XFL Rejects SB XLVI (w/ full write-up and I do mean full)

SUPER BOWL XLVI PICKS AND WHY?

I haven’t had the time to post as often as I would like but have been here at Covers for 11 years.  Some of you may be familiar with me. It has been a good season and great playoffs for me. I believe I may have won the “Will Bet Anything” contest even without having to play the SB. I am grateful for that win and thanks to WBA for all the work he puts into that. He must have one helluva spreadsheet formula. Also kudos to all other strong finishers. I know this will attract both bashers and solid contributions alike . Either way just bring it. I simply wanted to share my humble .02 for the Big Dance!

This is one helluva long write-up which was not my intention but hey, when you love the game, you love the game and it just kind of flowed. So pour TWO loooooooooong drinks and kick back and ENJOY!

Back in Week 14 on a Sunday night, it looked like the Gmen were toast when suddenly Eli threw 2 deep 4th Q. bombs to pull out a daring come from behind win against the hated Cowgirls. Miles Austin’s late miss of a sure to-the-house TD would have us discussing a different match-up! I am not sure what it was exactly but I felt there was something lurking, ticking beneath this Gmen veneer that told me they just were not done.

Week 15 sees them lose again to the Deadskins but I knew that would be a letdown game as it wasn’t a do or die situation…yet.

Then “The Mouth” rolls into town and the talk all week was courtesy of Mr. Ryan basically expounding on how there was not enough room in NYC for the two teams and the rival Gmen were gonna be sent up packing with their gridiron tails stuck matted a la fecal adhesive firmly to their heineys. Well, if you saw that game the Gmen smashed them in the mouth, ran over them  and through them and beat the shit out of them 29-14. The score should have been 43-14 as the zebras jobbed them in that game even more so then the playoff game vs. the Pack. Even after watching two replays the men in stripes made two blatantly erroneous calls and still couldn’t get the reversals right.

As soon as that game was over I said to myself, ”The effin’ Giants are not just going to the playoffs ( and remember they still had a Game 17 must win against the Cowboys ahead of them –which saw them pound the “Romosexual” crew yet again) but they are going to the SB. I swear I made that call and immediately sought to place a futures bet. Aaaaahhhh not so fast buster. There is one glaring matchup that kills my theory faster than a KD Lang poster on the bathroom wall can zero out morning wood!

If the Gotham City Milkmen have to play the Saints on that fast carpet……again (lost 49-24 in The Superdome around Week 8)….they are toast.

So I had to wait to see how the first game went in the playoffs to determine the ensuing matchups and once I saw who was drawing the Boys from Bourbon Street, I placed my bet and still got 20:1 instead of the 40:1 I could have had.

So perhaps you have no reason to read further as it may appear obvious as to whom I am on. The fact that I am on a 17-2-1 ATS/TOTALS tear through the playoffs doesn’t mean I’m going to go 19-2-1 but it would sure be nice. I have also hit 7 out of my 8 ML plays ,all on dogs, and narrowly missed winning with BAL vs. NE. One thing the NFL has taught me over my 22 years of handicapping is to always stay humble. If not, it will make you eat humble pie real quick whether you like it or not.

Let’s list some trends regardless of whether you place much stock into them.

TRENDS

No team with a TOP 5 bottom rated overall Defence has ever won a SB.   0-45 SU ( That would be the Pats)
NE is 1-7 ATS in the playoffs.
NE is 0-3 ATS in the SB.
NE is 9-3 ATS off a non cover.
Play against a team who is off a non-cover and now on a neutral field 10-3-2- 76.9 % (Play against NE)
NE ( dynamic duo of BB and Tom Terrific) are 18-3 SU and 16-4-1 ATS off of 3 SU  wins
NE did not beat one winning team this year in reg. Season
SB faves who give up 3.9 ypr are 2-6 ATS

NYG is 8-0 ATS in playoffs
NYG is 9-1 ATS as a playoff dog
Lower rated seed is 11-1-2 ATS currently in the SB. ( Play on NYG)
Team that has covered every game and is the lower conference seed vs. playoff team with a non-cover or push is 10-1-2 ATS ( Play on NYG)
NYG is 11-3 ATS off back-to-back away wins (10-3-1 ATS vs. better than .700 foes)
Teams are 12-6-1 off SU underdog wins in playoffs (6-1-1 off 2 SU underdog wins)
NFC teams are 20-11 SU and 19-10-2 ATS since 1980, including 8-1-1
ATS versus .800 or greater opponents.
A 9-7 team has NEVER won the SB. ( Play against NYG)

In as far as the total goes (opened at 53.5 and quickly got hit up to 55.5) That latter # has only been hit 4 X in L15 years ( 2 of those only covered by ½ a pt.)

Last night saw the total drop 1.5 points in many places except for a few offshores and a mid-week move like that is not the result of public money I can assure you.

Before I get into my reasoning for my side and why; I do want to say that when I saw this line and total come out, the first thing I thought was, “This is a total Vegas mindfuck!!”

I did some research and found that a few former linesmakers felt the same way as I. They would have opened the line at NE –1 or NE –2 and the total at about 51.5 or 52.5.

So why did Vegas open the line where they did is a great question.

First of all, if they had opened NE at a soft # under 3 they would have got pummelled with NE money.

NE went 13-3 and was the top seed in their conference. They have won 10 straight games since their 24-20 loss to…guess who?…those Giants! Their QB had another prolific season with 39 TD 12 INT and over 5200 yards. They had an All-Pro record setting season from a TE used like I have never seen a tight end employed. Their other TE Hernandez is a pure stud. Wes Welker- the league’s poster boy for Energizer Bunny batteries-caught 122 receptions and flew under the radar. Their defence got more stout as the season wore on and they decimated a lot of teams albeit weak ones. Their run stop units, up the middle, Jerrod Mayo and Vincent Wilfork are akin to running into Mack Trucks that are armed with speed, balance and leverage. McCourty is def coming into his own as a strong CB for the Pats. I believe a big factor in Vegas setting up this line which many believe has the WRONG team favored is the “revenge factor” ( and their season record with lofty scoring numbers on offence). NYG returns 15 starters from the 2007-2008 SB winning squad. NE returns only 7. But for anyone who doesn’t understand this NE team’s leadership; please allow me to share this with you.

When people ask me who my favorite team is in the NFL; my answer is this.

The team that brings me the Benjamins!

I caught on to the Pats in Brady’s very 1st game. I capped almost every Pats game that year bang on. I had money on NE ML, NE +14 and NE UNDER 50 in that SB game vs. The Rams (2001). I have read many books on BB and the Patriots franchise of modern day.

Brady is one of the most competitive, bitter, handsome and rich bastards to ever play the game. Emphasis on bitter and competitive. It is part of his mental psyche that makes him so great. He is an intellectual yet executable part of Bill Belichick that actually plays the game ON THE FIELD. I feel strongly that this is one of the reasons Vegas set the line where they did. But how dominant are BB and TB together? 6-5 SU currently in the playoffs ain’t too hot. Teams they should have torched in the SB they could only beat by 3 ( Eagles and Panthers). Assante Samuel and Eugene Wilson both went down in that game and T.O. machine Delhomme exploited both of those for two quick major strikes in that 32-29 loss to NE. I have been a huge proponent of the Pats for years going into games where they should have crushed the opposition and they have let me down many times or I was merely blind to what I should have seen. I will go with the latter. I have seen Belichick get outcoached more in the last 3 years than I have ever seen prior. Coughlin does not get enough credit from many outsiders and he is not a drop-off from BB in my opinion.

Now let’s take a look at the Giants.

Their road to SB XLVI is eerily reminiscent of the 2007-2008 season. Back in as a very low seed though they did win their division as opposed to coming in as a 6th seed wildcard as they did that year. Beat every mothereffin’ team on the road in 2007 playoff run and had to win a few that way this year though they did get one home playoff game and decimated ATL 24-2. I was actually amused at the amount of people that had ATL winning that game as a 3 pt. puppy. GB might have been rusty but NYG still waxed them on the road even despite the zebras. Then in Candlestick they played an unbelievably stout “D” that saw Eli get hit 22 X, sacked 6X and hurried countless times as he attempted 64 passes. If there is any doubt about his toughness I think he silenced his critics. Many argue that NYG backed into this game. I think that perception bodes well for NYG backers. True they had a personnel glitch who helped the Gmen immensely for 10 pts. Thank God Ginn did not play .Yet, I still feel a better field would have seen a very different game in Giants favor. I still cannot believe that they gave up those two HUGE plays to Vernon Davis the way the Saints did.

Conversely, NE still won despite losing the turnover battle by –2. BAL played an excellent game and Flacco acquitted himself very well just like I knew he would. Only bet I lost that weekend was BAL ML and you saw how close that came to fruition.

Another thing Vegas has taught me is that lines are set to capitalize on the public’s perception from the LAST THING they saw. Think about it. Wasn’t this game a perfect example?

NE looks like worldbeaters in a game they could have won 66-10 against a team that handled themselves like a Division III squad and BAL looked old and slow allowing Foster (vs. HOU)to constantly gash them up the middle. Flacco got sacked 5 X in that game and Yates stayed upright the entire time. Rice – who needs to get outside and is so effective with short backfield passes- was utilized horrendously that day and got nowhere trying to run between the tackles the entire afternoon. If there was any doubt we all know that Texan defence is fer real! Many of you reading this most likely played NE – 7 and thought it was a sure thing. Once again a team does not look as good as the week before nor as bad as the week before. Those two teams could not have had more polarized opposite performances the week previous and hence why I say it set up so well for a slaughter of the sheep.

NE got a lot of breaks in that game vs. BAL. Lee Evans should have been more focussed. BAL gave up a horrible offside that resulted in a whole ‘nother set of downs that contributed to the last NE TD.

But the best has to be the amateurish coaching of the egomaniacal Harbaugh –who many of you witnessed pushing his “kicking assistant”. Yes, that is the man’s official title and capacity. What many may not know is that the clock in the Razor actually had that whole set of downs off by 1. So on the electronic board it said 3rd down when it was really 2nd, 4th down when it was really 3rd and so on. The coaching staff have the responsibility of being on top of tracking that and the physical sticks on the field are supposed to always be the true constant and barometer if they were paying attention.

Bottom line Harbaugh screwed up royally and should have taken the timeout and no doubt about it-as lousy a kicker as Cundiff is- he was rushed and whiffed on a routine 31 yarder. I have a feeling Cundiff went to the Patriots dressing room after that game where he was prolly embraced with big hugs and kegmeisters of champagne!

 I recall when Paul McCallum many years ago in a Western Division final shanked a routine kick that would have sent his team to the Grey Cup in the CFL. The next day someone dumped a literal TON of manure on his front lawn and egged his house with dozens of eggs. The next day he was traded to the team who benefited from his missed kick-BC Lions-where he has been ever since and won a grey Cup with this past season. So we could make arguments for both teams getting a lot of help in supplying us with the ‘REVENGE BOWL”.

Now that I have digressed, back to the Gmen.

When these two teams back during regular season, the Giants were missing WR Hakeem Nicks, RB Ahmad Bradshaw, LB Michael Boley and C David Baas. Some pretty damn key personnel. Tuck was really banged up at the time and far from effective as he has sustained injuries to no less than 7 major parts of his body this year. The game was 0-0 at the half and it took two late Brady TD’s to even see them in this game. Brady was rocked all game and running scared. They also lost the turnover battles 2-0 in that game.

Both teams have improved. Their defences are playing much better especially the Giants and that vaunted pass rush. Those DB’s are going to love the push they get off that fast turf. I virtually throw regular season stats out the door here. Eli has played beautifully in the 4th Q.  in big games even setting a new NFL record. He has shown poise and leadership that many-love him or hate him- didn’t think he had in him. The defence of the Giants is at an all-season healthy high and playing out of their minds –but important to note- not their ability. They are winning turnover battles in almost every game. Not one turnover in the post season and they have put up 20 points from those of their opponent. Eli is playing so efficiently. His receivers are so dangerous after the catch or one of my fave stats (YAC). The Boys from NYC are kicking ass on 3rd down conversions. Their red zone offense has been unreal as of late. They played a much tougher schedule in-season and postseason to get here.Webster is playing very well in man-to-man coverage. The linebacking corps will get you if the ferocious rush of the tackles doesn’t. Canty, Joseph and Boley are pretty damn good in their roles never mind that front 4. They get so much pressure up the middle which will shift Brady from his “spot” which he hates. Then you have the ends coming around with the death knell. How good will Pats O-line be? What can we expect? Light (OT) and Waters (G) at 33 and 34 are older and slower. On passing plays, ILB Mayo and NT Wilfork aren’t so effective off the push when not run stopping. Giants have only given up 14 ppg in their last 6 games against some much tougher opposition than that NE has played in their last 6 (BAL excepted) and they have played much stouter defences that will make this Sunday’s role a lot less daunting. Coughlin has even utilized a person by the name of Danny DePalma (5’11” 200 lbs.) on their roster to simulate Welker on offence and Edelman on defence {whereby he (Danny) has watched hours and hours of film on both}in practice to help prepare his squad. I also believe TE Ballard-esp. with double coverage on Cruz and safeties playing over the top- may see a productive day and a red zone TD himself.

I am well aware that The Gronk has gamma rays flowing through him like Buzz Lightyear but he hasn’t even been able run in practice as the truth finally emerges this morning. He will not be nearly as effective as I might have been lead to believe watching much coverage from yesterday. I bet he may not play. Though BB will dress him just to throw a curveball or two until Giants see how limited he is which will not take long.

Brady will have to release quickly and in many short slant and crossing routes as he is very effective at reading his checkdowns and he releases very fast. You absolutely know that he will be bringing the hurry up no huddle offence often and early. He is the maestro of reading what is given him and throwing anything in his arsenal to keep the opposition defence on its heels. But if coverage is tight and the pressure is coming that is when Brady makes mistakes and rushes the hot reads. Eli is much more astute when the shitstorm is flying at him. Brady reads blitzes well and always has but his reaction speed isn’t as good as it once was and his pocket mobility has reduced substantially from 10 years ago. Don’t believe me-watch some game tape from both years. This bodes well for the Giants pass ”D” because they only need to bring 4 and can leave the rest in man coverage.

Now I know the action is on the Gmen to the tune of about 64% but even Jimmy Vaccaro predicts that 90% of the total SB handle has NOT come in yet. Both public and sharp money hammered the opening line fast pushing it off of 3.5 and once the key number of 3 got juiced so heavily we saw some popular and respected books bring it down to 2.5. If they had opened the line at anything like NE –1 OR NE –2 many educated guesses are that the money would have come in on NYG even more lopsided. I know the line had to make many a good player question his/her NYG position and I know many will argue that this line is a trap that tells you the Pats will win and win convincingly like 31-24.

Sometimes both John Q. Public and the sharps are on the same side, in fact quite often. LY is a great example with Green Bay (who were a public darling). I was on the wrong side LY (I have lost the last 2 SB’s after nailing 15 in a row). Maybe time to fade me.

I am up $13,500 on the playoffs and if all goes well I am up over $20,000 and if it all goes south I should still walk away with about $5-7K. I have even played some alternate line action and have given this game a lot of thought. One part of me loves my side and yet I am nervous as I know what Tom Brady and co. bring to the table. I will say this much. The Patriots have been very good to my pocketbook but I called the Giants early and there is no way I am backing off. Yes, I have asked myself,” Am I on the wrong side here?”…even gone as far as saying , “O.K. do I need to step outside the box and re-think this? Are the Pats the sharp play?” (whatever that means)Yes, the allure of money can do some strange things to your thought process.

The Gmen have been very confident and brash through the whole media week. I am sure to a man they love where they are at and prolly feel they should be favored. The other “Tom” does not get discussed enough and perhaps he would like to rein them in a bit but he has done an awesome job through it all even while the NY media has had him square in their rifle sights. How many teams have been to the SB in the last 10 years? How many have been there more than once? Answers may surprise you. Will Tom Brady get his 4th ring in 5 visits in 12 years? If Eli beats him TWICE and goes to 2-0 himself how will that change conversations or the way many view the legacy of Brady? The pressure on Tom Brady and Bill Belichick to deliver is huge…in memory of Myra Kraft they serve her honor with every game and would love nothing more to gift wrap this one up for their beloved owner. Everyone is talking about how the whole world and their mother is on the Giantts but last time I checked NE  is still the 3 pt. fave in this contest in most houses. Yes, locker room fodder has been served up by both sides and I’m sure utilized. BB denies that but he loves to use it. Gmen love the fact that they are junkyard dogs and no team could relish that role more than they do. If they feel shafted they get a chance to show the world come Feb.5th.

The way I see this game play out, if New England does win, it will be by no more than 3-4. I will bet on 3. I feel NYG will win the turnover battle again. The Patriots have a lot of young players. BB has them in crazy 2-way roles. Hernandez as an RB ( he took 5 hand-offs in one game!), Edelman mimicking Troy Brown but can you see him covering a gazelle like Cruz? Even I gotta say, “C’mon Man!” The Gronk witnesses the first time in history that a TE can influence a line movement. He won’t be effective or able to go at all. High ankle sprains take weeks to heal-even for Superheroes. Did you see Big Ben in the ProBowl? Former players with similar injuries will tell you they can play the 1st half but once that injury has to sit through a 45 minute half-time they are usually rendered ineffective in the 2nd half.

The Pats have NO deep threat and Eli’s weapons pose more dangerous matchup problems.

As the game wears on I think the NYG defence becomes instrumental in them even pulling away-and yes, I am saying it, if there is going to be a blowout, it will be in the Giants favor. They are a much, much better team then when they first met this season with missing personnel back and others much healthier. NE’s improvements are not on the same scale and they played many cupcakes which saw them often have to come from behind. NYG will have the better run game (Bradshaw and Jacobs are beasts and perhaps cousins of Marshawn Lynch)) and BenJarvus Green-Ellis will struggle to get to 65 yards. I realize that NE can throw 4 different running backs at you but I expect Bradshaw to have a big game up the gut of the NE run defense. Brady will rely on his 3-5 step drop often to deliver quick slant route releases to his TE’s. NYG’s safeties will not be able to cover them effectively all day and it is not easy to get press coverage on 2 studs like NE’s TE’s. One reason why I feel Wes Welker will see a lot of balls his way. Linebackers will have to step up against the run as I feel BB will try to establish this early to buy Tom Brady time and protection. But this Giant’s pass rush will be a major factor in this game if they are successful to rattle, hurry, disturb timing and knock Brady down. NYG has the leadership and big game experience on that team and the coaching is not a big drop-off. I have seen lesser coaches actually take BB to the woodshed once or twice in the last 2 years. Special teams sees a LARGE edge to NE . Tom Brady is the biggest intangible if you can actually fathom that because he is so bent on winning this game but think of the tremendous pressure on him and his coach. We saw what pressure- and yes it was compounded by bad timing of scandalous crap- did to them 4 years ago. How many parallels can we draw to the road they both took to get here this year compared to 2007-2008?

On the other side the Gmen are loose and loving the ‘dog role on the road again. Eli playing in Big Brother’s house-I will leave that one for you to offer conjecture. Is the 9-7 team( that gave up more points against than for) relishing the role of David here to slaughter 13-3 Goliath yet again? Can a team beat a team 3 X in a row. Doing it one season is tough but this is not so formidable as many have been speculating. Do the Giants have the Patriots number now? Can a 9-7 team win the SB for the first time? Can a team with a bottom 5 ranked overall regular season defence win the SB for the first time in 46 years? (Hell, it is a pass happy league the likes of which have never been seen).

(In recent playoff bouts teams like NYG, Denver, Indy and Baltimore have taken down better NE defences but have never seen a spread offence like this from New England. Gronkowski’s ineffectiveness changes this remarkably. I think this NYG team –in its current form and with the roll they are on-is the best of these teams to play NE despite what their reg. season record indicates.)

Wherever you will be, company you are with, and the beverages and grub in which you will partake I truly wish you all a phenomenal day of SB XLVI festivities and fun.

PLAYS

NYG +4 ½ -130 10 units (I bought up this early as I do not see Pats winning by more than 3-4 worse case scenario)

NYG ML  +130    4 units

NYG –3 ½  +225   2 units (alternate line play)

UNDER 55.5         4 units   (I see this game hitting 44-52 points. Last 15 SB’s have seen only 4 hit this total and 2 of those hit 56 exactly. 11 of the last 15 on carpet have gone UNDER. I feel this 2nd time around sees defences imposing their will.

PARLAY: NYG +3/UNDER 55.5 (2 units to win approx. 6 units)

TEASER: NYG +9/UNDER 61   –120  (1.25 units)

FUTURES: $250 to win $5000 (20:1) NYG to win SB XLVI

PROPS: Which ½ has more scoring. 2nd H +OT –110  (2 units)   {hit 11 X in last 13 years}

Game ends by exactly a 3pt. margin +325 (1 unit)

No team scores 3X in a row (converts excluded) –140 (1 unit)

MVP SB XLVI

Cruz +800   (1 unit)

Nicks +1200   (.7 unit)   (before you think either is a longshot the SB MVP has been a WR 3 of the last 7 years. As the league becomes more pass happy ie. Almost 5 QB’s went for more than 5000 yards this year someone is on the other end of those balls. )

Note: I’m not a high roller and like many of you I am so frickin’ tired of hearing plays like  G.O.E. (Game of the Epoch) FOR A GAZILLION UNITS. My units are $250 ea. U.S.  currency.

FINAL SCORE PREDICTION:

NYG 28 NE 24 (17)

I can envision 30-17 NYG

Titoalways enjoy your stuff

Taz great to hear from you brutha

Europa

Joey

Metallica

Glad you enjoyed and may this game be a barnburner (but not too close and Enjoy your SB Party Immensely!!

KOAJ AMEN

DOCTERD

I THINK THIS HAS TO BE A RECORD FOR THE BEST WRITE UP THAT I HAVE EVER SEEN ON COVERS.....GOTTA GIVE YOU PROPS MY MAN..........GOODLUCK ON THE GIANTS AS WELL....

Sully,

That is much appreciated my man!

XFL - looks like you had an awesome season...

thoughts on welker over / under 6.5 receptions today? -175....too much juice? thx

NYC Money,

I think Welker will net 10 catches today for 105-125 yards.

However, I feel that is too much juice.

I hate laying even -150 on a prop.(let alone anything)

NYC

SEA2LV

Manassa,

Same to you brother.

We "gots" to get some of that helmet pine tar Tyree used!

WISHING EVERYONE REGARDLESS OF YOUR SIDE ( unless you are on NE...) AND PLAYS A GREAT DAY, a safe day and party hearty  but responsibly!

It is time for me to get my party on!

Just before I'm out of here I added 2 scoring props:

NYG  to win by a margin of 4-6 pts. +500 ( .4 unit)

NYG to win by a margin of 11-13 pts. +1000 ( .4 unit)

These support 3 scores that are resonating with me:

28-24

28-17

30-17

ENJOY!

xfl