03/22/2022 Puck Talk

Morning Gentlemen and Jules 

Post trade day. Who were your winners and losers? Personal opinion (and you know what they say about opinions, if not ask me) Avs, Wild and Flames from the West and everyone but the Canes and Leafs in the East. Don't get me wrong Leaf fans, the reason I think you weren't a winner is the same as the Oil. Those teams did not address the real problem, goalie. Let's look at the East Jarry, Vas, Bob, Igor, hell Swayman. Do you really think Campbell can go into a series being better? I don't. Hell, he stays injured, he's the Greg Oden of the Leafs. Wild, MAF, game changer. (again, thank you Rutherford, you dumbarse). Avs just added speed and more speed but I am still not sold on Darci. Would take MAF and Markstrom over him in a series. In the East, hold on to your hats. It is a wide open race with both Florida teams on the inside (imo). Like Florida, but I am old school. To be the man, you still have to beat the man. Bolts added some quiet pieces but they still have Vas. Pens? Great pick-up (if he can stay healthy) but it all comes down to Jarry for them. Rangers? They have the netminder to steal a series or two. Canes, like you, but unless you can find some offensive output, you won't win a series vs Pens, Cats, Bolts and I might would even throw in the Leafs and Campbell as he might be able to shut that team down. About 20 games, give or take, to go. Should get interesting. 

Tonight, briefly. Couple of key match-ups. Blues/Caps both teams could get key plays back (Oshie/Tarasenko). Blues 3-7 last 10 and falling in the standings. Canes/Bolts. Watch in typical fashion, the Canes win and score like 4. Canes have played 7 playoff teams in the last 10 games and are 2 and 5 vs those teams. I just don't like the schedule here for the Bolts again and imo, the line wants people to jump on the Bolts, but might have to play the Canes in this one. Vegas b2b vs Jets. Vegas is 3 and 5 in b2b this year. Jets are in the do or die time. Oil b2b vs Stars. Oil 3 and 4 in b2b's. Same as last game, Dallas in the do or die time. Preds b2b vs Kings. Preds 5 and 4 in b2b's. Kings, no Doughty. Old stats but Preds are 9-1 last 10 vs Kings. Other games and I haven't had time to dig. Getting golf in today as storms are coming tomorrow. 

What do you want to talk about? 

Great writeup as usual Doc, it was a interesting deadline for sure, personally would have liked my Leafs to do more but then I don't know about the machinations of being a GM in the NHL.

I totally agree with your opinion on how things could turn out in the playoffs in your "ass"essment (see what I did there) lol 

Early questions:

How is NYR not a bigger favorite against the Devils after winning 4 of their last 5 and 2 of those wins were against very good competition? Meanwhile the Devils have lost their last 3 by a score of 6-3 and they are only +125? I also ask how Pittsburgh could be such monster favorites  (-350) against CBJ who are winners of 4 of their last 5 just like Pitt? I guess you could point to those wins being against the likes of STL, OTT, VGK, and MINN (when MINN was struggling). Then again, Pitt's wins were against similar caliber opponents minus 1 team in ARI, STL, CAR, VGK. Don't get me wrong, pitt is far better but these odds are really big all things considered. 

And damn, the Lightning have played in a lot of unders lately. Throw that in with Carolina's inability to score much and it seems too busy but like Doc said, this would be the game the Hurricanes put up 4. I'd feel more comfortable with them as a side. More questions in a bit. 

@Omega_pix

 Thought the same thing about the Rags game and Pens game. Cbus considers Pens biggest rival. Pens are in a battle for seeding. The Rags game is more questionable than the Pens imo. Maybe the loss of Domi . But as I stated, the fishy line of the night is Canes being a fav vs Bolts. In my simple gambling mind (maybe AJ can input), that line is begging for Tampa money. Oh look, Tampa is positive money vs a team that has lost 4 in a row vs playoff teams. Go look at Bolts schedule. Away for 2 weeks, home for one game then back on the road. Don't like it. Gets a little tougher from here on out. Actually, I do find that betting on teams that have missed the playoffs is a little easier at times. 

@GASportsDoc

 100% agree with you about the Carolina line and I'm on them in some form tonight.

Also, I know you keep an eye on those pesky Sens and tonight might be a game where +1.5 with them is a good deal because Islands do not beat many teams by the PL. Lots of 1 goal games. 

also don't like VGK at all and lean the Jets. but I'm not sure how much I like them at this point. 

Omega, yea that Pens line is way too low for my liking, I am however going to jump on that NYR line before they announce the starters. I have Igor as projected but would still take it with Georgiev against a struggling Devils team that really did nothing at the deadline to improve for now or the future smh.

Hurricanes only -120 seems like a trap or is it TB +105 a trap? 

Penguins -340 LOL They gonna be in a lot of parlays . L

Devils play the NYR tuff 

Red wings will cruise by the flyers 

Ottawa Upset today

GL Men

Love this thread. Love the input. Sherriffics, I'm with ya on much of what you wrote. 

Too bad Calgary is -350. They should handle the Sharks tonight at home. 

Man, I loved Carolina going into today but...

TB last played on the 19th so it isn't like they are coming in too tired. They aren't playing tomorrow. Is the loss to NYR really going to keep them down? How will Carolina respond after such a huge output of shots in their last game only to lose to NYR? It's tough for teams to replicate that kind of play the next game. But where this situation is a little different is Carolina has lost 4 straight and have to be hungry for a win and to prove themselves. But seeing everyone and their motha' on them tonight makes me want to look the other way or avoid it all together. That last part shouldn't really influence any decision but it's hard to ignore sometimes. I still like the over. Which means you should take CAR and the under 

Pribably Goalies according to rotowire...

David Rittich Nashville. 

Korpisalo CBJ.

Logan Thompson LVK.

Possible lots of goals.  Pens n over, Kings n over Jets n over.

Hey GA...this is a great thread you get going each day. I haven't chimed in yet but it's a good read to see info and opinions on the games. Didn't really like any plays yesterday but I liked your take on the Preds

Hi Guys good thread ...

I think they pegged that Canes and Light line right based on the IDK comments in this thread.

Just to give you a little back ground info I chart line movement and closing lines, by the month for both sides and totals

Lately Scoring has been down as the PO's draw nearer teams tighten up defensively but I also think the TD has some impact. Players get nervous if they know they are on the trade block and their games suffers this ripples through the team as play is not as crisp. Anyways just a theory I have no verifiable proof of that.

So back today, on my chart I have 3 games trending toward an Over ( Stl/was, VgK/Wpg, Edm/Dal ) and one Under ( SJS/CGY) the rest are 50/50 plays O/U.

The GS opened 67.5 and the juice is trickling up towards the over. The sum total of the 11 games is 64 goals or 6.2 / game...but the variance of 3.5 between the GS and Sum tells me all I need to know.

I played the over 67.5 at Pinnacle on the GS, they are asking for Under money

GL and enjoy the games

@Powerz

 Good stuff brother 

Playing their third game in four days, Edmonton will be fatigued. In their last seven games after playing an overtime game the previous day, the Oilers are 1-6 SU. Back the rested Stars tonight boys 

I hope you're right about the Red Wings. 

@Theplay

 Dallas also playing 3 in 4 days. both teams plkaying 4th in 6 days,Dallas off a long road trip, Oilers is the play

.

@Puckhandler

 Dallas does well against Edmonton recently having won six of the last nine games against the Oilers. The teams have played once this season. Dallas won at home 4-1 back in November. I’ll stick with them plus there not on BTB nights good luck 

Both teams played a lot...Dallas 4-1 in the 4th game of 4 in 6, Edmonton coming off OT in altitude...I'm taking Dallas at home 

Also taking Calgary -0.5 1st period...opposite records in 1st periods for Cal and SJ, Calgary at home 

3 early plays and contemplating others:

New York State of mind. 

Rangers ML - I'll bite this smelly line. Rangers are 8-2 last 10 meetings. Rangers have all their new pieces in place which might be concerning but Rangers just can't give up points at this point. 

Isles in regulation - Damn I hate to go against the Pesky Sens but Isles are playing for pride at this point. 

Blues tt over 2.5 - Blues are in a funk, however, the Blues have scored 3 or more in 6 of last 10 and Washington has given up 3 or more in 7 of last 10. In Vanecek's last 6 starts, he has only held Columbus and Seattle under 3. Surely, the Blues offense is better than those 2. 

Leaned on Canes but can't do it. They need to show me something before I put my money on them. Wings tt was also in play but I'll pass. 

Looking at the Stars and Preds in the late games. 

Goodluck Doc. I like the Boltz. Since the line is shady as hell, Im staying away 

The prop bet of the night should be "If Tampa Bay played with no goalie for the entire game, how many goals would Carolina score"? I'd bet under a 1/2 goal for a limit bet.