 7.5.
with SD off we had 2 weeks to forget about how dominant SD has been and we have been force fed the notion that the Jets are built perfectly to be a cinderella story with the stout d and hard-nosed run ran. if all that is true why isn't this line 6.5?
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with SD off we had 2 weeks to forget about how dominant SD has been and we have been force fed the notion that the Jets are built perfectly to be a cinderella story with the stout d and hard-nosed run ran. if all that is true why isn't this line 6.5?
Everyone in the world including Vegas, smart betters, dumb betters, casual fans, etc... ALL know the the Jets have a great run game, a top defense and a "lockdown" corner in Revis. Despite all these facts the oddsmakers put a line of 9 out.
Please don't think oddsmakers screwed up here. You aren't one of the privileged few who know about the Jets strength and you aren't getting a bargain. Oddsmakers set this line at 9 because they truly believe that the Chargers have the capability to blow them out.
The Jets are playing their 2nd playoff game in a row on the road, traveling across country, have a rookie QB who is mistake prone, are playing a rested and focused team who has been there before and will not have an answer if they fall even slightly behind and Rivers starts to apply pressure. This line opened at 9 because the Jets need to play perfectly to stay competitive and they are just not in a great spot IMO.
The line is set correctly, you make valid points but I don't believe its a bargain... I believe its ALOT of value... Same thing as last year when Arizona was a 10 or 11 point dog to Carolina... Jets are very dangerous. If they contain LT and Sproles, which they probably will, the Chargers become predictable and play into the Jets strength... Every body in the world knows the Jets are going to run run run, yet they still do it week in and week out b/c they also have the best OL in the NFL. The scary part is that Sanchez has been converting on the play action as well... This will be no cake walk for SD, I believe they play from behind the whole game, and I also believe they don't score more than 17 points. BOL, just my opinion
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Quote Originally Posted by ratherBgambling:
Everyone in the world including Vegas, smart betters, dumb betters, casual fans, etc... ALL know the the Jets have a great run game, a top defense and a "lockdown" corner in Revis. Despite all these facts the oddsmakers put a line of 9 out.
Please don't think oddsmakers screwed up here. You aren't one of the privileged few who know about the Jets strength and you aren't getting a bargain. Oddsmakers set this line at 9 because they truly believe that the Chargers have the capability to blow them out.
The Jets are playing their 2nd playoff game in a row on the road, traveling across country, have a rookie QB who is mistake prone, are playing a rested and focused team who has been there before and will not have an answer if they fall even slightly behind and Rivers starts to apply pressure. This line opened at 9 because the Jets need to play perfectly to stay competitive and they are just not in a great spot IMO.
The line is set correctly, you make valid points but I don't believe its a bargain... I believe its ALOT of value... Same thing as last year when Arizona was a 10 or 11 point dog to Carolina... Jets are very dangerous. If they contain LT and Sproles, which they probably will, the Chargers become predictable and play into the Jets strength... Every body in the world knows the Jets are going to run run run, yet they still do it week in and week out b/c they also have the best OL in the NFL. The scary part is that Sanchez has been converting on the play action as well... This will be no cake walk for SD, I believe they play from behind the whole game, and I also believe they don't score more than 17 points. BOL, just my opinion
Yeah, but they also know everyone knows that the Jets have the number 1 running game and the number 1 pass defense. That said, why would they set such a high opening line when those rankings a lone should entice people to back the Jets. They could have opened this line at 6.5/7 and gotten a lot of Jet money.
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because they feel that it will get half the money on jets and half on sd. do you not understand why they set lines
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Quote Originally Posted by CalBear:
Yeah, but they also know everyone knows that the Jets have the number 1 running game and the number 1 pass defense. That said, why would they set such a high opening line when those rankings a lone should entice people to back the Jets. They could have opened this line at 6.5/7 and gotten a lot of Jet money.
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because they feel that it will get half the money on jets and half on sd. do you not understand why they set lines
because they feel that it will get half the money on jets and half on sd. do you not understand why they set lines
Are you serious? Tell me something I don't know. My point is that this line could have opened at 7 and attracted equal action. Yet, opening it up at a high number like 9 smells fishy to me.
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Quote Originally Posted by pickenwinners:
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because they feel that it will get half the money on jets and half on sd. do you not understand why they set lines
Are you serious? Tell me something I don't know. My point is that this line could have opened at 7 and attracted equal action. Yet, opening it up at a high number like 9 smells fishy to me.
Are you serious? Tell me something I don't know. My point is that this line could have opened at 7 and attracted equal action. Yet, opening it up at a high number like 9 smells fishy to me.
you guys aren't making much of an effort to put yourself in the bookmakers' shoes...
San Diego is THE TEAM that everyone (i mean fucking everyone, without one exception) has fallen in love with to run the table and win the Super Bowl... the books KNOW this... they know this very well...
they had no choice but to put up an inflated line on this game... because they know there was a much greater chance that their liability would be exposed by heavy betting on the Chargers than there was of being exposed by heavy betting on the Jets...
seriously... put some thought into it... this line was put where it is, NOT because the books think that is the accurate line... but because that is where they thought they would get even action...
but they didn't... and they have quickly dropped that line down from 9 or 9.5 to 7... and it will continue to drop until they start getting the action on San Diego that they want...
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Quote Originally Posted by CalBear:
Are you serious? Tell me something I don't know. My point is that this line could have opened at 7 and attracted equal action. Yet, opening it up at a high number like 9 smells fishy to me.
you guys aren't making much of an effort to put yourself in the bookmakers' shoes...
San Diego is THE TEAM that everyone (i mean fucking everyone, without one exception) has fallen in love with to run the table and win the Super Bowl... the books KNOW this... they know this very well...
they had no choice but to put up an inflated line on this game... because they know there was a much greater chance that their liability would be exposed by heavy betting on the Chargers than there was of being exposed by heavy betting on the Jets...
seriously... put some thought into it... this line was put where it is, NOT because the books think that is the accurate line... but because that is where they thought they would get even action...
but they didn't... and they have quickly dropped that line down from 9 or 9.5 to 7... and it will continue to drop until they start getting the action on San Diego that they want...
The Bengals were an emotionally drained team. I wouldn't read too much into this line movement, other than to realize the public is jumping on the points of what they perceive as a live doggy. I'm not buying it, the Chargers are playing great football and the Jets will find out what it is like to play a tough team for the first time in nearly a month.
BOL
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The Bengals were an emotionally drained team. I wouldn't read too much into this line movement, other than to realize the public is jumping on the points of what they perceive as a live doggy. I'm not buying it, the Chargers are playing great football and the Jets will find out what it is like to play a tough team for the first time in nearly a month.
Ok wiseguy if you think that the oddsmakers set a line of 9 because they think that the Chargers will blow out the Jets heres something to factor in, when the Pittsburgh Steelers were making a playoff run with Ben in his rookie year they were 3 Point Faves at Cincy, 10 Point Dogs against Indianapolis in the Divisional round like the Jets.....and if i am correct did the Steelers not win that Game Outright, what was that Steelers team based upon....a Run Game, a Defense and a Rookie QB who had to manage the Game....does that ring a bell?
If that does not wet your appetite let me give you another example.....when the Ravens were making there playoff Run in 2000 they were 3 Point Faves against Denver in the Wild Card Round, 7 Point Dogs against Tennessee in the Divisional Round and again if im not mistaken did they not win that Game outright.
The oddsmakers clean up on people who disrespect certain teams...another example Arizona Last year, because those teams have fire in there belly, they train harder than the other playoff teams, they have something to prove.
I can understand why you made a thread disrespecting the Jets Chances because your division rivals but please do not teach us what intentions a line is set for, like most have said the Line is purely made to split public Opinion....theres two sides to the Public 1) The Kool Aid Drinking Jets backers who think they will atleast play tough and cover the 8 Point Spread and 2) Theres the Anti Jet backer like yourself who thinks they got a free pass into the playoffs from the Colts and beat up on a bad Cincinatti Team and are going to get blown out by the Chargers........what does that lead to 50 50 action.
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Ok wiseguy if you think that the oddsmakers set a line of 9 because they think that the Chargers will blow out the Jets heres something to factor in, when the Pittsburgh Steelers were making a playoff run with Ben in his rookie year they were 3 Point Faves at Cincy, 10 Point Dogs against Indianapolis in the Divisional round like the Jets.....and if i am correct did the Steelers not win that Game Outright, what was that Steelers team based upon....a Run Game, a Defense and a Rookie QB who had to manage the Game....does that ring a bell?
If that does not wet your appetite let me give you another example.....when the Ravens were making there playoff Run in 2000 they were 3 Point Faves against Denver in the Wild Card Round, 7 Point Dogs against Tennessee in the Divisional Round and again if im not mistaken did they not win that Game outright.
The oddsmakers clean up on people who disrespect certain teams...another example Arizona Last year, because those teams have fire in there belly, they train harder than the other playoff teams, they have something to prove.
I can understand why you made a thread disrespecting the Jets Chances because your division rivals but please do not teach us what intentions a line is set for, like most have said the Line is purely made to split public Opinion....theres two sides to the Public 1) The Kool Aid Drinking Jets backers who think they will atleast play tough and cover the 8 Point Spread and 2) Theres the Anti Jet backer like yourself who thinks they got a free pass into the playoffs from the Colts and beat up on a bad Cincinatti Team and are going to get blown out by the Chargers........what does that lead to 50 50 action.
ICE- I understand the love affair for SD, but in the past few weeks the Jets publicity and how they are the best defense in football and how they have the best run offense in football has been ingrained in the publics head. This would lead me to believe oddsmakers would set this line at most 7/7.5. But enough talk about this...I don't want to go in circles like I already have. GL on your wagers.
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ICE- I understand the love affair for SD, but in the past few weeks the Jets publicity and how they are the best defense in football and how they have the best run offense in football has been ingrained in the publics head. This would lead me to believe oddsmakers would set this line at most 7/7.5. But enough talk about this...I don't want to go in circles like I already have. GL on your wagers.
I sincerely doubt the linesmakers drop the line much more than 1/2 a point. They'll expose themselves to too much middle. The 1979 SB was a prime example where Pitt opened at -6, then dropped to -3 and Dallas rallied but lost. Pitt won by 5. It was called Black Monday in Vegas.
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I sincerely doubt the linesmakers drop the line much more than 1/2 a point. They'll expose themselves to too much middle. The 1979 SB was a prime example where Pitt opened at -6, then dropped to -3 and Dallas rallied but lost. Pitt won by 5. It was called Black Monday in Vegas.
Ok wiseguy if you think that the oddsmakers set a line of 9 because they think that the Chargers will blow out the Jets heres something to factor in, when the Pittsburgh Steelers were making a playoff run with Ben in his rookie year they were 3 Point Faves at Cincy, 10 Point Dogs against Indianapolis in the Divisional round like the Jets.....and if i am correct did the Steelers not win that Game Outright, what was that Steelers team based upon....a Run Game, a Defense and a Rookie QB who had to manage the Game....does that ring a bell?
Just for the sake of accuracy, that was not Ben's rookie year. HIs rookie year, the Steelers went 15-1, barely beat the Jets in an OT playoff game, and got smoked by the Pats in the AFC Championship. The season to which you are referring was his second season.
I think that too many people are making the mistake of putting too much weight on the Jets win against Cincy and overlooking the teams recent play as a whole. Perhaps the books are begging for Jets action at +9 so they can clean house when the Chargers smoke them. Or perhaps their line is just off? We'll only know for certain who's right on Sunday night about 7 or 8pm.
An a related note, what's the difference between a trap line and a line that is just off? Seems to me that they both have the same telltale signs.
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Quote Originally Posted by RipVanWinkle:
Ok wiseguy if you think that the oddsmakers set a line of 9 because they think that the Chargers will blow out the Jets heres something to factor in, when the Pittsburgh Steelers were making a playoff run with Ben in his rookie year they were 3 Point Faves at Cincy, 10 Point Dogs against Indianapolis in the Divisional round like the Jets.....and if i am correct did the Steelers not win that Game Outright, what was that Steelers team based upon....a Run Game, a Defense and a Rookie QB who had to manage the Game....does that ring a bell?
Just for the sake of accuracy, that was not Ben's rookie year. HIs rookie year, the Steelers went 15-1, barely beat the Jets in an OT playoff game, and got smoked by the Pats in the AFC Championship. The season to which you are referring was his second season.
I think that too many people are making the mistake of putting too much weight on the Jets win against Cincy and overlooking the teams recent play as a whole. Perhaps the books are begging for Jets action at +9 so they can clean house when the Chargers smoke them. Or perhaps their line is just off? We'll only know for certain who's right on Sunday night about 7 or 8pm.
An a related note, what's the difference between a trap line and a line that is just off? Seems to me that they both have the same telltale signs.
Just for the sake of accuracy, that was not Ben's rookie year. HIs rookie year, the Steelers went 15-1, barely beat the Jets in an OT playoff game, and got smoked by the Pats in the AFC Championship. The season to which you are referring was his second season.
I think that too many people are making the mistake of putting too much weight on the Jets win against Cincy and overlooking the teams recent play as a whole. Perhaps the books are begging for Jets action at +9 so they can clean house when the Chargers smoke them. Or perhaps their line is just off? We'll only know for certain who's right on Sunday night about 7 or 8pm.
An a related note, what's the difference between a trap line and a line that is just off? Seems to me that they both have the same telltale signs.
My bad regarding Ben, but he was a QB at that time who was similar to Sanchez he had to manage the Game and not win it for them. We will see come Sunday i guess.....
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Quote Originally Posted by odysseus55:
Just for the sake of accuracy, that was not Ben's rookie year. HIs rookie year, the Steelers went 15-1, barely beat the Jets in an OT playoff game, and got smoked by the Pats in the AFC Championship. The season to which you are referring was his second season.
I think that too many people are making the mistake of putting too much weight on the Jets win against Cincy and overlooking the teams recent play as a whole. Perhaps the books are begging for Jets action at +9 so they can clean house when the Chargers smoke them. Or perhaps their line is just off? We'll only know for certain who's right on Sunday night about 7 or 8pm.
An a related note, what's the difference between a trap line and a line that is just off? Seems to me that they both have the same telltale signs.
My bad regarding Ben, but he was a QB at that time who was similar to Sanchez he had to manage the Game and not win it for them. We will see come Sunday i guess.....
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