Looking to compare game projections with some of the data nerds on here. I prefer this to be a conversation of your game predictions based on actual statistical data. Feel free to comment with any of your own model projections, dvoa projections, game simulations, etc. As I've gotten more serious about these handicapping methods, I've become more curious as to what the other guys on here are coming up with. I'm hoping to hear from some of the TJZags598s, Vanzacks, unplucked-gems, Raiders22s, and some of the other guys that I know are crunching the numbers all week. I kindly ask that this thread doesn't get cluttered with guys who are just throwing out their educated guesses on the games this weekend. I'll kick it off with the games that I'm going to be playing this week...
Chicago Bears +6
This is the type of game that you bet on and keep your fingers crossed. The Bears absolutely suck lately and GB is coming off a bye looking to solidify their position in the playoff hunt. I have three different lines on this game as I do on most. Not one of them has GB as high as -6.
GB -4.2
GB -1.77
GB -1.16
The reasons that I think Chicago can keep it close in this one-
Chicago is currently ranked 6th in the league vs the pass per DVOA while being ranked 30th against the run
Chicago is ranked 13th in total defensive DVOA right behind GB at 12 by a very small margin
According to pro football reference-
GB is ranked 27th in the league in Blitz% this season
GB is ranked 20th in the league in sacks
GB is tied for 17th in the league in QB pressures
Chicago is better in every category
The Bears main focus this week offensively needs to be getting the ball out quick. Caleb Williams has been the most sacked qb in the league up to this point. Hopefully the new OC is smart enough to realize that this is the only path to success. Caleb Williams has also sacked himself quite a few times this year. I'd imagine that by now he is finally understanding that holding onto the ball for so long is the reason he's on the ground so much. Luckily for the Bears, GB is in the lower tier of teams generating pressure and getting to the QB. If Caleb can get the ball out a little faster and have some extra time in the pocket compared to what he's used to lately, the Bears should have some success in the passing game this week. Meanwhile, the strength of the Bears defense is their pass defense. If they can stiffen up in the run D a little bit and force GB into passing situations, there is the potential for a 2-3 interception game for Jordan Love. I'm looking for a game where the Bears can have some success on offense and can limit GB's passing attack. I'm hoping the market drives this one to +6.5 -110 or better.
More to come...
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Looking to compare game projections with some of the data nerds on here. I prefer this to be a conversation of your game predictions based on actual statistical data. Feel free to comment with any of your own model projections, dvoa projections, game simulations, etc. As I've gotten more serious about these handicapping methods, I've become more curious as to what the other guys on here are coming up with. I'm hoping to hear from some of the TJZags598s, Vanzacks, unplucked-gems, Raiders22s, and some of the other guys that I know are crunching the numbers all week. I kindly ask that this thread doesn't get cluttered with guys who are just throwing out their educated guesses on the games this weekend. I'll kick it off with the games that I'm going to be playing this week...
Chicago Bears +6
This is the type of game that you bet on and keep your fingers crossed. The Bears absolutely suck lately and GB is coming off a bye looking to solidify their position in the playoff hunt. I have three different lines on this game as I do on most. Not one of them has GB as high as -6.
GB -4.2
GB -1.77
GB -1.16
The reasons that I think Chicago can keep it close in this one-
Chicago is currently ranked 6th in the league vs the pass per DVOA while being ranked 30th against the run
Chicago is ranked 13th in total defensive DVOA right behind GB at 12 by a very small margin
According to pro football reference-
GB is ranked 27th in the league in Blitz% this season
GB is ranked 20th in the league in sacks
GB is tied for 17th in the league in QB pressures
Chicago is better in every category
The Bears main focus this week offensively needs to be getting the ball out quick. Caleb Williams has been the most sacked qb in the league up to this point. Hopefully the new OC is smart enough to realize that this is the only path to success. Caleb Williams has also sacked himself quite a few times this year. I'd imagine that by now he is finally understanding that holding onto the ball for so long is the reason he's on the ground so much. Luckily for the Bears, GB is in the lower tier of teams generating pressure and getting to the QB. If Caleb can get the ball out a little faster and have some extra time in the pocket compared to what he's used to lately, the Bears should have some success in the passing game this week. Meanwhile, the strength of the Bears defense is their pass defense. If they can stiffen up in the run D a little bit and force GB into passing situations, there is the potential for a 2-3 interception game for Jordan Love. I'm looking for a game where the Bears can have some success on offense and can limit GB's passing attack. I'm hoping the market drives this one to +6.5 -110 or better.
With only one of my lines being close to the market line of PHI -3.5 I'll be on Washington here. Not a big play but I'll take the 3.5 in a very important divisional game for both teams.
I'm not high on the Eagles and I haven't been for a while now. Coaching plays a big factor and for good reason. Nick Sirriani can take any Eagles game and turn it into a shit show. What Dan Quinn and Kliff Kingsbury have done in Washington is remarkable with a rookie QB. Jayden Daniels gets better every week.
WAS is currently #2 in the league in offensive DVOA, while PHI ranks#14
WAS is currently #2 in the league in passing per DVOA, while PHI ranks #17
While PHI is #7 in the league in rushing DVOA, WAS is right behind at #8
Bottom line, I think Washington can score in this game. Philly should too vs a lesser WAS defense, but I think this game stays tight down to the wire. Unless Jayden Daniels really has a tough time, I can't see this one getting out of hand for Washington. Add in the coaching factor and there is potential for Washington to steal one on the road here. Maybe this is one of those scenarios where WAS steals the road game and then loses at home later on. Washington still has a chance to win this division and they are a hungry team. I'd like to see them keep Austin Ekeler heavily involved as the guy definitely has been a nice compliment to this offense. And he certainly has some juice left in the tank. Give me the +3.5 all day every day in this one.
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Washington Commanders +3.5
My line projections-
WAS -2.88
WAS -1.7
PHI -0.39
PHI -3.66
With only one of my lines being close to the market line of PHI -3.5 I'll be on Washington here. Not a big play but I'll take the 3.5 in a very important divisional game for both teams.
I'm not high on the Eagles and I haven't been for a while now. Coaching plays a big factor and for good reason. Nick Sirriani can take any Eagles game and turn it into a shit show. What Dan Quinn and Kliff Kingsbury have done in Washington is remarkable with a rookie QB. Jayden Daniels gets better every week.
WAS is currently #2 in the league in offensive DVOA, while PHI ranks#14
WAS is currently #2 in the league in passing per DVOA, while PHI ranks #17
While PHI is #7 in the league in rushing DVOA, WAS is right behind at #8
Bottom line, I think Washington can score in this game. Philly should too vs a lesser WAS defense, but I think this game stays tight down to the wire. Unless Jayden Daniels really has a tough time, I can't see this one getting out of hand for Washington. Add in the coaching factor and there is potential for Washington to steal one on the road here. Maybe this is one of those scenarios where WAS steals the road game and then loses at home later on. Washington still has a chance to win this division and they are a hungry team. I'd like to see them keep Austin Ekeler heavily involved as the guy definitely has been a nice compliment to this offense. And he certainly has some juice left in the tank. Give me the +3.5 all day every day in this one.
I've already gotten my hands on NE +5 and the line has dropped. The Rams travel across the country on a shorter week after an abysmal performance vs MIA. Outdoor game and Stafford is past his prime and it showed last week. Not to mention, what the hell was Sean McVay doing at the end of that game? Very questionable decision making. The Pats are nothing special but Drake Maye is improving and when he scrambles around it creates headaches for defenses. NE should be feeling good after a road win last week and hopefully their confidence is improving with Maye at QB. Back at home as an underdog I like them in this spot. Not a whole lot to say about this one but I'll take the home dog here and hope they don't get beaten badly on the defensive side of the ball.
My line projections-
LAR -3.9
NE -1.36
Quite a difference between the two but maybe NE squeaks out an outright win here. I like a low scoring game where the Pats hang around, maybe get a backdoor cover, or even win it outright.
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New England Patriots +4.5
I've already gotten my hands on NE +5 and the line has dropped. The Rams travel across the country on a shorter week after an abysmal performance vs MIA. Outdoor game and Stafford is past his prime and it showed last week. Not to mention, what the hell was Sean McVay doing at the end of that game? Very questionable decision making. The Pats are nothing special but Drake Maye is improving and when he scrambles around it creates headaches for defenses. NE should be feeling good after a road win last week and hopefully their confidence is improving with Maye at QB. Back at home as an underdog I like them in this spot. Not a whole lot to say about this one but I'll take the home dog here and hope they don't get beaten badly on the defensive side of the ball.
My line projections-
LAR -3.9
NE -1.36
Quite a difference between the two but maybe NE squeaks out an outright win here. I like a low scoring game where the Pats hang around, maybe get a backdoor cover, or even win it outright.
Lattimore needs to play or Hurts will pass them blind.... Skins oline is banged up too Robinson RB has been MIA as well....
Agreed. Robinson needs to help out in the run game. Lattimore is most likely out for this one, but if he can go it's a huge bonus. Cornelius Lucas OT should return for this game.
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Quote Originally Posted by bigred84:
Lattimore needs to play or Hurts will pass them blind.... Skins oline is banged up too Robinson RB has been MIA as well....
Agreed. Robinson needs to help out in the run game. Lattimore is most likely out for this one, but if he can go it's a huge bonus. Cornelius Lucas OT should return for this game.
This one could be a big ask for the Titans. They are home. Sam Darnold is showing his true colors. Titans defense can hold up?
Right now I have two line projections-
MIN -5.13
MIN -0.5
MIN currently ranks #1 in total defensive DVOA while TEN ranks #11
MIN ranks #1 in defensive rushing DVOA while TEN ranks #8
Vikings offense seems to be pretty good on paper but, really ranks middle of the pack in most categories. The Titans offense on the other hand doesn't do well anywhere. It just seems that the Vikings are overvalued here with Sam Darnold at qb. According to the way that I track turnovers, Darnold is good for 1.75 per game on average. Even Will Levis isn't that bad. A multiple interception/fumble game is almost a given for him at this point. What it boils down to is that I don't trust Darnold on the road in this spot. No way, no how. He'll have to prove it to me that he can win this one by 7. If the Titans get blown out and can't do anything on offense, I'll chalk it up as a bad bet and move on. After squeaking by the Jags last week in pathetic fashion, I'm ready to start fading this Vikings team. Give me the Titans +6 at home.
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Tennessee Titans +6
This one could be a big ask for the Titans. They are home. Sam Darnold is showing his true colors. Titans defense can hold up?
Right now I have two line projections-
MIN -5.13
MIN -0.5
MIN currently ranks #1 in total defensive DVOA while TEN ranks #11
MIN ranks #1 in defensive rushing DVOA while TEN ranks #8
Vikings offense seems to be pretty good on paper but, really ranks middle of the pack in most categories. The Titans offense on the other hand doesn't do well anywhere. It just seems that the Vikings are overvalued here with Sam Darnold at qb. According to the way that I track turnovers, Darnold is good for 1.75 per game on average. Even Will Levis isn't that bad. A multiple interception/fumble game is almost a given for him at this point. What it boils down to is that I don't trust Darnold on the road in this spot. No way, no how. He'll have to prove it to me that he can win this one by 7. If the Titans get blown out and can't do anything on offense, I'll chalk it up as a bad bet and move on. After squeaking by the Jags last week in pathetic fashion, I'm ready to start fading this Vikings team. Give me the Titans +6 at home.
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