Posted:
#1
2017 Season Record: 0-0 ATS (+$0.00)
Here we go with these pick fresh off Bay Street
Thursday, September 7
Kansas City Chiefs +8 ($1100 to win $1000)
And we are back for another season of NFL Football! The tendency on banner night is to always go with the home team because the momentum is with them and they should be up for it right? True. But not always. I love the Kansas City Chiefs here. Not only do I believe they can put points up on the board but I think they can put some 25+ points up on the board and unless their defense is horrendous, that should get them the cover. Look no further than New England's defense. The pre-season means absolutely nothing but it has to be concerning that New England allowed 31, 27, 28 and 40 points in their four pre-season games. The starters had to have something to do with that. No depth, no big covers. KC on the other hand had a few duds (Seattle and San Francisco games) but managed to hold both the Tennessee Titans and Cincinnati Bengals to under 12 points allowing an average of 9.0 points per game in those games. We all know the Pats are going to score some points in this one but how will they look without their go to guy Julian Edelman? This team has always been about "next man up" and they have some weapons but Kansas City is a "bend but don't break" defense. They allowed 19.4 points per game in 2016 which ranks #7 in the NFL. They allow a ton of yards but it's not easy putting up big points on these guys.
The one thing we know about the NFL is that consistency is hard. Although that doesn't really apply to the Patriots, I do believe they are going to have a hangover from last season's Super Bowl and I do believe some of the departed or injured players are going to be missed. Believe it or not the Chiefs were a very good road team last season going 6-0 ATS in their last six games away from home. Let's take a look at these two teams when they play early in the season. There are two sample games to look at. September 2008 when Kansas City came into Foxboro as a 16 point underdog and lost 17-10. More recently when New England went to Kansas City as a -3 point favorite in 2014 and were blown out by a score of 41-14 (Alex Smith had 3 touchdown passes and 0 interceptions). So again for me it's a big concern that New England's defense looked so bad in the pre-season but it's only the pre-season. Nonetheless, Kansas City has the speed to really hurt the Pats and I see them finding a way to win this game. I rarely take underdogs when I don't pick them to win in the NFL but in this case....it's the Patriots.
Trend of the Game: Kansas City is 6-0 ATS in their last six road games dating back to 2016
New England 26, Kansas City 25
Kansas City Chiefs +8 ($1100 to win $1000)
And we are back for another season of NFL Football! The tendency on banner night is to always go with the home team because the momentum is with them and they should be up for it right? True. But not always. I love the Kansas City Chiefs here. Not only do I believe they can put points up on the board but I think they can put some 25+ points up on the board and unless their defense is horrendous, that should get them the cover. Look no further than New England's defense. The pre-season means absolutely nothing but it has to be concerning that New England allowed 31, 27, 28 and 40 points in their four pre-season games. The starters had to have something to do with that. No depth, no big covers. KC on the other hand had a few duds (Seattle and San Francisco games) but managed to hold both the Tennessee Titans and Cincinnati Bengals to under 12 points allowing an average of 9.0 points per game in those games. We all know the Pats are going to score some points in this one but how will they look without their go to guy Julian Edelman? This team has always been about "next man up" and they have some weapons but Kansas City is a "bend but don't break" defense. They allowed 19.4 points per game in 2016 which ranks #7 in the NFL. They allow a ton of yards but it's not easy putting up big points on these guys.
The one thing we know about the NFL is that consistency is hard. Although that doesn't really apply to the Patriots, I do believe they are going to have a hangover from last season's Super Bowl and I do believe some of the departed or injured players are going to be missed. Believe it or not the Chiefs were a very good road team last season going 6-0 ATS in their last six games away from home. Let's take a look at these two teams when they play early in the season. There are two sample games to look at. September 2008 when Kansas City came into Foxboro as a 16 point underdog and lost 17-10. More recently when New England went to Kansas City as a -3 point favorite in 2014 and were blown out by a score of 41-14 (Alex Smith had 3 touchdown passes and 0 interceptions). So again for me it's a big concern that New England's defense looked so bad in the pre-season but it's only the pre-season. Nonetheless, Kansas City has the speed to really hurt the Pats and I see them finding a way to win this game. I rarely take underdogs when I don't pick them to win in the NFL but in this case....it's the Patriots.
Trend of the Game: Kansas City is 6-0 ATS in their last six road games dating back to 2016
New England 26, Kansas City 25
0
glee is tempered by the season ending loss of #29. That really hurts!
Good luck with your plays.
...I like the writeups...
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