What line can’t you get over this week? What’s the obvious pick you really like?
The pick that looks obvious to me is:
Seattle -4.5. I get that Miami still has a talented roster but if you look at their QB’s game logs it is quite unimpressive. Factor in the travel and that stadium, McDonald’s familiarity with their roster, and yeesh, it could be a long day.
I think I rated that one down to a coin flip, but I hear ya. That team is red hot, OL is playing surprisingly well, and Kubiak/Carr and Co are rolling.
Meanwhile, Eagles have to feel snakebit after Monday.
I will have to circle back on this one. Thanks for your post and BOL 
I got both GB and Tenn wrong last week (faded GB, backed Tenn).
This week I capped it for GB and bought half a point to get to GB+3.
Just not a Levis fan, and I think he turns the ball over this weekend at least once or twice.
But hey, fade me - your sides are prob doing better than mine this season lol. BOL
That’s what threw me for a loop. Their defense shut down Anthony Richardson.
They ran the ball most of the time against that Colts defense and took the ball out of Malik Willis’ hands, ran 75% of the time I think. (Looked it up - 53 runs, 14 passes). I had bet against them last week because I had no faith in Willis
I could see other teams having a better defensive performance than the Colts
He has 4 INTs. As a lifelong Bronco fan, all I can do is laugh. He is horrible. -170 to throw a pick this week. I think it is guaranteed.
Sean Payton is doing him zero favors. He has passed the ball 35 and 42 times in his first two NFL games. Nix is also the leading rusher for the Broncos and was high rusher in both games for Broncos.
The Broncos are BAD. It’s only a matter of time before the defense loses it.
There are a few I like this week…..colts bolts saints Vikes
if Herbert is okay I would say the chargers ML +100 are my best play
they currently rank #2 in rushing yards
#2 in defense yards allowed
Defense ranks #1 in
EPA per play (0.465)
total points allowed (13)
opposing offense success rate allowed (30.6 percent).
Saints -2.5......might as well be -12.5 as they will toy with this very spotty eagle D.
How are the Eagles D. going to stop this O. machine right now as the Saints finished LY with also?
Also looks like cb Lattimore will be back for this game to travel with Philly's only threat at receiver Smith.
S. Barkley is going to have to control this game to even keep it close but with the Saints ahead probably all game + bigger as it goes on that is unlikely + Hurts is not a come from behind type passing talent esp. with very little at WR at this time to help him out.
Play of the year type game here.
Saints 37-17
yeah I know, small sample size, but the stats still have some value
compared to Steelers, the Chargers have a 2+ yards per play differential advantage, which is significant
And they haven’t played great teams but neither have the Steelers
I like Tomlin but I have more faith in Harbaugh who has a 44-28-2 ATS record as HC, that’s my deciding factor
In 2010 49ers were 6-10 then hired Harbaugh who got them to a 13-4 record in his first year, losing in the conf championship
he went 9-0-1 ATS in first 10 games as 49ers HC, maybe he can do something similar for the bolts
Established in 1995,
Saints -2 even easier 
Ravens -1 runner up 
adding to the list of e z pics 
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