To hedge or not to hedge, here is the math and why hedging is a bad idea....

MUST READ!!!!!!

Vanzack you numbers are OFF.

If you DONT HEDGE you can either win 1000 or lose 100.  When you average out +1000 and -100 you don't get +500.  You get +450.  When you DO HEDGE you will win 424 if you do it right.  So yes, you are still paying a vig to hedge but not as much as you suggested.  Its $26 for a $100 parlay instead of $76 for a $100 parlay like you had said. 

I am just going to hire KOAJ as my spokesperson.

What he says is exactly what I have said numerous times in this thread.  Yes, I am taking back less money but the bottom line is, I am taking back money.  I like the known vs. the unknown.  I don't want to have to lose 5 straight parlays and hope that the 6th one finally hits.  To each his own.

Vanzack, one of my local bookies offers A/R (Action/Reverse) for games. How do you feel about those? Probability-wise, I'm pretty sure it's a bad deal to take games at different start times, but I think it'd okay to do if they are overlapping games. Do you know the math involved with A/Rs?

Koaj / Devilfan -

You both have said that you want "guaranteed" money even if that means you are willing to take less than you deserve.

My question is how much are less are you willing to take?

I brought up earlier a craps example, but let me give a football example.  You have a 110 dollar bet on the colts PK vs the pats.  Its halftime and the colts are up 28-0.  You are looking good to win your 100 profit on your bet.

Your bookie calls you and offers you a buyout of your bet.  Guaranteed money right?  He offers you 25 bucks.  Its guaranteed money, but far less than your EV, but as devilfan says "EV cant buy you a hotdog and I want to win today".

My question to you guys is how do you measure what that guarantee is worth to you?  Would you take 5 bucks guaranteed money for that bet?  How about 98 bucks?

I have yet to understand from either of you that on the parlay question that you use any kind of measure to see just how much you are actually giving away to get the guarantee.  My example above is exactly the same as the parlay, but I have a good idea that you are not using any measure to see just how much money you are losing by taking the "guarantee", and Im surprised that neither of you even care to know.

Opinions?

  There is no set rule.  If had a good week , I would let it roll.  If I was even  or down a bit for the week , I would hedge .  Its better than digging in my own pocket to put on a new set a tires  that the car needs badly.

    Of course with bigger amounts , I would hedge somethng for sure.