You might want to see this.

Here's a chart you might want to look at. The number to the right of the opponent is the opponent's defensive rank. The 17-32 column shows the results vs teams ranked from 17-32 defensively. The 1-16 column shows resuts vs teams ranked from 1-16 defensively. As you can see from the chart, The 49ers play well, as long as they are playing some crappy NFC team that has no defense. They generally get their asses kicked when facing a team with a good defense.  Click the link to see the chart.

https://ibb.co/YhNWFCd

Sample size for SF vs top 16 teams is extremely small, and this is kind of a simplistic view. 

By that logic, KC is worse at beating shitty teams than they are at beating good ones - how much sense does that make?

It makes a lot of sense.  They have trouble getting motivated for a lesser opponent.  They usually have a several game lead in their division.

This chart also highlights how weak the schedule was for the 49ers this season.  Four games with teams ranked in the top 16 defensively?  They lost 3 of them?

Meaningless.

Niners:

vs CLE - Weather was a factor, we've seen Brock struggle in the rain. Moody missed 2 FGs, one was for the game. Also Deebo, CMC, and Trent got hurt.
vs MIN - No Deebo and no Trent Williams (This is a bottom tier OL WITH Trent).
vs BAL - Game got away from them with the interceptions (1 bad read, 3 lucky tips) but they were easily moving the ball on BAL.

Chiefs:

vs PHI - Lost 17-21 who Niners destroyed 42-19.
vs GB - Lost 19-27 who didn't have Aaron Jones and run a similar offense to the Niners.
vs LVR - Lost 14-20 with O'Connell only completing 9 passes and giving up 145 yards to Zamir White.

Niners had some losses against the top 16 defenses but Chiefs had bad losses to the bottom 16 defenses.

@warrenator

 It’s just more mumbo jumbo. All this tells you is that SF had an easier schedule. It doesn’t prove the negative space, 3 losses out of 4 games is too small a sample size to say anything. 

@vgb824

All very good points.  I considered all of this too, I'm just mainly betting on Mahomes, who has been absolute gold in the postseason, and in the underdog role.

@Jimmy_Cats

 People need to just say this rather than obfuscate with inconclusive data. 

@Jimmy_Cats

 Agreed Mahomes is amazing especially as an underdog.

@rosswin97

 Of course it was bias I was arguing against what the post was claiming.

[Quote: It’s just more mumbo jumbo. All this tells you is that SF had an easier schedule. It doesn’t prove the negative space, 3 losses out of 4 games is too small a sample size to say anything.[/Quote]

It's the NFL.  How big of a sample size do you expect for one season?  Besides 1-3, while KC is 9-2 in the same situation seems like it may "say something."

Not to me.

@warrenator 

Meaningless? . . .  be careful what you wish for? 

@Jimmy_Cats

THK

If there were conclusive data preceding the game, nobody would bet.  The only conclusive data is the final score.

@Jimmy_Cats

@Jimmy_Cats

 Right, but this data isn’t even something you could feed a model and get even a modicum of accuracy. All it would say is that SF had an easier schedule. 

Sagarin May be more useful

@MrBator

 Who are you taking today MrBator? 

It is not intended to "feed a model."  It just shows that the 49ers have not played well against better than average defenses in the four games in which they played against them. It shows that they have consistantly beaten poor defenses. Sure, there are many aspects of this game that I've not covered here. It simply points out a situation in which the 49ers have played poorly, while the Chiefs have played much better in that same situation. This is just an observation of FACTS that have occurred. I've offered no opinion, no interpretation of this data. I've simply presented data in format of my choosing. There is no disputing this information. You can to ignore it, if you wish, but this is what happened.  

You nailed it Jimmy_C !! The KC motivation factor especially applies to Mahomes. He can play really uninspired football in some regular season games but rises to a much higher level for the big games. 

good info @Jimmy_Cats

check out 2goodhahaha’s writeup if you haven’t already 

@vgb824  

 @MrBator  

 @Macwestie1  

 @Supat125  

 @Indydog  

 @SourSausage  

 @Bonekrusher  

 @JumpyGathers  

 @Mangowoman  

Thanks for the comments guys.  They did it!  Chiefs won Super Bowl 58!  They've won 3 out of 5 Super Bowls, have been in 4 out of 5 Super Bowls, and won back to back Super Bowls!  First team in 20 years to win 2 in a row.  The Chiefs are a football dynasty.